$300 re-entry MTT, 30k stacks, usually 120 entries or so. Table for the most part has been playing typical live MTT, fairly straight-forward, not overly aggressive.

Still early-ish. 150/300/25.

UTG female, 30's, straight forward - limps with 8500.
UTG+1, unknown limps
MP, tag limps

Hero with 20k on BTN has 9d9c and raises to 1200. Hero's image is somewhere between lag and tag.
BB, loose passive type calls and limpers call. BB, UTG1 and MP1 cover hero, they have between 25k-35k.

Flop: Qd5d8h. Checked to hero.

My friend and I disagree on flop play, need some help settling the debate.
1. Check or bet?
2. If betting is correct, what sizing?

Bet...~2800-3000 (between 1/2 and 2/3 of the pot). I would continuation bet that flop against those opponents most of the time based on your description. You have back door flush and straight draws in addition to the fact that you could be good.

Moar pre. At least 1500 IMO.

5 ways I'm just checking it.

What he said.

If I'm raising into several limpers, I'm putting out about a pot-sized bet or even a little more. And I'm not c-betting 99's into a crowd. I don't like to c-bet into more than one or two callers.

1700 preflop, give or take. You are just inviting players into the pot with this small raise and you aren't going to like very many flops at all.

Against this many players, I'm thankful I get to try and hit for free. Checking behind always here.

Well, 48% odds someone holds at least a Q. Way too many players stayed in hand. Very common for this stage of tourney. Limping /calling 2.8 raise. Most players are hoping to hit "freak" flop. May wind up hitting 2 pair etc. 9s are as good as dead in this scenario. Even AA is only at 47% 5 handed.

Thanks for the replies. The second part of our debate is what to do with the conclusion of the flop action.

BB folds. UTG shoves for 7300, the others fold and it's 5200 to call for a pot of 15,700. Our info on UTG is: female, 30's, straight forward player.
I suppose this is just a straight math question based on how we range her? What range do you put her on?

So what you mean is that Hero C-bet 2100 on the button into a pot of +/- 6200, BB fold, UTG check-raise to 7300, folds to Hero. Right?

First of all that is a little short for a c-bet into 4 runners IMO. Especially with such a juicy flop, straight and flush draws plus an over-card. If you are going to c-bet, which I think is asking for trouble, do you want to give the draws such a good price? I would think at least half the pot or more, even 2/3 pot or pot sized, would be better than 1/3 of the pot.

Anyway Q-10, Q-9/8 suited, 6/7dd are all hands she might have limp/called with. But it doesn't really matter at this point. Hero c-bet and invited this raise. Hero is lucky nobody else called. Hero is getting 3 to 1 on a call and could be ahead of at least some hands she would limp pre-flop and check-raise now, like 8/9 or 7/8, or 6/7 no diamonds or some kind of flush draw. Hero painted himself into a corner, and now he has to pay the piper. Call.

Chicks dont semi bluff

Well go ahead and fold then. I'll loan you my bic lighter to burn up the rest of your money later.

I'm trying to determine if the call of the check raise is close or not. Trying to range an UTG limp call, then CR from straight-forward female in her 30's. Anything you would add or take away from this range?
88, 55, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, AdKd, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AQo, KQo, QJo

88,AQs,AdKd,AQo I'd auto rule out with a limp pre flop. and I doubt hands like AJ,AT she is limping with ether A9 and below sure she could be.

I'd Call her bet see if we improve or not if we do check/call behind turn and river.

88, AK-A10 suited or off-suit, seem like hands she would bet or check-raise pre-flop. 7/6 all suits, many will ditch the lower suited connectors and only call 8/7 and above, but others will call them. I think you can add all the suits if her connectors include an 8.

If she is really straight-forward, I'm not sure if she has suited connectors as many basic players will not bet the draws.

There will be at least some bluffs in her range with the short stack, I think it would be pretty rare to find a player with no bluffs. JB's assertion notwithstanding, I know 3 women that are poker players, two of them are part of the rotating cast that is in a home game I play in, and they both have calling-station tendencies. But they all know how to bluff and a semi-bluff is well within their capabilities.

IMO her range here will really be Q/x and A/8, maybe 55, maybe A/x dd - J/10 dd, with a little bit of air and not much else.

If I knew how she lost 2/3 of her chips so early that might change my opinion.

She's got 9s crushed

I agree but I think he still has to call.

Board: Qd5d8h

Robb’s range for UTG
Equity Win Tie
UTG 78.40% 78.35% 0.05% { 88, 55, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, AdKd, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AQo, KQo, QJo }
BU 21.60% 21.55% 0.05% { 9d9c }

2pairsof2s range
Equity Win Tie
UTG 70.98% 70.93% 0.05% { 55, KQs, Q8s+, JdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, A8o, KQo, QTo+ }
BU 29.02% 28.97% 0.05% { 9d9c }

Your range basically eliminates ATs and 88 that are in my range, and that gives 99 a call, since we're getting 3:1. I do acknowledge the ATs/88 part of the range I gave her is somewhat unlikely given her limp. But I balance that by including some other hands that 99 is beating that are also unlikely preflop imo, such as Jd8d.

In reality, I made my range for her a bit looser than I truly believe, to give my friend the benefit of the doubt. He held the 99 and believed it was a clear call of the CR. If her true range is closer to 2pairsof2s range, we do in fact have a clear call.

She had a set of 5's.

i think its a big mistake to rely soley on math in spots like this. range equity is nice but not important in a spot where a little common sense tells you thats not the line she takes with AQ or AK and a lot of other dumb hands included in both of those ranges.

the problem here is that if you just look at the hand in a vacuum, her action is screaming strength of an already made hand or at best, a fistpump mega draw. i dont care about history or previous hands, this is never ever a bluff, its clear she believes her hand is the best.

You described her as straight forward so I doubt she is doing this even on a draw into a pfr that bet a drawy flop into 5 players,id fold flop easily

1600-1800 pre, check back flop 5 ways. If we were heads-up or even 3-way I'd be perfectly fine with a 1/3 to 1/2 pot c-bet to deny equity to overcard combos.

As played this is a fold. We're going to have sets, overpairs, and all of our good Qx hands and strong diamond draws that we can consider continuing with. We don't need to call with second pair here to a check-raise, and having the 9d is actually kind of bad because it eliminates some of the flush draw/combo draw hands our opponent may have. 99 is near the bottom of our value bet range here (if it even should be in our value bet range at all) so folding it is certainly reasonable.

Check flop multiway, easy fold as played (even vs a combo draw we're not doing really well against )
I'll also check some Qx for pot control and as well to balance (not that it matters in a 300$ mtt) but our hand does pretty bad vs x/raises , unless I have good reads.


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If we cbet polar, our decision vs x/r is much more comfortable . Check flop, more pre vs 3 limpers. I'd make it 1800-2100 to go.

agree with most above...if you are gonna raise pre your sizing needs to be larger and with this many villains in the pot I don't like a cbet here. I would rather check call against the last to act villain if it checks around to him and he bets in positon. Check any turn card and see what his turn action is.

1.5k pre check flop

Fire flop all day. 3k. Like he said above 48% somebody hit at least a queen. So 52% your good. Your preflop play is just a horrible bet. I love set mining here 50+bb. All the limpers if we was in a cash game weed bump big but we don't wanna risk earlier position lingers tramping us for so much of our stack. Its a great spot preflop to just set mine. Flop a 9 in position and you might just double up considering 3 of r players have you covered.

She has a bit over a pot-sized bet on the flop, so the question is which hands she would just shove in with instead of checking. Would she jam with a flush draw or would she check in the hopes of getting a free card? On the other hand, would she just shove with a hand that fears giving a free card to a possible flush draw? How you answer these questions affects how you should play this hand.

I could see her having a range that looks like QJs/QTs/88/55 plus any flush draws that she check-raises with, and maybe hands like JJ/TT/99.

Let's talk about the queens in her range. It is possible that she would have shoved pre with AQ and maybe KQ. If she didn't, she might be prone to open-shoving those on the flop because she can be called by worse queens. As you start to get down to a hand like QJ, some players see open-shoving as less attractive because they remember being called by top pairs with better kickers in similar spots in the past. So, if she has Qx here, it is more likely to be QJ/QT rather than AQ/KQ. Even though a flush should be almost as scary to a set as to top pair, a lot of players are more willing to check a set on a wet board and go for a check-raise.

This feels like a hand where your decision will be influenced by live reads. What was her demeanor when check-raising? How long did she take? It's an easier call against a player who seems to be thinking that she can't fold so she may as well go all-in. It may be an easier fold against a player who seems to be thinking that she has the best hand and expects to be called.