Hi grinders,

here's a hand that bothered me a lot in the Day 2 (final day) of the tournament.

Context: MTT deepstack (500 BBs starting stack, level 40 mins) around 40 players left, 26 ITM, 9-handed, except MP2 (50BBs) and BB (30-35 BBs), everyone is between 10-20 BBs. After 20-30 minutes of play comes this spot

Blinds: 5k / 10k / 2k antes

- Hero (UTG 2) opens 2.2 BBs with KQo with 18-19 BBs, and sets himself with the classical stöical position and sight he makes when is opening a pot.
- BU, after staring at me for around 20 seconds, shoves 15-16 BBs.

The hand before, Vilain reshoved 10 BBs from the SB on a BU open and showed JJ.

Hero started talking to Vilain (seems decent player at first sight) to obtain information:

- << It looks like you have been pretty active from the beginning of the day, Sir>>
- << If you mean I shoved 3 times in the last 10 minutes, YES >>
- << Exactly >>
- << You know here I'm shoving 77+, AJ+>>
- << Yeah, I know, but maybe there's also a couple of funky/bluff hands in your range, so maybe it would be easier for me to call >>
- << Yeah, maybe I can also shove with a pair of 2>>

It has been a long time that I haven't done equity calculations.

Here are my two questions:
- are the ranges evoked in the discussion above realistic? (I guess Yes totally). Is it a call or a fold if we only consider the mathematical side of this spot?
- if after running the numbers it's a slightly EV+ call, can we also decide to fold ???, because we will still have 16-17-18 BBs and almost all stack at table are in the zone between 10-25 BBs, meanging we will have other spot to steal

Finally, on the moment I decided to fold because of this evaluation:
- I don't want to see AK, AQ.
- Considering stack sizes and dynamic, I think there's going to be other spots better than flipping the coin agains an important part of his range.
- The only hand i'll be glad to be against is KJ.

So, I folded and he showed JJ.

Probably giving an active BTN vs UTG+2 open something like 55+ AJ, KQs which we have 35% against with KQo. It looks like we need closer to 40% with some rough calcs (calling 140k to win 200k). KQs is marginally losing, but will become a call if he widens to ATs, KJs & 44.

66 looks like the top of folding range from what I can see, so we should call something like: 77+, AJs+, AQo+ as default and then maybe add KQs, 66 if we think he's going wider than that.

Good solid fold!