Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
given ICM i think potting the flop to shove turn is actually ideal with your 3b range. this isnt the flop to halfpot AKo and leave weird psr on turn.
This may be true (hard to know since there's really no way to calc optimal postflop ICM lines) but as a general strat it's def sub-optimal. I think it's very difficult to properly weight ICM as a variable when constructing a postflop strat.
OP didn't give any reads with respect to hero's 3-betting strat (appears that 3betting a linear range* from the BB vs this villain would be best) or villain's postflop tendencies, so hard to criticize flop bet sizing since hero could have been inducing/making a explo-play with the top of his range* otf.
In the sim I ran, using 3 cbet sizing options (44,66,100) Pio prefers the 44% sizing with almost all of hero's range and it wants to continue betting AA/KK ~35% (for the sizing villain used) ott, or c/shove - it has almost no c/c range ott. Seems like a decent ICM adjustment we could make is b/f** the turn some % of the time as opposed to c/c; c/decide river vs a villain who is capable of turning marginal sdv into bluffs on bad river cards?
If we get to the river with cbet 200; c/c turn then it wants to call all the AA combos. If we mess around with diff 3bet ranges then AA with no heart can be a fold (and a call with the AhAx combos ~85% of the time.)
With respect to JJ;TT being > bluffcatchers, it's not valid to compare since JJ;TT shouldn't get to the river at anywhere near the same freq (given the fact they they require >>> protection.)
Obv argument against calling is villain's sizings ott and otr generate little to no FE.
*(not truly) Linear 3bet range used in sim:5.66%: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT:0.5,AK,AQs,AQo:0.65,AJs,AJo:0.25,AT s:0.25,KQs,KQo:0.25,KJs:0.65,QJs:0.65
**with entire range - prob a close to 0 freq with AA combos though