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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-20-2017, 06:49 PM   #1
WorldResident
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ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

ITM with 280 people remaining. 4 hands ago I have been moved to this table. I Sharkscoped them UTG+2 has made 32k profit on Cereus(last mtt in 2011), PS is blocked. MP3 is a fish. Preflop/OTF is standard I guess. On the turn I made my bet a bit larger because of the wet board (straight draws/flush draws) and a J would call probably with this bet. Now my question is. How would you play this hand on the turn? Would you jam/call/fold?

My thought process for jamming:
V1 UTG+2 would cbet AK, KT and sets on this wet flop. So I put him on semi blufs like QJ, Axss, maybe some suited connectors like T9ss and 98ss. The only value hand is 88 I guess? QQ and JJ would probably just float.


    Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 315 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37684087

    UTG+2: 85,986 (34.4 bb)
    MP1: 166,556 (66.6 bb)
    MP2: 22,537 (9 bb)
    MP3: 45,777 (18.3 bb)
    CO: 111,327 (44.5 bb)
    BTN: 19,255 (7.7 bb)
    SB: 115,236 (46.1 bb)
    Hero (BB): 67,011 (26.8 bb)
    UTG+1: 43,360 (17.3 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K 7
    UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 5,000, 2 folds, MP3 calls 5,000, 3 folds, Hero calls 2,500

    Flop: (19,085) 5 K T (3 players)
    Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks

    Turn: (19,085) 8 (3 players)
    Hero bets 11,042, UTG+2 raises to 25,000, MP3 folds, Hero raises to 61,696 and is all-in


    What would you do OTT?
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    Old 03-20-2017, 07:44 PM   #2
    spand42
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    I'd fold this pre, might defend with K7s.

    If you think he's bluffing more often that not, why do you need to 3Bet shove the turn? You can just call and see what happens on the river.

    It's a tough spot which is why K7o OOP is a fold preflop.
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    Old 03-20-2017, 09:27 PM   #3
    daviid
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    pre is fine, id b/f turn though for sure. u are at the bottom of your value betting range and you even have a blocker to quite a few bluff combos. easy fold.
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    Old 03-21-2017, 04:07 AM   #4
    spand42
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daviid View Post
    and you even have a blocker to quite a few bluff combos.
    7h6h is the only possible bluffing hand that we block...

    We have no spade and no broadway card to go with our king and if he was bluffing, he'd probably pick some kind of broadway hand, maybe a flush draw.

    However I agree in general that bet/fold here is best because I just think that him bluffraising the turn is less likely when he chose not to bluff the flop in a much more credible spot.
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    Old 03-21-2017, 09:17 AM   #5
    onehandatatime
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    agree folding pre isn't bad here vs EP opening and MP flatting. As played I also agree that b/f is probably the best option here and the sizing is a little big here OTT.
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    Old 03-21-2017, 02:09 PM   #6
    WorldResident
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    I get great odds to call preflop. I am not folding with a hand like K7o.



    You guys seem to agree to b/f here. But by what range of hands am I beaten than?



    @spand42 I jam to take the pot down immediately. There are too many bad cards on the river.
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    Old 03-21-2017, 02:10 PM   #7
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    Thnx for your comments btw!
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    Old 03-21-2017, 04:16 PM   #8
    nomalice
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    no one would check turn ?
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    Old 03-21-2017, 05:43 PM   #9
    Shortfuse
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nomalice View Post
    no one would check turn ?
    I think check turn is good.
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    Old 03-21-2017, 05:45 PM   #10
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    What would be your reason to check?
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    Old 03-21-2017, 06:20 PM   #11
    onehandatatime
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by WorldResident View Post
    What would be your reason to check?
    maybe to get to showdown cheaply
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    Old 03-21-2017, 07:11 PM   #12
    nomalice
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by WorldResident View Post
    What would be your reason to check?
    its one of the weakest kings in our range + I dont see that we need much protection here,most combodraws/nuts fds would bet OTF. dont pump up the pot just because u have top pair, and dont overplay hands in bottom of your range. I actually think that u get more value by check calling here.

    +

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by onehandatatime View Post
    maybe to get to showdown cheaply
    (because we dont need to pump up the pot with the hands in bottom of our range)


    leading 60%+ will fold some draws / midpairs that we beat of the OR pretty frequent, so if u lead - lead less and if he raises - call. 3betting is aweful, if he's bluffing u re making him to fold his bluffs,and as I said, i expect most of the draws to bet otf so either he got set/KT either u re upfront a lot. but thats irrelevant actually, check turn next time.

    Last edited by nomalice; 03-21-2017 at 07:29 PM. Reason: spelling mistake. would like to know to fix grammar also.
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    Old 03-21-2017, 08:40 PM   #13
    2pairsof2s
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    Just fold pre, because most of the time you'll miss the flop entirely, and when you don't miss, you'll be out of position, usually with no better than a pair of 7's K kicker or a pair of K's 7 kicker which are both bad hands that will cost you chips in the long run. The few times you flop 2 pairs or trips will probably not make up for the dozens of times you don't. As played I don't see how the all in will fold anything that beats you, and I don't see how any vaguely competent player will call off stacks with anything you beat, so thumbs down on the raise. But save yourself the grief and just toss the crap hands preflop.

    Last edited by 2pairsof2s; 03-21-2017 at 08:45 PM.
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    Old 03-22-2017, 02:06 AM   #14
    SetSetter
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    I don't love completing the BB in this spot preflop, even if we are getting OMG pot-odds. We're OOP; stacks are shortish; facing an early position open from a strong vill; and our hand has terrible reverse-implied odds and just flops terribly.

    As played, folding OTT. What can we beat?
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    Old 03-22-2017, 08:25 AM   #15
    gregz41
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    I think there's a difference between k7o and Q2o pre flop here three ways. I'd call the former and fold the latter.

    We get good odds in the BB, especially with an ante. That being said, I'd call tighter than I would in a heads up pot even though we receive better odds multiway. The threshold to value bet/equity needed to bluff requires a stronger hand than in heads up. Additionally, when you factor in that it's easier to be out kicked, these factors cause you to under realise significantly.

    That being said, on the turn I think this is close between a bet and a check. When in doubt, lead towards the former with made hands.
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    Old 03-22-2017, 06:13 PM   #16
    spand42
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    Re: ITM Big 11. Wet board, shoving or not?

    IMO you've got to be really good postflop to navigate a hand like K7o OOP. Most of the time you're just checkfolding and you rarely flop that well where you're comfortable, you're having to do a lot guesswork as to whether your hand is good or not.

    That's why K7o is a clear fold for me, but I know my limitations and I'm not the best in the field.
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