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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-19-2017, 11:13 AM   #1
BrianBoyko
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$AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

Hero has t3500, Villian has t2000 at this stage in the tourney. (18 players out of an initial 50).

Hero has just been moved from another table, so hasn't had time to build a table image of himself. Nine players at the table. Most players have around t3000.

Preflop:

Ante: t10, SB: t50, BB: t100.
SB posts t50, BB (Hero) posts t100.
Pot is t240 to start.

Folds to HJ(Vil).
HJ raises to t500. (The standard raise at the table - and the tournament - has been ~250). HJ has 1500 behind.
Folds to Hero in BB.
Hero has (44)
Hero shoves, for Vil's Tournament life.
Villain snap-calls with QJ

--

Here's my reasoning fo the shove.

I thought his bet to 5BB was a big mistake considering the fact that we were midway through the tournament, and most of the "non-serious" players had already left. It looked to me like a really weird blind steal with a subpremium but post-flop playable hand. Basically, I put him on two broadways or *maybe* a weak suited ace.

It didn't look to me like it was a low/medium pocket pair as I would have expected that to be a normal bet or limp for set-mining against a multiway pot, nor a high-pocket pair, which would *want* action at this stage in the tourney - the 5BB bet basically screamed: "I have a mediocre hand."

By shoving, I represent a very wide range, including a lot of Ax hands that dominate the vast majority of his range. I thought if I was right about his read, he would have to fold that mediocre hand and I'd scoop up the dead money - even if he called, I'm in a flip which, even if I lose, I still have 10BB left.

As it was - he did call with QJs... which seemed weird to me - because if the tables were reversed, I would have *absolutely* folded that to a shove for my tournament life. Best case (which it was), QJ is flipping for tournament life, and in the worst case, it's dominated by AQ/AJ, KQ/KJ, JJ+ and behind AK. Hero is *never* shoving with worse than QJ...

What are your thoughts?
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Old 03-19-2017, 01:27 PM   #2
onehandatatime
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

A couple of things

-you just moved the the table so we have no idea what villains range is here and have no tell on the sizing he makes with different ranges

-I think you levelled yourself into thinking that others are thinking on the same level as you are. Just because you wouldn't call with QJ there doesn't mean that villain wouldn't. This goes back to having reads on villain

-This should just be a call or fold in most cases. I'd opt just call and see a flop. Readless it's normally just a call
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Old 03-19-2017, 04:18 PM   #3
hitchens97
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

I think call is worst option. He's stuck 25% of his stack in.

Almost certainly you're folding flop OOP if you don't hit your 4.

Assuming you get this stack every time you hit the flop.

Your EV = .11*19BB - .89*4BB = Negative EV.

So that leaves fold or shove. Given no reads on villain, and that he's just raised a quarter of his stack, I assume he's calling with a lot of his range, and you're at best flipping.

I fold, and I don't feel too bad about it.

Also as to his action, yes it seems a marginal call at best, but not pants horrible; hate his initial raise to 5BB here, this is a raise to 2.5BB or less or an open shove. Also before berating him, don't assume you're not giving off a tell that you're not looking for a call.

Last edited by hitchens97; 03-19-2017 at 04:24 PM.
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Old 03-19-2017, 06:09 PM   #4
RiverDood
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97 View Post
I think call is worst option. He's stuck 25% of his stack in.

Almost certainly you're folding flop OOP if you don't hit your 4.

Assuming you get this stack every time you hit the flop.

Your EV = .11*19BB - .89*4BB = Negative EV.

So that leaves fold or shove. Given no reads on villain, and that he's just raised a quarter of his stack, I assume he's calling with a lot of his range, and you're at best flipping.

I fold, and I don't feel too bad about it.

Also as to his action, yes it seems a marginal call at best, but not pants horrible; hate his initial raise to 5BB here, this is a raise to 2.5BB or less or an open shove. Also before berating him, don't assume you're not giving off a tell that you're not looking for a call.
+1 all the way.
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Old 03-19-2017, 07:45 PM   #5
WorldResident
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

@hitchens97 @riverdood I agree with this as well.

But I want to add something similair to @onehandatatime. This 5x open indeed looks very fishy but as stated above you don't know anything about his range yet. I like to apply the following rule here: not guilty until proven otherwise. So that basically means that if you haven't seen him make a certain (similair) move yet you can't pinpoint him on something yet. You need to have seen his cards to have some kind of proof before you can justify getting tricky.
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Old 03-19-2017, 08:04 PM   #6
onehandatatime
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97 View Post
I think call is worst option. He's stuck 25% of his stack in
I missed that part, I thought both had 3500. Definitely a fold
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:45 AM   #7
nomalice
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

fold pre. u cant assume he would fold QJs bcs if he's thinking player in the first place he wouldnt open 5x ever with 20bb stack

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Old 03-22-2017, 12:33 PM   #8
scheier
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

About those live big opens (more than 4BB): I see different people make very different reads on those opens. Some people say "he opens 5BB, he must have a huge hand", others say "he opens 5BB, he has a weakish hand".
Just seems like random reads to me (usually based on how we would play it). Like someone said above, "not guilty unless proven otherwise".

About the preflop call by villain, well as the initial raise was so big, he is getting pretty good odds for a call and against a standard shoving range (not even including the 44 for example), I think we do have the odds, without taking icm into consideration (no indication about the bubble in the post). Yes it is terrible that villain put himself in this position, but he did, so let's just accept it :-p

So in the end, about hero's preflop options, here is what I would consider:
- A 5BB open is fishy, but different fish do it for different reasons and with different hands. So I wouldn't assume anything about villain's range.
- If we shove, villain is getting a great price. So although we still have some fold equity (and when villain folds, it's a huge free boost), it should be really small. We should expect a call most of the time.
- A call by hero is pretty bad because oop we are going to have a difficult time realizing our equity. And SPR is too shallow for setmining
- So unless I want to gamble a little in this specific spot, the reasonable play is to fold imo

Last edited by scheier; 03-22-2017 at 12:43 PM.
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Old 03-24-2017, 03:35 PM   #9
Mr.Slip
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Re: $AUD300 Tournament at Crown Casino, need a decision double-check.

Quote:
Originally Posted by onehandatatime View Post

-I think you levelled yourself into thinking that others are thinking on the same level as you are. Just because you wouldn't call with QJ there doesn't mean that villain wouldn't.
Exactly. one of the worse 'sins' at the poker table is ASSUMING other players are going to use the same logic/reads as you to feed their actions. If you are a winning player, that means you are giving the losing players too much credit. If you are a losing player (whether you want to admit it to yourself of not), this could be a big reason why.................
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