22 left in a 30k GTD online MTT....folds to us in SB. J7s w/16bb
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,083
BB is a competent reg with about a 40bb stack....last hand of the level, next hand we will be at 12.5bb. what is the best play here?
and how much does ICM start to factor into our decision considering theres only 22 left out of like 800 players.
Last edited by MerginHosOn24s; 08-14-2017 at 12:44 AM.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 5,077
icm shouldn't be coming into play so much at this point, if anything you should be trying to build a a good FT stack so you can play icm once you get there. These middle payjumps are not worth much and since you have already min cashed you have nothing to lose and everything to gain taking a small punt to get a stack for FT.
J7s is ahead of a random hand on stove (52/48) this would be a correct shove mathmatically and is unexploitable in the absence of any other mitigating factors so I think I would be shoving here
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,083
sure, i understand the direct math, fwiw I think shoving J7s there had an EV of +12k chips vs a normal calling range. we started the hand with 77k.
i'm just seeing if anyone is approaching these spots differently especially in bigger field tourneys when you are close to those big payouts at top. im not worried about ICM in the sense of moving up spot between 9-22, its more about how it feels a bit casual to not be factoring in the additional value our chips have at this stage...ie. if we still have a lot of FE, our stack vs average stack size, soft table.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 9,229
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 843
Depends a little on the bb and previous dynamics. is he going to ship over you really wide because you've been attacking his bb with opens? Has he seen you ship me 16 bbs from the sb before? Because if not then I'd assume as he likely would that you have the exact type of hand you do and will likely call off correctly.
There's no wrong answer if you don't fold, comeplete and bet, raise pre, or ship but it's going to depend on dynamics
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,083
thanks thats more the type of responses i was looking for.
at face value, its a standard preflop spot with a shortstack...but I'm starting to question if a lower variance approach to these spots is more optimal in the long run.
No doubt J7s beats a random hand and is a profitable shove.
BUT at some point in these big fields, the risk has to start outweighing the meager rewards. It's fairly hard to get that deep in a big tourney and theres got to be some additional value to our chips that we need to consider in these meh spots, right?
