Since I can't play while in the US, I've been reviewing a lot of my recent sessions and trying to find hands where I've made mistakes (there have been quite a few). I thought this was a pretty good one for discussion in that it's a somewhat common spot and I think the different lines are pretty close.
This seems like a great line to me up until the river. I think the river should be some frequency of b/c, some frequency of b/f, some of c/c and some of c/f where
b/f > b/c > c/c > c/f
Tough without info but I think I lean towards bet fold. Considering he didn't put more action in on the flop, and didn't raise the turn, I think it's a little less likely he has a pocket pair with no club, which is something he can turn into a bluff on the river. I know you can't discount them from his range all together cause he could definitely just call the flop planning on raising the turn with them, but then just go into call down mode after the club comes. I do think it makes those hands less likely tho, and they are also just a really small part of the range he is opening on the button. I also think he gives up at least some of the time with hands like Ax or Kx no club on the turn which is something else he could bluff raise with if he got to the river with it. I'm not in touch with just how light people are calling that turn in these games in those spots so I could be off base, I'm not sure. Had he opened from UTG then I think it's a much easier bet call since he will have like black tens or whatever way more often.
Last edited by Steve Giufre; 12-22-2011 at 02:55 AM.
assuming this is vs another highstakes reg my first thoughts are that c/c is best , with b/c not far behind
Clarkmeister doesn't always apply, but with this board I don't think we should ever check the river here. Our hand is too strong for b/f to be anywhere close to balanced, so without reads or general assumption (ie live nit), b/c is really the only option.
yea ok, i know what you are saying but i feel it is better to actually have a checking range on this river, and if we do then i think this hand should be in it
I actually think c/c looks better than betting. Given this board texture and that he is a highstakes reg, what hands is he getting to the river with that A) can call a bet and B) don't have a club?
Unless we're k/r this flop a LOT with air then most of his high card combos without clubs are folding. He's almost certainly putting in more action somewhere with 77+ even if it's red. We're literally targeting a hand like A3 here that is just calling down and that might even fold this river to a bet. On the plus side, he probably isn't raising the Jack of clubs or lighter so a lot of times we bet and he just calls a better hand.
I think he actually has a hand with a club here a LOT given that he just called the turn. Therefore i check and probably call because i has a flush and flushes are good. He bluffs with worse more often than he calls with worse, right?
I like c/c. Having trouble putting why into words. Just sorta feels like he doesn't have much on the turn and so it's hard for him to have something worse to call down with. I think if you bet you have to call cause it seems the best thing a bet may do is induce a bluffraise.
Clarkmeister doesn't always apply, but with this board I don't think we should ever check the river here. Our hand is too strong for b/f to be anywhere close to balanced, so without reads or general assumption (ie live nit), b/c is really the only option.
+1
A lot of reads would make my change my line , but here you havnet provided one.
On the flop I think your check raise polarized your range to 5 5+, AQ+. Except 8 8 quads.
Villain had a reason to stay with that board and that check raise on the flop. So where's his range - IMO - 5 5+, any flush draw, prob AQs+.
On the turn just a call. No raise.
On the river the check raise. Villain gets to river ahead all the way where he knows you will call. Without the club in your hand I would fold. My pref on river is check call.
My guess is villain shows down QQ for the full house.
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