Hi. I'm in from the Micros forum, am a regular 8/16 player (and used to be a regular 15/30 player when those games were around), and was a regular 1/2 and 2/4 player on Stars before Black Friday, so you definitely don't have to listen to my declamations about high limit poker.

But your mistake here is simple-- sample size.

You need AT LEAST 10,000 hands to determine an accurate winrate in limit hold 'em. More likely 20,000-30,000 hands. I had more than one 7,500 hand downswing online, and I was a 1BB/100 winner at 1/2.

28 hours, at 40 hands an hour (a generous rate which assumes fast dealers and players), is just over 1,000 hands. 21 hours is less than 1,000 hands. You are making conclusions about your winrates from statistically insignificant samples.

You need at least 250 hours, and more likely 500+ hours, to determine your live winrate. And you need a big enough bankroll that you can absorb an extended downswing.

I have played 40/80 at Commerce on occasion. I did not perceive the game to be that tough (I'd say it was about the same as a 1/2 game online). But I did not and do want to risk the bankroll to play that game as my main game. I'd want at least $15,000 in disposable money to take a run at it.

One thing that online poker does do is that it allows people to really confront the brutal realities of mathematics, including variance and bankroll management. You have a lot of hours to go, and make sure you have the roll to get there.

lol leveled

wow

You are making conclusions about his post from a statistically insignificant # of sentences.

Reverse those ups and downs and you're about in line with me.

Therefore both games are unbeatable. QED.

haha

+1

durrrr...

gold

Is this a level or did he just forget some extra zeros?

It's not a level, he didn't forget any extra zeros, and he doesn't listen to reason.

I live in the south bay area, san jose, sunnyvale, los altos area. Bay 101 offers 20-40, 40-80 around the clock, and 80-160 during the morning. Standard weekend game is better than say a Tuesday morning game..blah blah.
Garden City offers a REALLY good 15-30 game. I mean, 6 handed cap pre flop with random holdings.

Tracking the last 2 months (Dec 2011 and Jan 2012), I have played 231 hours at a win rate of $24.37 dollars an hour, primarily, on the 15-30 and some times 40-80, and rarely (twice) 80-160. I recently, stop poker to concentrate on my career, as I am a new attorney.

As a poker player, I'm pretty good, but have many holes in my game. Namely, I play drunk, tired, no bank roll management, and at times on tilt. And my technical skills could definitely improve. I've gone broke, but had numerous nights when I turn $100-300 into 5k+.

Sorry, if this sounds like a bio piece but I think this will help you understand the games in the bay area better. I think a lot of people on 2 plus 2 is as good or better than me.

The bay area offers GOOD limit game that could be beat (win rate 1bb/hour). There's definitely some good reg but they usually play 80-160 and have many holes in their game as well. I think only a hand full (about 4) of the regs goes on the internet and look at the forum like 2 plus 2.

I guess I could sum it up this way. During a conversation at a 15-30 game, I said, "it's easier to beat this game than it is a 3-6, 3-6 is impossible to beat." Only two other people understood.

Anyways g luck.

Good info. I am going to visit friends in San Jose in August and I plan on playing a lot, mostly 20/40 at Bay 101. Does Garden City have a 30/60?

2004

While in general the players in 20/40 and 40/80 games do have leaks related to poker theory and best practices (bluffing frequency, not fully understanding pot odds, etc.), the dirty little secret of live poker is that there are lots of people sitting at your tables who have a decent understanding of what they are supposed to do, but still lose.

Why? Because:

As well as one that you left out-- they are impatient and cannot make proper folds when they are card dead or are dealt a "good" hand that is crushed by an opponent's range.

Much of what goes on at a typical Commerce 40/80 table, for instance, especially when a big donator is not present, is that the regulars who are able to stay out of bad spots continually absorb money from the regulars who lack the necessary patience to.