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-0 Hold 'em : Borgata -0 Hold 'em : Borgata

03-01-2014 , 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leader
Internet guy opens 20% I'm sure (at least). We don't have almost 50% equity though if that's what you mean by even money.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: JS7D2C
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.76% 58.87% 2.89% { 33+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo }
BB 38.24% 35.35% 2.89% { AhTh }

However, we still do have enough equity to continue to the river and showdown selectively depending on what comes. For example, two cards from K/Q/9/8 that don't make us a str8 wouldn't be great, but like turn 8 then river 4 would give villain reason to believe that we are peeling semi-showdownable gs that might fold to a barrel.
I don't play this high but I would have guessed a tighter range for villain. And, initially I thought this might be a fold on the flop. However, after running some stoves with tighter ranges for villian, we still seem to have enough equity on the flop and enough turn cards can come that will let us realize our equity. Not to mention villain should be checking back the turn with some hands that we beat.

This looks like a call.
03-03-2014 , 03:37 PM
It's not a bad idea to have hands you can just xf on brick turns here.
03-04-2014 , 06:10 AM
3! Pf, then c/f flop. You missed! Don't chase!
03-05-2014 , 01:12 AM
i have a hard time thinking of a hand i would three bet pre out of position and then automatically check fold to that flop.
03-05-2014 , 02:32 PM
My thoughts exactly. That would be awful.
03-05-2014 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMightyDuck
I have A10 in BB. Villain is a former winning internet player and opens in the LJ (UTG in 6max). All fold, I call.

Flop is J72. I check, Villain bets.

I know this may seem like a pretty basic question, but do you think I should I continue on this flop? There is $360 on the pot preflop and he is betting $80 into that so my equity is $80/$520 or 15%. In order to continue on the turn I think I would need an Ace (which I probably can't check raise) or a 10. I know there may be arguments for continuing on an 8 or a 9 but I think this is fishy especially vs. an aggressive player who is likely to bet the turn as well with most Ace high hands in his range as well as most pocket pairs, 88+, no matter what the turn is, as well as pocket pairs 66 and under in many circumstances as well. Also, arguments can be made for continuing if the board pairs with another J, 7, or 2.

Overall, I think continuing in this spot can get you into a lot of trouble. Personally, my only reason for continuing would be to hit an Ace or a 10 and getting roughly only 6:1, I don't think it would be a good idea since there are probably 2-3 Aces and 3 Tens left in the deck. That is about 5.5/47 or 11% which is less than the 15% I originally thought I would need to continue.
*g*

GTO wise youve got a decent amount to fold before ATs is a consideration. If villain is cbetting balanced then ATs will be very close to a fold on the turn (facing another barrel). If villain 100% cbets flop we can widen that call down range and take ATs to the river. If he also auto fires many turns and the turn is a blank, pending the river card ATs could be a full call down.

Also, if you don't know how to play ATs in this fairly common situation then I don't know if you should be playing 80/160.
03-05-2014 , 09:33 PM
whether villian bets or not, is really unimportant. he is going to c/bet most times and those he doesnt will be free cards for both of you or him checking hoping to get bet at on 4th street.
03-06-2014 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
whether villian bets or not, is really unimportant. he is going to c/bet most times and those he doesnt will be free cards for both of you or him checking hoping to get bet at on 4th street.
On the flop, an outright bet doesn't matter. How often he cbets flop (and, to a lesser extent, turn) dictates if we should call down lighter than GTO or not. If he is cbetting in a balanced manner, then ATs is close to a turn fold (which a detailed analysis would reveal).
03-08-2014 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
i have a hard time thinking of a hand i would three bet pre out of position and then automatically check fold to that flop.
They don't call him ActionDonkey for nothing.
03-22-2014 , 08:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMightyDuck
I have A10 in BB. Villain is a former winning internet player and opens in the LJ (UTG in 6max). All fold, I call.

Flop is J72. I check, Villain bets.

I know this may seem like a pretty basic question, but do you think I should I continue on this flop? There is $360 on the pot preflop and he is betting $80 into that so my equity is $80/$520 or 15%. In order to continue on the turn I think I would need an Ace (which I probably can't check raise) or a 10. I know there may be arguments for continuing on an 8 or a 9 but I think this is fishy especially vs. an aggressive player who is likely to bet the turn as well with most Ace high hands in his range as well as most pocket pairs, 88+, no matter what the turn is, as well as pocket pairs 66 and under in many circumstances as well. Also, arguments can be made for continuing if the board pairs with another J, 7, or 2.

Overall, I think continuing in this spot can get you into a lot of trouble. Personally, my only reason for continuing would be to hit an Ace or a 10 and getting roughly only 6:1, I don't think it would be a good idea since there are probably 2-3 Aces and 3 Tens left in the deck. That is about 5.5/47 or 11% which is less than the 15% I originally thought I would need to continue.
Seems to me this dry flop misses a huge chunk of your range(and his). Villian is getting 4.5 on bluffs. If you fold AT and worse I'm guessing Villain can
bluff any two card profitably.
03-22-2014 , 03:47 PM
you vary how you play this hand against him. so one way i would play it sometimes. is i would checkraise him and bet out any turn seven or higher. that forces him to commit with many more of his hands and most times he wont.
03-24-2014 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
you vary how you play this hand against him. so one way i would play it sometimes. is i would checkraise him and bet out any turn seven or higher. that forces him to commit with many more of his hands and most times he wont.
That seems horrible...
03-26-2014 , 09:47 PM
Easy flop call imo. If villain is a winning online player as described I give him credit for having a fairly wide range and being able to barrel quite a large portion of that range. Need to see a turn at least. Reads are going to make turn/river easier.
03-28-2014 , 02:47 PM
C/C seems pretty standard on a dry board like this where it is unlikely to have hit Villains hand. You have a nice bluff catcher vs KQ, K10, etc.. If he is winning online player he should no better not to barrel on river with K high where in this type of game there is significant show down value with K high.
03-30-2014 , 07:09 PM
Call pre, c/c flop, a bunch of turns, and rivers. K is probably worst card for you.

      
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