Quote:
Originally Posted by DMightyDuck
I have A10 in BB. Villain is a former winning internet player and opens in the LJ (UTG in 6max). All fold, I call.
Flop is J72. I check, Villain bets.
I know this may seem like a pretty basic question, but do you think I should I continue on this flop? There is $360 on the pot preflop and he is betting $80 into that so my equity is $80/$520 or 15%. In order to continue on the turn I think I would need an Ace (which I probably can't check raise) or a 10. I know there may be arguments for continuing on an 8 or a 9 but I think this is fishy especially vs. an aggressive player who is likely to bet the turn as well with most Ace high hands in his range as well as most pocket pairs, 88+, no matter what the turn is, as well as pocket pairs 66 and under in many circumstances as well. Also, arguments can be made for continuing if the board pairs with another J, 7, or 2.
Overall, I think continuing in this spot can get you into a lot of trouble. Personally, my only reason for continuing would be to hit an Ace or a 10 and getting roughly only 6:1, I don't think it would be a good idea since there are probably 2-3 Aces and 3 Tens left in the deck. That is about 5.5/47 or 11% which is less than the 15% I originally thought I would need to continue.
*g*
GTO wise youve got a decent amount to fold before ATs is a consideration. If villain is cbetting balanced then ATs will be very close to a fold on the turn (facing another barrel). If villain 100% cbets flop we can widen that call down range and take ATs to the river. If he also auto fires many turns and the turn is a blank, pending the river card ATs could be a full call down.
Also, if you don't know how to play ATs in this fairly common situation then I don't know if you should be playing 80/160.