Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey
The more I play these things year after year the more I realize that the good LHE players have a huge edge early on but once you get to the money bubble and beyond the good tournament players do some stuff so much better than we do.
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In my experience, this is absolutely correct. Top-notch FLHE cash game players are accustomed to making thin value bets on the river - an important source of profit for any cash game player. But in the tournament context, those thin value bets make a lot more sense when you have 200 big blinds than they do when you have only 20 BB.
Trading off a positive EV for a reduction in variance is a big no-no in cash games. If you can't stand the variance of value betting slightly +EV situation in your FLHE cash game, then you would be better off moving down in stakes to find a game where you are comfortable betting thin value, rather than simply passing up +EV in favor of reduced variance. Right?
I think that FLHE tournament structure makes that less true - particularly when you are short stacked. If you have only 10 big blinds, then betting the river costs 20% of your stack - not a great idea when you are only slightly +EV. If you do bet there, you had better already be quite sure how you will respond to a raise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey
At the LHE shoot out final table t soprano quietly said to me that he thought Ian J playing AA UTG might have been a mistake or was at least "close" because of the pay out structure. I'm not sure he was right but us LHE cash players don't even THINK about stuff like that, and maybe if the structure was different or some chip counts were different it would be a no brainer.
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I tend to doubt that Soprano is right about that because AA has such a huge advantage even UTG at a full table. Of course I do not know the specifics of that situation. But I can think of circumstances where the stack sizes and payout structure could make Soprano correct (ie where it might be correct to fold UTG with AA).
However, I think folding AA UTG at a WSOP final table sounds ridiculous, particularly for a serious pro like Ian. I expect that the bracelet could well be more valuable than the $116,118 first prize in that event (because the added credibility that would come with it could help him make money away from the poker tables). In such a situation, it would certainly be a mistake to fold AA UTG because you are afraid of having them cracked and winding up in 9th place with only $9,225 (which is apparently what happened to Ian J?)
But, as you say, DeathDonkey, it is fascinating to learn that a knowledgable player could even
consider the possibility of folding AA preflop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey
In fact, this really poor player at that final table nursed a < 3 BB stack from 10th place to I think 5th partially because the other players (myself included I'm sure) might not have made tight enough ICM adjustments
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I find that highly credible. I suspect it happens all the time.