i think we are up on the day so we should close with the 215 2x. then that's it for this rail and 2012

Anything to report in the 215 2x?

Apologies this is extremely tldr

12/31 Plays: $2770

Note: These overlays are 100% accurate. I have backtested by multiplying Avg. used by Scope x Entrants to get the correct prize pools.

109R/40k #701010501 (so you can search on Sharkscope):

wrote down the lobby and there was an overlay of 6,790. The field was very soft. Scope shows 123 entrants at an average of $270 per.

Giving 6790/123 is $55 per person (this is in your favor since a lot of the weaker players didn't even make it to the add on).

So we will start at (309 +57) and mark it up by 1.15. This results in an effective MU of 1.35.

$309 x 1.35= $418

$215T/30k #664696056

139 entrants creating a prize pool of $27,800. Each entry was worth 30,000/139= 216 + 15 rake= $231 dollars. Mark it up by 1.08ish= $250.

$215 x 1.16= $250

$50R/25k #701010591

There was another big overlay for this tournament. It only had 98 runners (today's field shows 180) paying $153 per. That creates an overlay of 10,000/98= $102.

I finished 14th in this tournament to an absurd hand and was a chipleader for most of the tournament (1st was 6.8k, mincash was $600).

Considering 155 + 102 is already 1.658 markup, I don't feel comfortable adding more markup.

$155 x 1.658= $257

$215T/30k: Strangely enough, no overlay for the second 215 Turbo.

$215 x 1.14= $245

$216T/20k FTP: No overlay.
$216 x 1.13= $245

$216T/12.5k 6m FTP: 55 runners creates a negligible overlay.
$216 x 1.157= $250

$109 Stars 2R1A/12k: no overlay.
$409 x 1.22= $500

$55R Big Antes: no overlay.
$155 x 1.16= $180

$55C Turbo FTP: no overlay
$155 x 1.13= $175

$109R 6m/15k: no overlay
$209 x 1.19= $250

No 215 2x Turbo.


Cashes: $1617.62

$750 (9th 215 Turbo)
$405.62 (9th 55R Antes)
$462 (4th FTP Antes)

Losses for 12/31: $1617.62 - $2770= -$1152.38 ($-1152)

updating for Sunday's session now.

Sunday:-1155

$265 KO x 1.188= 315
$309 1R1A Turbo x 1.165= 360
$216 FTP Turbo x 1.13= 245
$205 55R Antes x 1.14= 235

Totals: 1155 + 1152= -$2307


20%= $461.40
10%= $230.70
5%= $115.35


hu4, you owe me $230.70 + 124.30= $355

Net: -$1644

Games Played (each + is a day): 60 games (give or take)
7 + 9 + 3 + 9 + 7 + 11 + 14

Deep Runs:
2nd $33R 6m
3rd $215T/65k
4th 55C Turbo FTP
9th $109R 6m
9th 55R Big Antes
9th 55R Big Antes
9th 215T
13th 55R Big Antes
15th $215T
47th $215 T/65k

Gruesome Stone Bubbles:

9th 109R (8 paid)
9th 33R 6m (8 paid)
9th $216 6m Turbo FTP (8 paid)
12th 109 2R1A (10 paid)
14th 55R (12 paid)
16th 55R Big Antes (15 paid)
74th $109 2R1A Turbo (72 paid)

Semi Bubbles:

5 short of money in 55R Big Antes turbo
6 short of money in 55C Turbo
9 short of money in FTP 216T
22nd 215 2x (18 paid min cash $700)
22nd 55R (18 paid)
92nd 109C Turbo (72 paid)
167 Sunday 500 (117 paid AA<KK for 60bb)

I think the fact I have so many gruesome and semi bubbles out of 60 games is absurd, but along with the 109 1R1A Turbo and 109 2R1A I shipped for 2+2 investors, it seems clear to me investors got a really good value out of this package and some of my MU's were a bit low.

pretty tired right now, but im not sure if this computes for me. If we investors are being charged for the overlay, then are we really seeing any benefit of the overlay? I tried to work it out in my head but somehow it seemed way to complex for me at the moment. maybe someone can chime in with their opinion or u could explain mathematically how this works.

theoretically investors are paying face value (or slightly less) for my action and I am benefiting by reducing variance.

face value would be overlay of entry x markup of player skill. What I do is either reduce the markup of player skill entirely or by half or more so that investors still profit from the overlay.

having said that, i have never seen how overlays work in terms of markup and am just winging it by using my brain in general. i'd be happy to engage in a discussion or even arbitrate/moderate with others.

like for example, if there was a field where I was sure I had a 30% ROI, I would charge 20% MU.

Let's say a 10k/$200 guaranteed with 50 runners.

So $200 x 1.2= $240


If that 10k only had 40 runners (same toughness of field), then my $200 is actually worth $250. But I still have a skill edge over the remaining players so my markup should theoretically hold.

But what I then do (to help investors profit) is either erase the markup entirely when the overlay makes it too absurd, or reduce it substantially.

So here $250/200 would be 25% markup, so I would probably multiply that by 1.10 or something.

I can also promise I'd much rather take 100% of the tournaments with overlay myself at those markups rather than complicate things and undersell my edge. The problem is you can never tell when there will be an overlay (esp for turbos) since you have to register from the start.

2013 package (this will last forever and be very similar to this one):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...-time-1283944/