It is not only value, but also protection. Like he is likely to check fold indeed, but those hands are folding later streets more likely anyways, so it is just giving him free equity. Only think checking is good if he is likely to check and bluff turns, which he isn't imo. He can call worse Tx, AK (have seen it), pairs below T. That said, you are talking about not being able to get 3 streets of value, but in that case I rather check behind river.
i think your leveling yourself to much, ye we prob only get to streets but why not bet flop/turn check bk river? or b/x/b? this way we take control of the pot and dont let ourselves get bluffed like we did.
the problem I have, is that poker video's teach us to get into people's heads. I try my best not to apply what I think to them but instead think through what they might be thinking.
When i do that, this is the result. I would love to know why i am leveling myself.
I think he's trying to say that villain basically is playing face up and in that case we should play straight forward ourselves and we will show immediate profit in this particular hand.
bet flop for value. bet turn for value. check behind river. we can assume guy cbets most of his top pairs/draws/air. this means we re left with air/underpairs, SDV hands, most of which you beat (barring....JJ?) so you bet to get value from his second pair type hands mainly. unless obv u have reads that the guy can get tricky but meh how often is that gonna happen. ost of the time he will fold which isnt bad rly cuz the hands he folds would usually only shovel money into the pot when they turn their sets. 99 might even call cuz lolzdonkamentz. when he calls you his range will be sth like Tx,(99),JJ AJ,AK and QQ havily weighted towards Tx. so u bet again. pretty small so that these hands call you again. imo we can safely fold to a turn checkraise here readless cuz then its gonna be one of the few monsters the guy can have. sure he can float you OOp to xr turns assuming u will start barreling at the smell of weakness but again lolz how often do we face such villains at these limits?. so now we got the value we could extract but gven that we cannot really assume villain will call all three streets with worse we check back river. seems like the most profitable line to take here. as played i think i call river cuz lolz might be an idiot and very well could be valuing worse but very well could have turned his set which amplifies my points
when he checks I put him on some thing like Q2s-Q9s/Q7o-Q9o/T2s-T9s/T7o-T9o and JJ
against that range we have 48% equity, most turns bring our equity down to ~35%, the only turns that give us good equity are the obv A/T turns and spade turns keep us at 49% equity, still not enough to value bet/risk a XR with outs to the nuts/SDV
Maybe my perception of ranges is just wrong?
can you give me some thought on what he calls flop with sromy? anything? I don't get this. He has a standardish cbet stat, typically 60%-70%, so what can conceivably be in his flop XC range?
Two Plus Two
Linear Mode
