Thanks - I quite enjoy you're thread as well! Nice to see someone crushing it so consistently. I'd say it generally takes me 20 - 30 minutes to write a post, depending on how involved it gets.

Plug That Up

I identified a new leak yesterday, which is that if I play the day after having a big win, I often lose. The reason is that when I had left the table less than 24 hours before, I had been running over and dominating it, and part of me wants to sit back down and be right be in the place. But you really have to start each session from scratch. You can't dominate a table that you just sat down at. More likely they'll just see you as an over aggressive monkey.

Anyway, I sat down in a 100 max game yesterday, and found myself stuck almost a buy-in for no good reason, a little unneccesary over-aggression that didn't pan out. So I sucked it up, screwed down and started playing good. Ended up coming out +99, which was fine since I only had a short time to play.

Here are the two hands that made the day (both against the same player).

The villain here is a your typical bad ABC player. Not a complete monkey, but stacks off way too easily, and will make bad "gambly" plays when stuck/tilty.

Hand 1
I'm in the bb with KQo. Villain is CO. He has about $100. I cover.

Three callers. SB checks. I check. I used to raise here, but I'v come to realize what's the point? Steal the $8 in blinds? Bloat the pot out of position? Give away the strength of my hand.

Flop Q 2 7 rainbow.

I check, checks to villain who makes it 15. I just call. If he has a queen, I'd like to give him the opportunity to value-own himself, since its unlikely he limped in late position with AQ.

Turn is a 5, which brings a flush draw

Villain bets 35, which leaves him a about 50 behind. Perfect. He doesn't have enogh left to fold a queen. I shove. He calls. Would I have gotten all his chips if I'd raised pf? Hard to say without seeing his hand, but it seems less likely.

I don't remember the river, but he mucks when I table my hand.

Hand 2.

I'm UTG + 2 with AQ

I raise to 12 get two callers, including villain from previous hand.

Flop is QJ5 Bingo!

How much to bet here? I hit this flop so hard that I don't want to scare people off. I bet $20 into $35, which I hope looks on the weaker side.

First player quickly smooth calls. Villain makes it $75. With about $80 behind.

Really? Set of fives? QJ? More likely a draw, since it's such a huge raise it screams please fold. Sorry, no can do. Oh well, best get all the money in now, if you are on a draw (if its a flush draw you're drawing very near dead).

I make it $175. First players spends a strangely long time hemming and hawing. Which I don't understand. A set or top two is an instacall, anything else is an instamuck. Right? Anyway, he mucks, and later says he had an open-ended straight draw.

Second villain calls off the rest of his $80.

Turn is a 7 River is an 8

Villain flips up his 104 as he leaves the table.

File this one back under "Lessons I'm slow to learn" Big overbets/raises on the flop are almost always draws. A true big hand wants to get value. The big overbet wants you to fold.

2012 Stats:
Sessions: 20
Total Won: $1,109
Hours: 66
Avg P/h $16.75

Knowing When To Walk Away

Ok, so I'm going to strive for the month of February to actually post following each session, which I once again have failed to do for a while.

January ended weakly for me, I think I ended up only plus about $800 for the month in 60 hours, pretty pathetic. I started the month with some honest to goodness run bad, lots of sets flopped against my overpair, running qq into kk, kk into aa etc. But then I followed this up with a fair bit of play bad, and seemed to be unable to put more than two winnin sessions together in a row.

I'd do feel like I plugged some leaks by the end of the month, and would like to think I'm turning over a new lead in February. Here's the two things I'm working on for the month:

1) Allow my playing style to be absolutely adjusted to the table. I feel I am now capable of playing a very LAG-y style, but found that I got myself into lots of trouble when I started telling myself "I'm a LAG, so I need to be raising more/playing more hands etc" or "I'm on the button so the right thing to do is raise my 97 suited after three callers, b/c I'm an agressive player". Sometimes these are the right things to do, but I've come to accept that its all totally dependant on table dynamics and the table's perception of you.

The truth is, often the way to make the most money in a game, is to do a lot of limping with speculative hands and get paid off big when you hit by the players who can't lay down a hand. This is much more profitable than raising and c-betting constantly against these same players, since in that case you're either only going to win a small pot on the flop when they miss or lose a bigger one when they don't and you do, since you're never getting them off the hand. It seems a super agressive style is most profitable 1) when you have a winning image at a table and everyone assumes you always have the hand 2) when the table is reasonably aggressive and there are people who are likely to make big bluffs against you/get frustrated with you're raising b/c they see you're playing a lot of hands.

The main adjustment here is that I now begin each session playing super-tight and allow my level of agressiveness and loosness to be determined by the way the table is playing and its perception of me. For anyone who's spent any time studying acting, you know that the basic principle of modern american acting is to have your action be rooted in what you are trying to get someone else to do. I.e., take your attention off yourself and focus it on the other person in the scene, so that you can allow yourself to react spontaneously and naturally. Simliarly, I think I erred in my playing most when I was focused on my own play, and how I was "supposed" to be playing, rather than focuses on my opponents and how best to take all their chips, and then allowing my playing style to form that.

Anyway here's a hand I played yesterday, that possibly shows this. 2/4 blinds. 200 max

I've got about $500 and am UTG with AKo. I limp, Bad But Not Clueless reg to my left limps, guy who's been running over the table makes it $16. He's got about $1500 in front of him and has been playing super-loose/aggressive and is a little drunk. Two more callers and back to me. This is a great spot to check-raise, but I don't see the original raiser ever laying down to my raise here, give his perception of me. And then if I miss the flop, I'm kind of screwed. Similarly, I think if he's raising with a weaker Ace and an Ace flops, I think I stand a good chance of doubling through him.

Flop A 6 2r. I check, and sadly it checks around.

Turn is a 6 bringing a diamond draw.

I bet $55 in about $80. Bad But Not Clueless guy shoves for $150. Folds back to my instacall, while asking him if he's got a six. "No" he says "but I've got an Ace".

River pairs the dueces. I scoop the pot.

Final thought: I also found quite a few situations in January, where I'd sit down and be up $400 or $500 in the first 30 minutes and then slowly give it back over the next few hours. Until I get my br back to a place where I'm feeling really healthy about it (it's back down around 4K right now), I'm giving myself permission to hit and run a bit more, if I'm up a lot early in the session, and start to feel myself losing momentum.

I've done this with my first two February sessions. And feel fine about it.

February Results:
Total Sessions: 2
Total Hours: 4.5
Total Won: $604
Avg p/h: $140

2012 Results:
Total Sessions: 24
Total Hours: 77.5
Total Won: $1,294
Avg p/h $16.63

i really enjoy this i am wanting to play part time also, will be following you on your journey...

How Many Sets of Queens Does It Take to Screw in A Lightbulb

Now that the semester has started back up again, I'm sticking to a very regular playing schedule, Tuesday at Lucky Chances since I'm already down there, Thursday and Friday at the Oaks. Yesterday was Tuesday, so I was back at LC, playing in a game that once intimidated me, but I'm increasingly comfortable in.

Waiting for a seat in 3-5, I played some 1-1-2 and donked off about $100 by trying to steal the blinds, and then getting raised all-in by a stack that was short enough that I felt compelled to call. (it's 1-1-2 with 4 to open, so lots of limpers makes a pot worth stealing). Why was I trying to steal with 10-6o? Good question.

Anyhoo, got called for the 3-5 and played basically very solid, patient poker. After about an hour, I picked up qq in UTG + 1. I've got about $400 in front of me. I raise to 20, get called by a weak tight young woman in the CO and a super loose aggressive player on the button, who's got about a $330 stack.

Flop comes 8Q8. Bingo.

Hmm, ok. In the past I often would have checked a flop like this, but I've started to feel like there's more potential in getting some kind of action going, particularly with a very aggro player behind. This is totally the kind of flop and aggro player would try to push off a c-better with. He sees me as very tight, so let's see if I can go with that.

I make it 15, into 60, hoping that would read as weak. Woman calls. Aggro player makes it $100. I love this game. I give it my best hollywood, and eventually make the reluctant call. Woman mucks.

Turn is whatever. I check. Aggro player shoves. I call.

River is whatever.

He looks like he know he's beat when I call, so even though he later said he had an 8, I'm not sure if I believe him.

Less than 2 orbits later, I pick up KK UTG. I have about $750, Villain in this hand has $300. I cover. There's been a bunch of pf raising from the guys to my right, so I limp. Two more limpers and Villain, who just sat down at the table but from his affect I'm assuming has a clue, makes it $35. BB, who has me covered calls.

Ok, how much to raise. Villain's got less than $300 in front of him, and I want to raise enough to bump out the guy in the middle. Also, since I'm out position, I don't want to raise so little that I'm going to put myself in a weird spot where I might have to fold to a bad flop. Also also, if Villain does in fact have a big hand, perhaps I can look like a resteal and get it all in.

I make it $235. Villain can't call this without going all in. In retrospect, $200 or even $175 may have accomplished the same goal. Anyway. He hems and haws, and asks why I raised so much. I don't respond. I never respond to questioning, not trusting myself not to give it away. Eventually he shoves. Middle player folds. I call of course.

"I have a big pair" he says?

"Aces?" I say

"No" he says "I guess you're ahead". As he says the word, we see the queen in the window. "uh, not anymore" he says"

Flop Q A 4 all diamonds. My kings are black.

Turn Q

River 6

Yuck.

So after 4 hours of play, we end up +$41, but I was tired and called it a day.

2012 Stats
Total Sessions: 26
Total Won: $1,386
Avg p/h $16.64

February Stats
Sessions: 4
Total Won: $696
Avg/ p/h $71

when the aggro player shoved allin why did you reveal your cards first after the river? or did he instantly muck after river? (just wondering why you didn't want to see if his hand?)

I made a mistake there. I'm used to playing at the Oaks, which has a bad rule that if there's no action on the river, even if its because of an all-in, you have to turn up your hands in order. So, you often have a situation where the person who shoves was in position, but doesn't have to show first. As I said, it's a bad rule, but I've gotten used to it...

Good luck man, keep it up, is a nice job.

Yuck. Best table of 2/4 I've seen in months and totally card dead for four hours. -275. Mostly from being blinded of (we had a mandatory straddle for 2hrs) and one hand where I raised with ak suited got retained by an utg limper, called and mucked on the turn after check check on the flop. A short stack was allin and so the villain showed down his aa.

At least I had a chance to practice my patience. I believe I folded 40 hands in a row. Nothing even as good as 97 off...

Oh well, could been worse. But man, the game was awesome.

Quick Fix

Leaving town for the weekend with my wife, so I only had time for a short session this afternoon, luckily it was enough to come out +375 and make up for yesterday's bleed.

Here's the relevant hands (2/4 200 max):

I'm in the CO with KQo two limpers and I make it 16 to go.

BB calls, limpers call. I'm on about $450, relevant villain in this hand has about $400.

Flop K74

BB checks, first limper, checks, second limper bets $35 into about $60. Even a few months ago, I may have just called in this spot, because its weird and a little scary, but now I now better. Villain here is over aggressive young african american guy. Can be scary when running hot,as he has been lately, but he's still a fish at hear.

Ok, so back to the hand. He can't have AK in this spot, and why bet out if he flopped a set. Sets don't want to push anyone out. Looks like a flush draw. And what do we do with flush draws? We make them pay.

I make it $100. He calls.

Turn is a 7

Well that can't have changed anything. He wasn't donk/calling with just middle pair on the flop. He checks I bet $200 (max bet). He calls. I pray for no heart. River is a blank. He checks and has about $75 behind.

Its hard to see what I get value from on the river, KJ? But with only $75 behind and $600 pot its hard to see him folding almost anything. So I put him all-in, he mucks A6 face up.

Hand #2
I'm in the BB with 102

four limpers. SB folds. No raises. Flop comes J92

Checks around.

Turn Q, A very pretty card for my hand. There's about $16 dollars in the pot. I'm not sure if check calling here is such a great line. How do I get value from anything on the river? So I bet $12, and get four callers. Weird.

River is a 3

Hmmm. Once again, I bet the turn when the flush draw came, and I'm first to act, so how do I get called by worse if I bet out? Not sure. And with three people behind I check, hoping someone wants to try to pick it up.

Checks to the button, and old man who likes to bluff the river. He bets $75. His hand is pretty polarized here, I think so I'm not sure there's any benefit to a raise. I call.

He says "nice call", and is disgusted when I turn up my flush. Walked right into that one, huh?

Hand #3
I'm getting ready to go. It's always when you're getting ready to go right?

UTG+ I pick up two black Queens. UTG limps, I make it $20 two callers, plus UTG calls.

Flop 842

Pretty good for me. I bet $50. UTG shoves for $71.

Turns up A9

Oh well, at least he was short stacked.

2012 Stats:
Sessions: 28
Total Won: $1485
Total Hours: 88
Avg p/h $16.75

This Month:
Sessions: 6
Total Won: $795
Total Hours: 15
Avg p/h $52.59

Buckminster,

Where are you? We miss you!! Hope all is well.

I'm Still Here

Sitremba! I didn't know you were reading. Thanks for the nudge - I've been thinking for a while it was time I posted.

The truth is (you'll be shocked) I was losing and was feeling just generally crappy about my game and as a result didn't feel much like posting. I seemed to follow up every winning session with a losing one, and after two weeks of treading water, I went on about a $1400 downswing. So I took a couple days off, reading some Tommy Angelo and started thinking about trying to lop off my "c" game. Then a few days after that I had a great 4 hour slightly drunken post-game analysis with one of the other regulars in my game - one of the few who's game I respect. It was the first time I've done this and it was really to talk with him about what I was seeing about the leaks in both our games and hear his thoughts on it.

The conclusion I came to, which I'd been struggling with for a while, was that after some genuine run-bad at the beginning of the year, my game started to slip slowly into being weaker and more passive. I was raising less pre-flop, c-betting less often when I did, and c-betting for smaller amounts when I cbet. All this unsurprinsingly led to less success and to creating an image of nearly pureaggression's level of tightness, which in turn meant getting no action when I did have a hand.

Finally I realized I was too often just not thinking through hands clearly, putting people on specific ranges at each part of the hand and acting accordingly.

So I went home, slept off what was a surprising degree of drunkeness (it was one of those great long conversations where you're both so enthusiastic you don't realize how late it is or how much your drinking), and got back on the horse. Played more aggressive thoughtful poker and booked a +850 win for the next session, my best of 2012. Then the session after that booked a quick +400 before getting a "come home" call from the wife. So after the dreck that was most of February, I managed to end the month +500. Not the best use of my 46 hours of play, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.

So after all that, I'm feeling really great about my game again, and ready to take March by storm.

Here's one hand from when i was completely off my game and two recent hands that remind me why I'm back on it:

Hand 1)
Villain in this hand is an older Asian woman with a ton of chips ($2000+). Old asian woman makes me think she plays abc passive, but the ton of chips tells me she must be more active than that.

I have AJos

One limper to me and I make it $16 in the HJ. Button calls. Limper calls.

Flop is Q84

Limper checks, I bet $30 into $45, Lady calls limper folds.

Turn A Nice.

Ok, now what to do? Likely I take the pot down with a bet here, but that's fine, since I don't think she calls with just a Q if I fire a second bullte, but I don't want to get too fancy with myself, so i go ahead and bet $45 into $105. Mistake #1 - betting to small.

River Q Hmm. Bad news. I consider firing a blocker bet, but end up just checking. Don't think it though so don't have a good reason why. Mistake #2

She insta bets $200. I insta muck. Don't think it through at all. Don't ask why so much, don't put her on a hand, don't do anything. Really should just turn in my poker license. She flashes 107 for the busted club draw any idiot should be able to see. But really I'm to blame, since had I taken a moment to really put her on a hand at any point, it would have been perfectly obvious. I consider this hand my low point of the month

Next hand, two days later:
I'm on the button with 86, 2/4 blinds I've got about $400. Villain in this hand is an old man who has literally just sat down at the table. He's posting in the BB. Four limpers to me, and I could raise it here, but I've been raising a really high percentage of my buttons and think there's plenty of value in just calling.

SB calls, BB makes it 15. A terrible raise, which is pushing no one out. But he's an old man, and just sat down. We all call, so its seven to the flop with $100 in the already.

Flop comes 846

Lovely. SB checks. Old man bets out $50. Double lovely. Old man in this spot has an overpair 99% of the time. And is never laying it down. It's possible that flop hit someone else big too, but we'll deal with that when we have to.

Folds to me and I make it $150. Old man calls.

SB thinks, hesitates, says he respects my games too much, and mucks.

Turn is a 7 Just about the worst card in the world if I was in this hand with anybody who wasn't already playing their hand faceup.

He checks, I make it $200, which is pretty much all-in for him.

He calls. River 2

He tables 1010

Nice.

3rd hand - different day

The game is playing pretty loose pf, $25 and $30 pf raises are getting 5 - 6 callers. This time I'm with one with the two red 10s in the HJ. Four limpers to me, and I make it $45 - a crazy large amount, but given the mood of the table I think I'm getting called by worse hands a lot.

Two callers. I don't know the villains in this hand very well, but don't mark either as strong players.

Flop comes J 45 .

I have the 10 of hearts. Checks to me and I bet $70 into about $135. First play folds, second player shoves for an additional $105 on top. So it's $105 to me with $275 in the pot - better than 2.5 to 1. If he's on a flush draw I'm a big favorite, particularly with my heart blocker, and the tremendous pot odds. Even if he's on a straight draw/flush draw or a straight/flush draw, it's an auto call. If he has a J or a set I'm nearly dead. The timing had me leaning towards a draw - he didn't seem to take any time to ponder whether my hand was stronger than his, which makes me feel a hand like KJ or QJ is unlikely.

The math I couldn't do quickly enough in my head is to figure out what percentage of the time he needs to have the flush draw for me to profitably call here. In the end I call. He had 34 of hearts (pair and flush draw), and makes his flush on the river. Happy I made the right call, after doing some more math on the hand, I realize that even if he has the draw as little as 40% of the time, its still a profitable play with those pot odds.

Interesting to think that these two hands are very similar, but I feel I played both right and my opponents played both wrong (you could argue his flop shove isn't wrong I guess, once you get over the mistake of calling 10 bb pf with 34ss out of a 60 bb stack). And that's why I should be beating this game.

Which leads me to another thing I've been pondering. It seems like the the biggest leaks in live NL, at least at the stakes I play are

1) people shoving with draws on the flop when you have almost no fold equity

2) people stacking off with over pairs against sets/two pairs

3) people bluff shoving the river when they miss a draw

4) calling too many raises pf, and then playing fit or fold on the flop

Which means a huge slice of the money comes down to being able to differentiate between situation #1 and #2 when you're the one with the overpair, never doing #3, and very rarely doing #4.

Ok - back to the grind tomorrow

Yup

Another nice solid session - +300 in the 100 max and then + 215 in the 200 max in 4 hrs.

Felt good about my game - fired a second bullet when I needed a couple of times on the turn and raised with a very wide range in late, mostly to success.

Made one pretty questionable call. There's four limpers in the 2/4 and I make it $30 to go on the button SB calls, UTG folds, UTG +1 calls, UTG +2 shoves for $194 total. So its $164 to me with $280 in the pot. Not quite 2 to 1 but close. I have KQ Suited. UTG +2 is pretty tight, and I just don't see him over-limping two people with AA or KK. He's also savvy enough to know I could well be raising light. I call. He's got AK, and I lose. I'm 30% to win the hand, so I don't quite have the equity I need to call, but I think he's got 77 - 1010 a lot of the time there, in which case the 1.75 to 1 pot odds totally neccessitates a call. Maybe I'm wrong and he has AK in that spot a lot more than he ever has 88. But he has to have it a hell of a lot more for it to be a bad call.

Am I way off base? Anyhoo, after my crappy February, I'm now in the midst of a + $1500 upswing, which is pretty nice...

Hi Buck,

Sorry I am late to the party. I am surprised no one responded to your lines here.

Of the 4 scenarios you mentioned above, think #4 is easily the biggest leak among SSNL grinders. Most everyone and their grandmas love to see the flop in SSNL, and then proceed to fold once they hit nothing on the flop. Which is why it is so so important to not call a raise pre-flop unless you have a solid hand. What constitutes a solid hand is up for discussion of course. lol One man's treasure is another man's trash. It's usually better to take the lead and 3-bet if you have a speculative hand, instead of calling.

The other 3 you mentioned are actually fine, not necessarily leaks, bc in this business aggression wins. Regarding #1, I often shove with a massive drawing hand on the flop and are at peace if my opponent calls or folds.

Regarding #2, sets are rare, to be hit only about 12% of the flop so that if I have a over-pair and it's heads up, I rarely ever fold. In the rare event that you do crack my over-pair heads-up, Merry Christmas to you. If it's a pot with multi-people, then I am a little more careful. So when you shove with over-pair, it's actually not a bad play. Again, aggression wins in this business.

As for #3, that's actually a great play in poker. Remember, the whole purpose of poker is to bet and get your opponent to call with a lesser hand and to bet and get your opponent to fold with a better hand. Poker is not about calling. It is about betting and raising up the roof bc at the end of the day, aggression wins.

Hey Quiet Assassin,

I appreciate your thoughts - and can only aspire to your results.

I guess I feel with #3, people so often make a bet sizing mistake that turns it into a huge leak. At least in the 2/4 and 3/5 games I play in, I almost never see people massively overbet the river to represent a missed draw when in fact they have the hand. When people overbet the pot on the river where a draw didn't come in, its a bluff at least 80% of the time in my game. Maybe most of the players in my game aren't good enough to recognize it as such, and so its still profitable to do, but I feel like a decent percentage of my profit of the past few months has come from me picking off those bluffs.

In terms of #2, I guess this is just player and read dependant. For sure, heads up I'm basically never laying down an overpair. But in a 3 or 4 way pot, there are plenty of nitty players in my game who are only raise shoving the flop on a dry-ish board with two-pair plus. On the other hand, I know there are over-aggressive players who are always shoving their draws, and I'm always calling. In those cases if they flopped a set, so be it. But there's such a huge swing of money in differentiating between the two types.