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| Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. |
07-17-2012, 12:18 PM
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#1
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 64
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The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Well I think it's time for me to work on a challenge. I am an independent contractor and I will have at least a month and a half off. So my intention is to see if I can play profitably over a high volume from now to September, and potentially beyond.
I'm going to play live 1/3 NLHE at my local casino(s). I'm going to keep my location private because I don't want to risk anybody I play with reading this thread and knowing that I'm playing for income.
My bankroll is about $3,000. So far this year, playing 1/3 very recreationally and sparingly, I am +$1,896 over 125 H 25 M for a $15.12 hourly.
My short term goals:
1) Play 160 hours in August. For rest of July, shoot for 40 hours/week.
2) Focus harder on more disciplined play especially in regards to position.
3) Focus extra hard on observing hands I am not in.
4) Prepare my game to try to satellite into Main Event of a poker tour that is coming through my hometown soon.
Long term goal:
1) Achieve and maintain $20+/hour
2) Build bankroll for poker trip to WSOP next summer
That's all how it would play out for me ideally. These next couple months are greatly experimental to see if I can do well enough with higher volume to pay bills, increase bankroll, and potentially have the freedom to not have to do a real job.
Wish me luck guys! I start today!
(Bankroll updates and notable hands to follow.)
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07-17-2012, 12:35 PM
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#2
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journeyman
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 359
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
best of luck m8, but i assure you, sitting in stagnant poker rooms day after day with smelly degen losers having the same conversations will make you yearn for a "real job" in no time at all.
That said, your plan sounds perfect as something to do during your off-season at contracting.
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07-17-2012, 01:35 PM
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#3
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 972
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Subscribed, gl man. J
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07-17-2012, 03:46 PM
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#4
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old hand
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,363
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
GL/subscribed
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07-17-2012, 10:10 PM
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#5
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 64
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Today was about as horrible a start to a challenge I could imagine. I did stick to my in-game goals listed above. But every big hand I flopped, I got paid nothing at all. Every c-bet I made which was a bluff did not work. I failed to pick of a big bluff. And I stacked off in a big pot.
A couple hands.
Not long before this hand, the guy to my left was heads up w/ me on the river on a Q8QQ8 board. He gave a live tell that he had nothing. I bet w/ AK to try to take the whole pot rather than chop. He called, we chopped. He is the villain in this next hand.
Hero (CO)
Villain (BTN)
Button straddle for $6, 2 limpers, I raise to $25 w/ 99. BTN and SB call.
Flop ($78): J72 rainbow
SB checks, I bet $40, BTN calls, SB folds.
Turn ($158): 7x
Check, Check
River ($158): 3x
I Check, BTN bets $80, I fold.
Later on, against an Asian guy I had watched run three streets of bluff unsuccessfully in two different hands, I get tied up in a big pot. Personally against him I had gone heads up twice after raising PF. Both times, I whiffed flop, C-bet, he min raised and I folded. He seemed disappointed both times. Then this...
Villain (UTG+1)
Hero (BTN)
UTG limps $3, UTG+1 limps $3, folds around, I raise to $15 w/ A  A  , blinds fold, both limpers call.
Flop ($49): 636 rainbow
UTG check, UTG+1 check, I bet $25, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.
Turn ($99): 7x
UTG+1 checks. Dealer mistakenly announces check for me, I quickly respond "No!" Then I bet $60. UTG+1 Hollywoods, agonizes, calls. I am very suspicious.
River ($219): 6x
UTG+1 quick check, I bet $125. He insta shoves another $120 roughly. I crying call.
Villain: 86o
YTD Winnings: +$1396
YTD Hours: 128 H 48 M
YTD Hourly: $10.84/H
Challenge Winnings: (-$500)
Challenge Hours: 3 H 23 M
Challenge Hourly: (-$147.78/H)
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07-17-2012, 10:17 PM
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#6
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 64
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
So that was a horrible start. I'm gonna shake that off, say "**** that," and get back at it tomorrow.
I do have a stop loss of $500. I don't want to give myself any chance of tilting off money trying to get even for a session. So anytime I lose what I bring, that's it.
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07-18-2012, 10:53 AM
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#7
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 972
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Not sure what other people think but I think an argument can be made for calling that river bet in Hand #1. His range is pretty wide when he calls OTF, esp. if you have a high cbet percentage. Check/check on turn then his bet on river seems to me like he is just trying to steal the pot (again, esp. if you are known to cbet then give up if you miss). I think 99 is ahead of most of his range here. We have to call $80 to win $260 so we're getting like 3.3 to 1
Hand #2 if you're suspicious after the turn why don't you check behind river? Although I think me thinking this is influenced by seeing the results. At least now you know this guy is a trappy player.
And last but not least, if you don't mind sharing, what is the live tell you had on the guy in the AK hand? Just out of curiosity...
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07-18-2012, 11:25 AM
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#8
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 972
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Actually the more I think about it I'm pretty sure Hand #1 is a definite call...unless we have some serious read on villain. I don't think he is checking the turn with any kind of TPTK/TPGK. We check to him twice, showing weakness, no cards came that are likely to improve his flop range. Yeah, sometimes hill flip over JT, but I think majority of the time we are up against hands like 88, 55-66, and maybe missed straights like 9T. Someone please correct me if I am wrong
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07-18-2012, 12:40 PM
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#9
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newbie
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Lexington, SC
Posts: 42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by derada4
Actually the more I think about it I'm pretty sure Hand #1 is a definite call...unless we have some serious read on villain. I don't think he is checking the turn with any kind of TPTK/TPGK. We check to him twice, showing weakness, no cards came that are likely to improve his flop range. Yeah, sometimes hill flip over JT, but I think majority of the time we are up against hands like 88, 55-66, and maybe missed straights like 9T. Someone please correct me if I am wrong
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+1^
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07-18-2012, 04:21 PM
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#10
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 64
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Quote:
Originally Posted by derada4
Not sure what other people think but I think an argument can be made for calling that river bet in Hand #1. His range is pretty wide when he calls OTF, esp. if you have a high cbet percentage. Check/check on turn then his bet on river seems to me like he is just trying to steal the pot (again, esp. if you are known to cbet then give up if you miss). I think 99 is ahead of most of his range here. We have to call $80 to win $260 so we're getting like 3.3 to 1
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As I thought about it more, I hated that I folded. I had no history to go on at the time, it was early in the session. It's generally hard to imagine getting floated in most 1/3 games. The guy was a recreational, young black guy with shades. In retrospect, after playing with him more, I know he would have called flop w/ 55, 66, 88 and checked them through on turn and river. Also, he may have called a river bet with such hands, in retrospect. I just should have known he can't have a Jx hand because he probably would have bet the turn for value.
He ended up showing KQo, total air.
The live tell on the Q8QQ8 board was just holding his cards above the felt and doing the frustrated hands, along with showing the hand to his friend.
Quote:
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Hand #2 if you're suspicious after the turn why don't you check behind river? Although I think me thinking this is influenced by seeing the results. At least now you know this guy is a trappy player.
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Part stubbornness, which isn't a good excuse. Also, he just acted outrageously weak throughout the hand like he had 88 or 99. But he had been so aggressive, he definitely wouldn't have limped those PF, even UTG. But I should have also realized that in our previous hands, every time I c-bet and he raised, I folded. Now all of a sudden, he's just calling and not chasing me out. It should have set loud, loud, LOUD alarms.
I just tried to convince myself he had slowplayed 33 or 54 or that he simply had 88-99.
And then there's also the simple theory of it being hard for him to have the 6 when there are three on the board already.
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07-18-2012, 04:27 PM
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#11
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 972
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDD
And then there's also the simple theory of it being hard for him to have the 6 when there are three on the board already.
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This. I wouldn't beat myself up over it. Variance.
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07-19-2012, 02:24 AM
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#12
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 64
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Another tough $500 loss.
Again, I feel I played the game I wanted to. Selected a soft, passive table. Focused well on playing hands in position. It turned out to be one of the trappiest tables I have ever experienced. I saw at least three different players play AA in a slowplay manner. One was a MP limp/reraise PF. Another was a MP smooth call of a EP raise (3-way flop, dry J-high board, PFR checks, AA in MP bets $4, I raise to $25 w/ KJ, PFR reraises to appr. $60, AA in MP goes all in for $200+). Another was the SB cold calling a raise from UTG+2 w/ BB and 2 limpers still behind him.
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Funny hand...
Hero (UTG)
Villain (BB)
Villain is 70-year-old man who is playing poker in a casino for first time. We've been babysitting him on procedures and acting in turn and whatnot. Nice guy, looser than the typical old-guy-nit.
Hero raises to $12 w/ 7  7  , BTN calls, MP calls, Villain calls in BB.
Flop ($49): J  9  2 
Checks all around
Turn ($49): 7 
Villain bets $15, Hero raise to $40, fold, fold, Villain mistake reraises by throwing out 2 green chips on top of his 3 red with no verbal (a legal min-reraise) then claims he intended to call (no angle, honest guy), Hero?
Hero has $400+ behind
Villain has $250-$300 behind
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The rest of the story just involved running AK into the top 3 hands PF a few times for substantial losses.
Later, UTG raises to $6, MP calls, I raise to $25 from BTN w/ 9  7  , BB raises to $63, UTG fold, MP calls, I call getting over 4:1 and both stacks covering me.
Flop T 7 7
BB bet $97, fold, I'm all in $230, he calls.
Turn 2
River K
He shows KK. Night over.
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YTD Winnings: $896
YTD Hours: 135 H 13 M
YTD Winrate: $6.67/H
Challenge Winnings: (-$1,000)
Challenge Hours: 9 H 48 M
Challenge Winrate: -$102.40/H
Last edited by NDD; 07-19-2012 at 02:35 AM.
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07-19-2012, 03:14 AM
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#13
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centurion
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 191
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
First hand, raise to $130 and call or shove river.
Second hand. Stack sizes? Fold pre usually.
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07-19-2012, 03:42 PM
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#14
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 64
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Not playing today. Going to just take care of chores here at home and get back at it tomorrow night for the weekend action.
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07-19-2012, 04:17 PM
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#15
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,527
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Re: The Live Grind Experiment: Assessing My Pro Potential
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDD
Another tough $500 loss.
Villain is 70-year-old man who is playing poker in a casino for first time.
Hero raises to $12 w/ 7  7  , BTN calls, MP calls, Villain calls in BB.
Flop ($49): J  9  2 
Checks all around
Turn ($49): 7 
Villain mistake reraises by throwing out 2 green chips on top of his 3 red with no verbal (a legal min-reraise) then claims he intended to call (no angle, honest guy), Hero?
Hero has $400+ behind
Villain has $250-$300 behind
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You don't say what the ruling at the table was. I'll assume the floor forced the guy to raise. Two things:
1) I don't show much mercy at the table, but I'd make an exception in this case. The WORST thing that can happen to a new player to for him/her to perceive that they were cheated or for them to feel like the game has too many landmines that cost them money. If allowed to give input, I would give them my (your) honest opinion that the player is brand new and didn't know any better and that you believe he meant to call. Shear the sheep, don't slaughter it.
2) Assuming that the raise stands, I'd try to raise small enough that he won't be scared off, but big enough that I can get all in on the river. If you have $275 behind after raising $40, I would bump it up to $125, leaving only $190 for a river shove into a $300 pot. He shouldn't fold for $60 more.
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Quote:
Later, UTG raises to $6, MP calls, I raise to $25 from BTN w/ 9 7 , BB raises to $63, UTG fold, MP calls, I call getting over 4:1 and both stacks covering me.
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For a suited connector, you typically need to have a minimum of 15-1 implied/pot odds to see a flop. With a one gapper, you'd be better off looking for 20-1 odds.
In this case, you're having to call $38 into a pot of $158 which gives you 4-1 pot odds. We need to make up the other 16-1 in implied odds which means you'd need to have effective stacks of $610 behind to make this a reasonable call. Since you only had $230 behind, you were getting 10-1 overall odds, which makes this a fold preflop. Position and hand sexiness only go so far.
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