also in #A3, bet more on turn, like 25$ at least

You are prob right but I think it largely depends on the turn card.

If the turn card is a low card like 2, 3, 4, or 6, I totally agree - bet more.

The offsuit K is a bad card for them - it doesn't help any drawing hand, and it is an overcard to the board so 5x 66 now gets scared.
So I thought to bet an amount that anything can call - SD, FD, 5x, other pairs.
I also don't mind inducing a raise by 7x or FD.

Looking forward to discussing more.

You need to charge those draws so that if they do hit, you can make more.

If you actually think you can induce these players to raise, then ok

KQ hand isn't too bad. Kinda a cooler

9Tcc hand preflop call is totally standard. Not too loose like you were saying. Flop call is also very standard given bottom pair and backdoor flush draw/str8 draw. Turn check is fine and river should also be a check. Turning our hand into a bluff there is bad imo. Nothing is folding. We should jus check back and hope to win against a smaller pair or somethin.

75dd hand I would bet flop or check raise. Either is okay. Once we bet and get two calls it's likely someone if not both villains have a draw. With 45 in the middle we should be betting 30 ish at least. 18 is much too small. River seems fine.

Thanks & welcome back! See you soon

Hand #B1 - Missed bluff opportunity?

1/2 at Venetian, normal-slightly loose table, been at the table for 1.5h

Tourist raises to 6 UTG, three calls, I overcall in CO with 9J, BTN calls, six-way

Flop ($36) 239 Six-way
Checked to MP (ABC) who bets a LOL 10
NTA (normal) calls
I raise to 50
Maybe too big, 40 could work too
BTN (competent) didn't see my cards and was cutting chips to raise too, after he sees my raise he calls
Not feeling good at this moment
Rest fold, HU

Turn ($156) K HU
I check, he checks

River ($156) A HU
Doubt he called my flop raise with FD, kinda want to bluff him off 23/22/33 (even though he has the 3 it's hard for him to call)... but at the same time worrying about him having 9x with x being 8, T, or even J... Finally decide to just give up.
I check, he checks and wins with 23

Was it a +EV bluff spot?

Hand #B2 Good fold?

2/5 at Bellagio, normal table, been at the table for 2h

Eff 600
UTG opens to 20
Older guy who calls pref raise/3b high percentage of time. Donks flop with huge bets (PSB) a lot, but has been seen doing so with good hands. Some other times he c/f. Has problem laying down good but not nutted hands.
Two calls
I raise OTB to 110 with KK
only UTG calls

Flop ($250) A49 HU
He checks, I check

Turn ($250) 7
He leads 200

If he had done this one week ago I'd snap call. I would follow my read that "this guy almost always donk flop (NOT TURN) when he has a hand, but this time he checked flop, this is suspicious and could be an indication of bluffing." And back then I used to bluff catch with 1k stack so 600 is NBD (LOL ).
But I have been working so hard in the past week on my leaks, therefore some scientific reasoning went through my head:

HYPOTHESIS I: He almost always donk flop (NOT TURN) when he has a hand, but this time he checked flop, this is suspicious and could be an indication of bluffing.
SUPPORTING FACT: He donks flop with good hands.
DEDUCTION: He doesn't check flop with good hands.
CONCLUSION: Reject with 55% confidence. No proof he doesn't check flop to slowplay/induce.

HYPOTHESIS II: This guy is bluffing.
SUPPORTING FACT: None Haven't seen him bluffing yet...
CONCLUSION: Reject with 80% confidence.

HYPOTHESIS III: He has nothing therefore he needs to bluff.
SUPPORTING FACT: None. He did open UTG and called my 3b
CONCLUSION: Reject with 90% confidence.

HYPOTHESIS IV: He saw me check the flop and put me on KK/QQ. He could be turning his TT/JJ into a bluff.
SUPPORTING FACT: None. No evidence that he is good and fearless enough to do that. Even if he is good this is not a great bluff spot - I obv haz a hand what makes him think I can fold?
CONCLUSION: Reject with 85% confidence.

Finally I decide I am having lots of wishful thinking again... Really don't want to repeat my mistakes from last week so I tank fold. Was irritated and left immediately.

Later a friend told me that he said he was bluffing...

After adjusting from being over-aggro, am I over-cautious now?

HAND C1:

2/5 at Bellagio, been at the table for 30min, table appears normal

EP limps, two calls, I make it 110 OTB with KK.
Only EP calls.

EP is young darker male, somewhat active, seems confident and capable, haven't seen any wrongdoings/leaks from him yet. Eff 600
In an earlier hand I 3b from the blinds with AK and cbet on KK8hh HU he folded.

Flop ($250) T84r
He leads 100, I call

Turn ($450) 5o
He leads 100, I call
Struggled a bit about whether to raise/shove here. Assume he is competent (which he seems to be), he can't be leading twice with draws/Tx/JJ/QQ?! What if he is leading flop with TT/88/T8/AA and trying to induce a shove here?
I just don't have read/proof that he would lead two streets with worse in a 3b pot, and I don't know what he can call a raise with (not sure whether he is bad enough to GII with Tx/JJ/QQ)?
If it were 1/3 I might raise just because of the 'random spazz factor' (a lot of times villains do surprise me with what they lead with), but I think that factor is low here :s
So I just call.

River ($650) 2o
He leads 200, I call
Same reasons as above.

He shows JJ
Feel I might have missed value but who knows. Maybe he will fold to my turn shove and I'd have missed river value? Maybe I'd lose more in the long term run?

HAND C2:

2/5 at Bellagio, been at the table for 1h, table is a little bit reggy

One limp I open UTG+3 to 20 with 99, LP calls, SB calls, three-way

Flop ($60) 367r
I cbet 40, only SB calls
SB is young white girl who just transferred from another table with 1k stack. Seems competent

Turn ($140) Jo
She checks, I check
I honestly don't know what she has I just know sets/67/45 unlikely unless she is that passive/trappy. Aside from that, I haven't played with her so I am not sure she's playing 45/56/67/A7 OOP. 88 likely. And depends on how she views me she could even flatted pre with TT. Not being able to put her on a hand, I check

River ($140) 7o
She checks, I check
I feel if I bet I am almost only getting value from 88, while losing to all 7x/slowed played monsters/TT. Doubt she has and is calling with 6x. Think it's too thin so I check back

She shows 44

Over-cautious? Missed value?

Had a weird dream last night

I was playing poker in a classroom (don't ask me why), I GII pref with QQ against an older guy, and he turned over AA. I was so mad and frustrated, and as the dealer was about to deal I already took out 5 bills in preparation to pay him. Then all of a sudden everyone in the classroom was being dismissed. As other tables were leaving, I said to myself 'no way this guy is going anywhere - he's gonna try to stay till the last minute to get my money'. Magically, when I looked back at my table, his seat was empty All my frustration turned into happiness! I put the five bills back in my purse, gathered my chips, and left with the crowd. So happy lol if only real poker could be like this

Hand B1, absolutely hate your raise on the flop, what are you trying to accomplish?

also wtf pre sizing in hand C1, im assuming you made a typo somewhere

Wasn't sure about B1 either wasn't 100% happy with the raise, yet didnt feel like just calling (down)... Most cards are bad for us

C1 no typo, villain is very willing to call large raise/3b, so I sized it for value. Yea normally it should be around 80

Going to be in LA the coming week, and thinking about playing at Live At The Bike. For those who have played on the show - How did you like the experience? Would you recommend doing it? Thanks in advance for any input!

Yeah do it!

Very clear yes to playing LATB. You get others to commentate and critique your play, then you get to watch it yourself and analyze how you played vs how you normally play. Most people play differently on the show and you have a chance to see it first hand.

Highly recommend, and would be rooting you on!

Thanks drawingdead and Turntup!
So I'm gonna play at the 5/5 NLH on Tuesday 9/9 Broadcast starts 8p.
Really wonder what commentators will say about Hello Kitty glasses?

The LATB table was actually not bad, but didn't get/make too many hands, and played tight/ABC for the most part. Only interesting hands happened before the broadcast:

5/5 Eff 500

#D1: 30min into the game (no broadcast yet)
Active player opens HJ, CO calls, BTN calls, I 3b to 120 from BB with AT. Everyone folds. Original raiser asks me do I actually have a hand, I do not respond.
(Regarding the hand - I prob just call if I were IP)

#D2: 45min into the game (no broadcast yet)
UTG straddles to 10 and jokes that he's gonna defend no matter what.
Folds to me OTB with A7 and I raise to 30.
He checks his card, and says 'Oh I am gonna defend this for sure' and calls.
UTG is young white male in s9 (name Thatcher), and I believe I have played with him at Bellagio before. My impression of him was tight, hadn't seen him getting out of line.

Flop ($65) TK6r
He checks
I bet 45
He tank calls

Turn ($155) 4o
He checks
I bet 105
He tank folds

At the time I thought his range was pretty capped, very likely Tx, so I double barreled. He claimed he folded a K, and I didn't believe him until I saw the show later and realized he is capable of calling light then folding dominated hands. Phew I took a risk

#D3: Toward the end of the show
Folds to me in LJ (HJ-1) with ATo and I open to 20.
BTN calls
SB calls
BB calls

Flop ($80) J82hh
SB checks, BB donks 40 into 80
BB (Lucy in s2) has sizing tell - she is very afraid of being overdrawn and bets huge when she has a hand and there's FD on the board. Her sizing looks weak and I soooo want to raise her, but meh it's four-way, I don't have the Ah, and BTN is solid (s9, Thatcher), plus SB (s1, Josh) is laggy and barely folds to cbet... I fold reluctantly. Later when I watched the show, SB checked J6ss, and BB was betting with 44

Subbed.

I remember your posts in LLSNL.

GL op

Thanks

Does it ever happen to you that you run bad/lose exclusively at a certain stake at a particular location?

Since 8/1/14 till now (46 sessions, 143 hours):
- If I play 2/5 at Bellagio, I lose
- If I play 2/5 at other locations, I win
- If I play 1/3 at Bellagio, I win

I'm confident that I play my A game most of the time.
And most sessions I lost at Bellagio 2/5 are either slow bleeding from being super card-dead (e.g. getting less than 3 playable hands in 5 hours - FYI given my ridiculous tight image I would totally open or squeeze with any Ax, Kx, connectors or gappers IP, but even those types of hands are luxuries) or bad beats (set getting runner-runner straight-ed, set getting four-flushed, villains hitting two-outers...)

I was so paranoid that I even did the following experiments:
- At Bellagio, card dead at 2/5, switched immediately to 1/3, all of a sudden I got dealt premium hands and started winning
- Badly beaten at Bellagio 2/5, went immediately to another casino for 2/5, ran good right away

So it almost looked like it's only 2/5, and only at Bellagio... What the ...???

I don't mind not playing at Bellagio but the food is so good

How do you deal with situations like this?

Think I will stay away from Bellagio for a while... but how do I know when can I go back?

Do whatever feels right

Play where you feel the most confident.

Go back when your mental block of Bellagio is gone, however long it takes.

Confidence is a huge key to winning. It frees your mind up and improves your focus. You need every edge to succeed/maximize your wins.

I felt right till bad beats started to happen

Can't agree more.

Back to Bellagio today. Won $20 at the end of the session. Great start

Not over yet

But at least I am at a different phase of run-bad now.

For the past month it was:
[X] Being super card dead (like literally folding all night)
[X] Occasionally getting a playable hand, but totally missing the board
[X] Occasionally making a hand, getting money in good but villain hitting x outer where x<=4

Now it is:
[X] Getting premium but second-best hands
[X] Flopping huge draws but brick

For this weekend:
QQ < KK
AK < AK (four-flushed)
JJ < AA
AK < QQ
A7s < JJ in 3b pot, I hit A on the flop but villain hit set too