As for the J8s hand.. Why exactly are fish so good to play against? Because they play too many hands? What do you think you are doing calling a 3bet with J8s? You are playing like the whale here. What are you trying to do? Hoping to hit a J or 8 on the flop and stacking off with a weakish pair and weak kicker? You're certainly not deep enough to be hoping to hit a flush or straight, or 2pair or trips. Why not wait for a better opportunity? Especially after a 3bet preflop, you think hitting a pair on the flop with your hand is good?
I was definetly not going for a pair here, going for a flush, 2 pair or straight. But as you said I am not really deep to do this. And I think you are right here, was a little bit unfocused I guess and didn't take a look at my stack (re buy after I fall under 90bb), what do you think is a good stack size to go for what I was aiming for? Again thanks for the feedback!
I'm not an expert in this area, so I can't give you an exact stack size. I do know calling with 11% of your stack is too much. Calling a single raise (as long as it's not too big) might be ok. But I think calling any kind of 3bet is bleeding money.
Look at it this way.. on average, on the flop, you'll hit 2 pair about 5% of the time. You'll hit a flush draw 11% of the time, and of that time you'll hit a flush 35% by the river. You'll hit an open ended straight draw close to 5% of the time, and of that time you'll hit the straight by the river about 32% of the time. And of course there's a bit of overlap there if you hit both draws on the flop. So you're not going to like the flop often.
I just did these calculations quickly (and I'm using 100bb stacks), so I'm hoping I didn't make any errors.
So let's say you called with J8s, playing it for its flush/straight potential, or to hit 2 pair or better on the flop. So you call 10bb, and the first raiser calls as well. So there's 30bb in the pot on the flop.
5% of the time you hit 2 pair or better. 15% of the time (roughly), you hit a flush draw, or open ended straight draw. I'm ignoring gutshots, because you most likely won't have the odds to draw to the straight with stacks this shallow. I'm also ignoring pair + a draw combos to keep it simple enough to calculate, but I don't think those will happen often enough to change things considerably.
So 80% of the time, you won't like the flop and will have to fold. You will have lost your 9bb that you called with preflop.
80% * -9bb = -7.2bb
You hit 2 pair or better 5% of the time. Let's say you get stacks in with one opponent and your hand holds up 90% of the time. So 90% of the time you win 100bb from that opponent, and the 10bb preflop call from the other opponent. So 110bb. And the 10% of the time you lose, you will lose your stack (minus the big blind already posted preflop). So -99bb.
(90% * 110bb) + (10% * -99bb) = +89.1bb
So 5% of the time you win 89.1bb
5% * 89.1bb = +4.5bb
Then, treating both draws the same for simplicity (they are similar)... 15% of the time you hit a draw. Say you call a 2/3 pot bet on the flop. If you don't hit your flush/straight on the turn, you'll be forced to give up since you won't have the necessary odds to call a bet on the turn. You'll hit your flush/straight about 18% of the time on the turn. So 82% of the time you'll give up and will have lost 9bb preflop + 20bb on the flop = 29bb.
82% * -29bb = -23.8bb
When you do hit on the turn, for simplicity's sake, we'll say your hand holds up and you get one opponent's stack. In reality, you still might lose to a better hand, or you might improve your draw on the turn to a bigger draw that can call another bet. So 18% of the time, we'll win 100bb from one opponent, plus the 10bb preflop bet from the other opponent (110bb).
18% * 110bb = 19.8bb
Adding those two up, -23.8bb + 19.8bb = -4bb. So the 15% of the time we flop a draw, we'll lose on average -4bb.
15% * -4bb = -0.6bb
So adding the bolded results (the amount we win/lose from each of the three scenarios -- flopping nothing, flopping 2pair+, flopping a good draw):
-7.2bb + 4.5bb -0.6bb = -3.3bb
So by calling with J8s in this manner, we're losing about 3bb each time we call.
As I said, I hope I didn't make any big errors when computing this, but this is the type of work you can do away from the tables to figure out if a certain play is profitable.
I just did these calculations quickly (and I'm using 100bb stacks), so I'm hoping I didn't make any errors.
Thanks again for this awesome input. I really appreciate your effort and definetly made a strong point. I will take this advice when I am sitting with suited connectors OOP. Best of luck!
11/09: Today I started the day disoriented in NL25, I didn't know how to react to this high amount of 3bets. But I luckily came across this wonderful video in the pokerschoolonline website: https://www.pokerschoolonline.com/ar...ith-Aggression
And after watching it I played a lot better. Pretty tough week this one, 2 important exams are coming so I have to study which means less time for poker, but after that I am pretty much free if all goes well. Feeling really motivated, and looking forward for more.
Against LAG: I felt there was something wrong with this hand when he raised me, totally got me here. I thought he might have a T.
Unknown Villain: Really weird hand, I have this feeling that I had him beat, and he just went for some kind of semi bluff, pretty interesting hand in my opinion. Maybe 3bet him on turn? What do you think?
First hand is just a cooler. Second hand you played fine. You had good odds to call, and that's the play I would have made. I don't think 3bet shoving is terrible, but if you're up against a set, you're in a bit of trouble. I think better to play it slower and hope for a club which doesn't pair the board.
The hand history for the third hand is the same as the second..
11/10: What a heater, playing really good, feeling great. Can't play a lot of hands because I am studying a lot. Bankroll is looking great! I am really motivated I can't stop repeating this, but that's the truth.
Got a new computer, bought it a couple of months ago, finally arrived today to argentina, the screen is much wider and much more comfortable to play 6 tables with.
More updates tomorrow!
Against LAG: Pretty loose guy, decided to turn this hand into a bluff,
I think the turn card was a good spot to double barrel so he can fold AK, AQ,etc. I really regret not making it bigger on the river, should have bet around 3/4 of the pot,
Heaters are always nice haha. Saw you at the tables today. I really liked that one table where one maniac was building another of the villain's stacks pretty big lol. Sucks that I fed him back with nut flush draw all in on the flop. No luck for me that session Glad you were doing better!
hi, FuzzingIrish, i have a few questions for you.
1. do u ever bluff with air? i don't like folding to cbet when i have air, so i sometimes bluff raise.
2. how often do u cbet when u have nothing or weak hand in position/ out of position?
3. how do you remember style of each player when multitabling? i can't even concentrate on a single table
Last edited by Amature3921; 11-11-2014 at 11:58 AM.
Heaters are always nice haha. Saw you at the tables today. I really liked that one table where one maniac was building another of the villain's stacks pretty big lol. Sucks that I fed him back with nut flush draw all in on the flop. No luck for me that session Glad you were doing better!
Hey you should have talked via chat, I didn't recognize you. Next time talk to me so I can recognize your ps name. Thanks for always passing through my thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amature3921
hi, FuzzingIrish, i have a few questions for you.
1. do u ever bluff with air? i don't like folding to cbet when i have air, so i sometimes bluff raise.
2. how often do u cbet when u have nothing or weak hand in position/ out of position?
3. how do you remember style of each player when multitabling? i can't even concentrate on a single table
Hey man,
1) This depends on so many factors. What type of player are you playing against? What's the board like? Is it very connected? What holdings you represent in that particular spot, what does your opponent represents as well. These are things you should be always thinking about.
2, 3) Well first of all, it is very important to have a HUD, which will gather information of every player in the table, and you must know how to read this information. After gathering some hands I already know what type of player he is, and I label them with the pokerstars labels as LAG players TAG players, Maniacs, Recreational players, Regs. Hope this information is useful, I recommend you join the:
Nice playing with you again FuzzingIrish. I won't specifically look for your tables in the future though lol. I ended my session up 2BI, but 2BI under EV. Tough few hands you had there earlier, but seems like you're playing well. I don't know about opening K7s from MP though, and then trying to double barrel a wet board against a fishier type player though.
11/12:] Feel like sh*t, felt like sh*t before playing, played like sh*t. My heart just broke into a thousand pieces. Hope I can turn this around. Just reached stop loss and a Stop loss session in NL25 just kills my BR. Nothing else to say.
Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.60) 7 3 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.25, CO folds, BTN raises to $5.75, Hero raises to $30.14 and is all-in, BTN calls $19.27 and is all-in
Turn: ($52.64) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in) River: ($52.64) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: $52.64 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: 7 3 2 6 8
Hero showed 9 9 and lost (-$25.77 net)
CO mucked and lost (-$0.75 net)
BTN showed A 4 and won $50.64 ($24.87 net)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN raises to $5.25, Hero raises to $10.25, BTN raises to $32.52, Hero calls $14 and is all-in
Flop: ($48.60) K 5 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in) Turn: ($48.60) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in) River: ($48.60) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: $48.60 pot ($2.00 rake)
Final Board: K 5 6 2 9
Hero showed A A and lost (-$24.25 net)
BTN showed 2 2 and won $46.60 ($22.35 net)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($6.10) 7 5 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $5.24, MP folds, CO raises to $55.43 and is all-in, Hero calls $14.45
Turn: ($45.48) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in) River: ($45.48) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: $45.48 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: 7 5 9 Q 4
MP mucked and lost (-$2 net)
CO showed 7 9 and won $43.48 ($21.79 net)
Hero showed J J and lost (-$21.69 net)
Bounce back man. Look through your session, identify the coolers and ignore them. Spend some good time looking at the hands you felt you played poorly in and figure out how to play those spots optimally next time.
Wow, i didn't realize it was that bad. I've been there, done that. I would suggest dropping down to nl10 next session just to get some confidence/good feelings back again. If you just keeping playing nl25, you might start playing scared, and that won't be good for your game. Then again, I don't know how exactly you're feeling. But it's just a suggestion. If you're still feeling good about your game and if another session with bad luck wouldn't affect you much, then keep plugging away at nl25. Either way, I hope you turn it around!
Edit: Just looked over your hands. As I mentioned before, you're overvaluing your overpairs. You probably already know that though. Probably just the tilt factor? Is your stop loss 6BI? Maybe should drop that to 4 or something..? Just another suggestion
Last edited by PokerPhilosopher; 11-13-2014 at 01:25 AM.
I just finished another session, during which I played this hand which I thought would be perfect to illustrate how not to overplay overpairs (considering the hands you posted earlier). I'm not saying I play perfectly, cause I sure don't lol. I may not have even played this perfectly.
UTG is a 68/24 whale over 200 hands.
BTN is a 25/19 over 200 hands with a 0.9 AF.
Preflop: Hero is CO with K K
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.50
Preflop, standard raise for value. Except, I usually raise 4bb after a limp to isolate. Don't know why I didn't do that here.. probably didn't notice the limp and thought it was the BB or something.
Turn, if I cbet again here and get two more calls (which is likely given the turn card), there will be about a pot size bet left on the river. So I'd pretty much be committing myself, as betting the turn and folding on the river wouldn't be a great play. I'm 144bb deep vs the BTN, and I don't want to get 144bb in with one pair on such a wet board vs 2 opponents. And even if I get a club on the river, I still could lose a huge stack to the nut flush, which is a very possible situation.
So I check, hoping it gets checked around so I can control the size of the pot. BTN bets.. With a 0.9 aggression factor, I'm likely beat at this point. And I think there's a very good chance he's holding the ace of clubs. Then UTG calls. Extremely likely I'm beat now. And if not, half the deck is likely to kill me on the river. It's not worth risking a huge stack in this situation when I only have 11bb invested. So I think folding is the right option, even with the king high flush draw.
River: ($18.54) 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, BTN bets $33.86 and is all-in, UTG calls $15.18 and is all-in
Spoiler:
Results: $48.90 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: J 4 3 T 4
UTG mucked Q Q and lost (-$22.91 net)
BTN showed 7 A and won $46.90 ($23.99 net)
As you can see by the results, I was drawing dead on the turn. Without having seen the results, it may seem like a tight fold. But I'm just showing you this hand as an example of how to use caution when playing an overpair, and the thought process behind it. Assuming I played it correctly, which may or may not be the case.
Feel like sh*t, felt like sh*t before playing, played like sh*t. My heart just broke into a thousand pieces. Hope I can turn this around. Just reached stop loss and a Stop loss session in NL25 just kills my BR. Nothing else to say.
What does your stoploss look like? Looks like 6 or 7 BI?
To avoid these kind of sessions, how about limiting it to 3 BI?
I guess we've all had such a session sooner or later (at least I have), and I know how ****ty it feels. For me it works to just quit for at least an hour or two when I hit stoploss and get rid of all tilting thoughts in my head. After that, review your session and see where it went wrong, and be sure it's not happening again.
11/19: Long time no seen. Haven't updated the thread for a couple of reasons. After that awful downswing and lost of confidence on my game, my mindset was completely messed up. I decided not to update the thread till I recover mentally and got my mindset back on track. After reviewing lots of my loosing sessions, and playing a decent amount of hands every day since last update I feel like I am back on track again.
Lost all my PT4 hands because of my new computer, couldn't transfer the hand history don't know why. Anyways I will be updating the thread again.
Good to see you back on track. If you find yourself having a similar swing in the future, just do what I do occasionally. Play lower limits where the money won't affect you, and just play around and have fun. Experiment with things. Anyway, I know what you're going through. I just had a 9BI downswing myself over the last 2 days. 5 yesterday, 4 today. Managed to get 3 of them back at the end of my session, but it can be tough mentally. Are you still playing nl10, or back at nl25?
Good to see you back on track. If you find yourself having a similar swing in the future, just do what I do occasionally. Play lower limits where the money won't affect you, and just play around and have fun. Experiment with things. Anyway, I know what you're going through. I just had a 9BI downswing myself over the last 2 days. 5 yesterday, 4 today. Managed to get 3 of them back at the end of my session, but it can be tough mentally. Are you still playing nl10, or back at nl25?
Decided to quit the 20BI rule and go for the conservative route, so will keep on playing NL10 till I get to $1k. It is always very helpfull to review sessions, it helped me a lot. And of course keep working on the game as you say, best of luck man! I will see you at the tables.
Decided to quit the 20BI rule and go for the conservative route, so will keep on playing NL10 till I get to $1k. It is always very helpfull to review sessions, it helped me a lot. And of course keep working on the game as you say, best of luck man! I will see you at the tables.
You got Skype? Would be cool to chat strat/sweat. I play 10z if ur interested.
11/21: Been playing excelent poker. Really happy with results. I was a bit bored with the regular tables and was feeling like playing some zoom. So let me show you the graphs, I also played some regular euro tables. Got another $50 dollar VIP reward, a little boost for my bankroll is always nice, really excited and motivated! Looking forward for more.
NL10 Zoom
NL10
NL10 Euro (Just played when I found a soft table)
Best of luck!
Last edited by FuzzingIrish; 11-22-2014 at 03:14 AM.
Reason: grammar
11/22: Pretty big day, so I started playing some zoom poker, couldn't play a lot cause I am travelling tomorrow and I had to do a couple of things. But I won a sunday storm sat with 250 Fpp and played the $11 heads up turbo tournament, finished 2nd and I officially broke the $1k mark. Really excited, going to play some 25NL tomorrow.
Nice work FuzzingIrish, and good luck back at nl25. I'll see you again at the tables hopefully. About your 88 hand, why do you 3bet preflop? I'm not saying it's a terrible play or anything, but I like flatting better there. You got lucky and hit a set on the turn in that hand, but eights are a tricky hand to play in a 3bet pot postflop out of position. Much easier to play postflop with a smaller pot. Especially against an unknown villain. Just my 2 cents on that hand lol.
Nice work FuzzingIrish, and good luck back at nl25. I'll see you again at the tables hopefully. About your 88 hand, why do you 3bet preflop? I'm not saying it's a terrible play or anything, but I like flatting better there. You got lucky and hit a set on the turn in that hand, but eights are a tricky hand to play in a 3bet pot postflop out of position. Much easier to play postflop with a smaller pot. Especially against an unknown villain. Just my 2 cents on that hand lol.
Hey man, thanks for always sharing your thoughts. Flatting a 2bb raise is pretty weak imo. I am pretty sure I am ahead with my hand here. And I am really confident about my postflop play, which gives me a big advantage in Nl10. See you ar the tables.
11/24: Great day at NL25. Been playing only zoom, still not feeling like playing regular tables. I already arrived to my home town called San Martin de los Andes, pretty small town, population around 40k I'll leave some pictures so you guys can see how it looks.
I took $20 from my account and put them in my new Neteller acount to try and withdraw the money to my bank account, but I've been struggling because when they ask me what is the currency I use in my bank account, my currency (peso argentino) does not appear, If anyone has any comments on this I truly appreciate it, don't know how to solve this.
Anyways, here is the NL25 graph, and some pictures from San Martin.