Playing backwards poker to maximize value vs nits
Lets say that you are in the BB and nit has opened the BTN. This will happen. If you 3bet he will fold. If he calls pre. He will fold flop. If he calls flop he will fold turn. If he calls turn he will fold river. He will eventually find a reason to fold no matter what. Trust me
So what kind of hands do you want to 3bet this type of player ? Junk! Hands that you want to get folds with. T9s/K2s/A7o. Around 15%-20% of the best junk. Keep exploiting him folding too much forever. This works because nits do not adjust to your trash 3betting ever. They just keep folding and you keep 3betting.
So what to do with premiums ? It's definately +EV to 3bet AA/AK vs this player. Problem is it may not the most +EV line. There is a better way. It is to call and CR alot of flops ! This will happen ------->
Nit cbets and gets raised. He is fkced. He has no clue what to do with K7 or JJ. He should have the best hand on this flop and aggro reg is repping really thin. So he makes a curious call. BIG mistake as we allready know. We bet half pot on a blank turn and nit is in trouble again. If we go back a bit and think what would have happened if we had 3bet AA or AK. On this flop villain could not even have K7. This is where the maximum value comes from. When just flat the open it keeps the ****ty TPs in villain's range. He is in big trouble playing KT/K9/K8/K7/K6/K4/K2 on this flop. When we 3bet he will never have these hands OTF. But when we CR the flop and barrel away he will call K7 atleast 2x. Maybe even 3x. We give him the opportunity to make a big mistake. Mistake he would never ever make in a 3bet pot if I 3bet and barreled AA on K55hh 6d 9d.
Easy 3barrel either way w AA. Except if we CR the flop and the flush hits the turn. Flush is in our perceived range. As it is in villain's range also. OTF villain had around 30 combos of FD. 40 trips. 90 TP. 30 PP below K. The weak hands still outnumber the monsters even after the flush completing turn. Value bet half pot. At a river blank we can check comfortably. He still has his 70 combos of uber nuts. TP combos and PP are getting lower by the streets. He is a nit, so even if he makes alot more mistakes with them when we take the CR line, he is still a nit even after all this is said and done. Value shove might be bit too thin. Don't hate small ridic blocker bet. But check is fine. He will not turn anything into bluff and if he shoves he has a flush at minimum. Easy game