OP: please post hands ! I alrdy wrote here this once

Sorry guys, had a birthday and a 1 year anniversary back to back days so I haven't played. I put in another 100~ hands this morning and my BR is currently at $815.16

He means post hand histories, not how many hands you've played

I know what he's requesting, I will post them when I get some time. I'm using a MAC so I have to bootcamp into Windows and convert hands w/ Bovada hand converter and then pull them out of Poker Tracker.

Just had another 1~ hr session, ended up +$17 which is great seeing as I was on the wrong end of a set over set.

CO raised to $.85
BTN called
I called out of SB w/ 44

Flop 458
I check, CO Cbets $1, BTN flat calls, I raise to 3.75. CO folds and button snap raises to $9. End up tank folding and showing 44, he shows me 55


BR: 832.00

Good fold. Obviously, but I think a lot of players would have gii. Maybe I'm just a fish.

Btw, I took another look at ur 25NL graph and I must say, nice red-line.

Keep crushing

I don't think it was THAT difficult of a fold. The guy was running 24/18 and I had only seen him limp/just call once preflop and it was with a middle pair set mining.

I figured if he was drawing and trying to realize fold equity, he would have probably done it when the CO bet the flop. My line is so strong in this spot, I just can't see him raising with a FD in an attempt to get me to fold. Also given he's in position, I think he's probably fine flatting and seeing the turn with a FD.

I can't imagine he would just call the CO bet with 2p and honestly the guy wasn't playing loose enough to have 2p on that board anyway. I just couldn't find a hand that I could legitimately beat and ended up folding. It would have been a much more difficult decision if I had 55 and tbh I probably end up shoving there every time. Another thing is if the villain flat calls, I'm probably GII on the turn.

Here is my updated 25 NL graph. It's missing $55 I won today.



I'll post some hands in a minute

Here are some hands from the last few days



Pretty standard for the most part, villain was Cbetting 100% of the time and he seemed to be a pretty big fish. I really hate the turn card but I have to call because this guy was a maniac.







Put the guy on 77 or 67, LOL @ him calling me down with A high







Guy called me down in this spot most likely due to tilt. I had shown him a 3 barrel bluff including overbet on river about 15 minutes earlier and I had no doubt he was going to call me down light. I took the exact same line from before.








I figured the guy had a set on the turn, but taking implied odds into consideration, I knew I could fold river if I blanked or win a monster pot if I hit a 7 or 9.







Ya...I uh...ya....whoops








Wanted to throw up when a spade hit the river. Guy had been running 55/45 and was literally betting almost every street with ATC. Decided to set a trap and try to play the hand like I had AK or a scared pair of 10's. So gross because everything was setup perfectly and then the 4th spade hits. I actually made a bad fold out of disgust and realized the guy was barrelling off whether he had a spade or not on the river. Should have called and prayed, which he showed up with K2 so I would have won.

I find this fairly amusing. While it won't continue long term, and it was primarily due to my play at 5 and 10 NL, I'm actually winning over 14 BB/100 from every position including the BB.

I think I'm something like -17 bb/100 from the BB at 25 NL though as I've shifted my play style.

Never.

Here is a graph of players win rates online at all levels, for players that played 1000+ hands in 2010.




Notice how they don't even bother posting a x axis that goes up to 30bb/100? Only 0.5% of players are making 10bb/100. Only like ~1% of all players made ~between 10bb/100 and 15bb/100 at all levels.

Here is a graph that shows potential variance outcomes for a 10bb/100 winner over the course of a small sample of 15k hands.



Plug 10bb/100 into this calc to get more info.
http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/


So, 5% of the time a true 10bb/100 (top 1% of winrates) player can expect to run better than 26.33 bb/100 over this sample size. And, over that same sample size a true 10bb/100 player can also expect to lose -6.33bb/100, or more, over that small sample 5% of the time. Basically, even if you are a top 1% winner online in terms of win rate, you are still probably running at the 99% confidence interval over the last 15k hands.

I know when you are running like God it feels like you are great, and can do no wrong. I'm not trying to be a dick, but I think it is good to recognize the reality of the situation so that you don't get frustrated when things go bad, or closer to normal, in the future. The average top winner online can still expect a 10+ BI downswing every 100k hands, no matter how good they are. Your biggest DS so far appears to be 2 or 3 BI's, which most players just consider a 'Monday'.

Congrats on your results to date though, and GL with the goals.

I think you must also take into consideration that I just started playing again and I'm currently only at 25 NL. I will soon move up to 50 NL, which will have better players, and will in all likelyhood reduce my winrate regardless of how I run due to a better field.

That graph, for most winning players, proposes they're playing at stakes they've reached after playing for 100's of thousands of hands and have likely plateaued, or neared it at least, in terms of their relative maximal level where they can achieve a decent winrate.

Wouldn't one assume that a 200 NL player with a 5bb/100 winrate could achieve a much higher winrate at 10 NL, in terms of blinds not $ obviously.

Also as for the challenge

Currently sitting at $876.69 BR. Going to try to hit $1,000 tonight if I run well, we'll see how it goes.

Also new graph for 25 NL excluding $55 in wins thus far today

fwiw it's ridiculous to conclude that you're a 30bb/100 winner over your given sample but also I think the data Hendrix is using is likely from tougher sites so I think winning over 10bb is definitely possible.

I'm not saying 10bb/100 isn't possible on micro bovada fwiw. Quite possible. Just that, even someone posting this very very solid win rate (even for Bovada) over the longterm, can experience some pretty crazy variance over 15k hands. Good or Bad. In this case crazy good.

I mean, not trying to bring myself into this thread, since it's joyner89's, but providing a personal example. I think I'm somewhere around 10bb/100 over a million or so hands lifetime across all stakes on pokerstars (mostly nl25-nl100). I just started back into poker on Bovada, and experienced a 17 BI downswing at nl25 about a month ago against worse players than I played at my lowest level on stars. Crazy stuff can happen over small sample sizes against awful players, that you wouldn't believe if you didn't see it. Obviously that can go the other way too. There's all kinds of top winners at stakes that post million hand graphs that go up at a 45 degree angle, but if you look close, you can see 100k breakeven, or even losing, stretches.

Hendrix, I'm not sure how it's possible to lose that many BI's on Bovada 25 NL without getting coolered at least a few dozen times. If you're running a HUD, like I'm sure you are, then you should EASILY be able to find the exploitable players. It's absurd how bad the vast majority of the other players at 25 NL are. At least 1/3 of them run something like 40/10 .8 AF. And then theres the shortstackers that will hand you money if you play made hands in creative ways that confuse them...This is obviously 25 NL regular, not Zone. I hate Zone, that is literally cooler after cooler.

As for tonight, decent session I guess. Was pretty card dead/ended up +$10 because I got coolered with 2nd nut flush vs nut flush while i was in the BB in a limp pot. That cost me $24. Also had another few tricky spots that I got too cute with and ended up losing decent size pots.

Which I did. As any winning player does when they go through the inevitable downswings that come with poker. - 10 BI's in all in EV over 8k hands (basically losing every flip), accompanied with, tons of times running into top of peoples ranges that didn't show up in 'all in EV', (Ex. twice with top FH, running into quads, KK vs. AA aipf, people flopping trips 2's in 3 bet pots, or rivering obscure 2 pairs like j2o, etc...) accompanied with just constant bad run outs, (ex. 3 bet pot, board runs out 4 flush, 4 straight, top pair pairs, multiple overcards come, etc... where you either a) don't get max value as a result or b) have to fold after putting a ton into the pot.)


I don't mean to complain. Thing is, it happens. Something we all have to deal with. As good as you are running right now, if you keep playing there will inevitably come a time where you run just as bad, vs. players you have no idea how you are losing to. If you go to the link I posted, it shows the downswing you can expect, even as a 10bb/100 winner that is crushing his stake like few others. About one 10+ BI downswing per 100,000 hands on average, and a downswing as big as 23 BI's somewhere in that million hands even though you are still playing the same brand of 10bb/100 poker you always have. Prior to this last downswing, the biggest downswings I've ever had are multiple 10-12 BI downswings. But, there comes a time where you wonder how many times you can get a person to stick half their stack in with only 2-4 cards that can help them, and they hit every time.

Sample size way too small to draw any meaningful conclusion. Need at least 150k. Even that some may think it's too small.

And BR is officially at $916.56 after todays 2 hour session

Nice! I hope you keep crushing, sir!

This might be possible in 20k hands, but need a super soft field and to run godlike. When the dowswings start hitting you'll understand what people were trying to explain to you...

Still, GL OP! Will follow

BTW here are a couple of Hero folds I've made in the last thousand~ hands to save me $$.

Both villains were complete fish running 40/18 with 1~ AF. In the second hand, the SB was about the same and I put him on diamonds with the CO being a set min, with KJ more likely.

I don't really feel like typing a few paragraphs to explain my thought process, so I'll just post the hands.

sorry, this was the first hand

Nice! If you get around to it I'd love to read your thought process on these hands. What were the CO's stats like in the set over set hand?

He was running something like 20/12 1.2 AF 10% 3bet

-He wasn't playing loose enough to have 85 in that spot
-If he had a FD and was trying to realize fold equity, why wouldn't he raise the MP's Cbet? The line I took in this spot was super aggressive and he just insta 3bets me on the flop to an amount that was clear he wanted to GII asap to get the max out of draws. I found almost inconceivable that he was 3betting a FD, for FEq, given his flat call and his relatively tight/passive play to that point.

My line is that I have a set, flopped the nuts, have a FD/Combo draw, or want to take down the pot because CO put out a very weak bet.

Given how strong I was, I just couldn't possibly see him having anything in this spot other than 88, 55, or 67. And even if he did have a pair+GS+FD like 56, which was the absolute bottom of his range as he's 3betting TT+ pre on the button, I was only a 60% favorite.

Ultimately I only had 35% equity vs the nuts, 60% vs his bottom range(which was highly unlikely, and had 1 out vs 88/55.

This was ONLY due to me having bottom set. If I had 55 and he had 88 for instance, I'm obviously shoving because he could easily have 44 in that spot. But bottom set on that board, vs how he played the hand, I just couldn't find much that I could beat at that point and folding seemed to be the proper play.

If he raises the MP Cbet and I 3bet, then I am calling his 4bet shove at that point because I would have committed over 1/3 my stack and he could have Ax spades or a combo draw with that line.