this is probably boring and tl:dr but i'm posting it anway, this thread is kinda becoming a work blog/diary, where i actually have a chance to think about stuff. its also giving me a motivation to grind.
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my bodyclock still all over the place, woke up 1:30am, started session at 2:30am. my goal was to get my total profit over $10k on the sharkscope leaderboard. there were loads of games running and the 45s looked as tough as i'd seen them. i actually really enjoy it when the games play harder, makes it a lot more interesting then just stack a donk.
as lots of 15s and 30s running, i wanted to make sure i played well and made good individual decisions on each hand, so i made sure that i didn't go above 18 tables, and 12-18 table most of the session. i thought i played really well, with just a few mistakes creeping in near the end so i decided to take a break.
i've taken to not looking at the cashier at all until i've only got a couple of tables left before i goto quit.
(got that from this excellent thread)
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...-tl-dr-947149/ )
pretty shocked to see the the downswong.
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random ramblings
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what i want to remember from this day is the attitude i had towards it during my break, how it differs from just playing 45's instead of mixing in 180s and mtts.
still as of now i need to keep my roll to $1139. once it goes over i need to make a withdrawal to save towards paying off my debts. i dont want to make any deposits, if it goes down too low to buyin for everything i'll just grind it up from the $3's.
during this month i've been playing as high as 20rs, 30 1r1a, 82 hypers etc off my $1139, buying in for whatever i could to get the tables up. i feel i am still +ev in the games despite my long absense from mid/high stakes mtts.
having that $1139 and exclusively playing 45s allows me not to have to check the cashier while i'm playing or spend time working out which buyins i can afford to play to get 18 tables up.
i spoke with my gf on one of the breaks, i said i'm not getting lucky, but theres loads of games running and i'm playing well, she said its good you sound like your enjoying it.
its true, i am enjoying poker much more since now since exclusively playing the 45's. i hope this lasts!
not having to deal with the variance of busto'in my account by playing 180's and mtt's, and spending my whole time working out what i can afford to play is NOT the way to go about it. its still really frustrating knowing that i could be playing higher and making more money but taking the low variance path for another month is the way to go for me and my sanity right now.
the thought of completely busto'ing my roll doesn't even cross my mind right now as playing just 45's forces me to play reg speed 6's and 3's. as my roi in these is higher it massively reduces my variance. i feel like i'm so stupid its taken me so long to
really realise that less risk = long term higher $ev. not just in poker, but in sports and life too i guess. i always just look at straight up $ev and think about risk later. i've always just thought "hey i'm professional gambler i can handle the variance" which is true, i can handle it like other people in the world cannot, but it is not the longer term $ev for me.
the reason i overbet my sports betting roll before was because my life was getting to expensive for my current earning capacity on that income on such a small roll. its easy to think that i'm betting fractional kelly i can never go broke! but my whole roll was in play each week betting fractional kelly on multiple scenarios, possibly overestimating my edge, having huge exposure on certain golfs not to win the tournament. the black swan had to occur at some point i guess
--golf off topic.
the thing that really screwed me was justin rose winning the tour championship of a 30 runner event. he form previously had been awful, but he took the commanding lead from day 1 and because it was a limited field event i had little/no oppertunities to reduce my exposure as no one came close to catching him as the field was so small. it was also a week where there was no european golf so i had double the exposure on that market then usual. i was also in singapore that weekend working on my new model with a friend there and was not able to monitor my bets. thing to note, keep exposure lower on small field events
however live and learn and come back stronger!
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theres a great thread in hsnl
[url]http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/high-stakes-pl-nl/how-do-you-get-over-massive-losses-1159531/[url]
for me been a long process of frustration off getting over the fact that in 2008 i had over $200k sitting on the pokersites (before i realised that they were probably not the safest places to keep my entire net worth!) to go to having a $1k online roll playing $10 tournaments for a living. i got berated in the chat by a reg stating the fall off "JayPez" grinding micros for a living after this crazy hand. (he later told me he was just joking around, nps
)
--offtopic again----
PokerStars Game #72941707819: Tournament #491326970, $3.19+$0.31 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (6000/12000) - 2011/12/29 16:37:43 CCT [2011/12/29 3:37:43 ET]
Table '491326970 5' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 3: xxxxxxxx (493912 in chips)
Seat 5: scheppse (36000 in chips)
Seat 6: JayPez (214200 in chips)
Seat 8: Shouganaine (264888 in chips)
xxxxxxxxx: posts the ante 1200
scheppse: posts the ante 1200
JayPez: posts the ante 1200
Shouganaine: posts the ante 1200
Shouganaine: posts small blind 6000
xxxxxxxxx: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JayPez [Ah 9c]
scheppse: folds
JayPez: raises 12000 to 24000
Shouganaine: folds
xxxxxxxxx: raises 468712 to 492712 and is all-in
JayPez: calls 189000 and is all-in
he had 26o. i'll stand by raise call play even with the icm implications, i wrote him a long strat post in a pm if people are interested to read it will post it
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one of the posts i like in that "how do you get over massive losses thread" is
"We are where we are today... work with what you've got."
where am i today with regards to my work? i'm making very steady solid money grinding a low variance game which require very little capital to play. I think with the amount of volume i'm putting in in these games i could become the best at the format then out of everybody who plays them. sure, i'm not making as much as i was 3-4 years ago in poker but then there are very few players who played then that still are. So i am very thankful that i still have the opportunity to still make money at this game, as black friday shows it could all be taken away in an instance, so i will make the most of it while its there.
this is why i am glad to make this thread as it makes me think for a bit, and actually post on 2+2 because before i was ashamed. i'm no longer the baller that plays $1ks and $5/10nl, but right now i'm contented. i hope this feeling lasts!
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so anyway back to 45's, i tried to work out if it was possible for me to grind as many of them as possible to get my to my expectation of $1219 to get me to that $10k on the leaderboard. at $2 a game (probably less since its off peak, and no $30s and few $15s running) that 600 games which would probably take me a good 24hours to do, so i gave up on that idea and just decided to play another block of games until they really die (about 3am est) where i struggle to even get 12 tables of $3s+ running.
so anyway i smashed it after i got nearly all of it back with a 100% roi over 67 3's which i'm especially happy with as i havn't been making the correct adjustments for all the fishies in them.
anyway long emo post.
i'm out!