Cool thread mate, gl with it. I've been playing these while I wait for Rush to come back on Tilt. I started off like you, made $800 in my first 200 games and then hit a downswing which I'm only just recovering from now after 500 games or so. Variance is obviously pretty huge, but it sounds like you're on the right track, so keep it up.

P.S. Can anyone help me with setting up AHK? I've had a look round but I don't quite understand the setup yet. Sorry to derail the thread, keep it up OP.

Baz i wouldn't read too much into your overall EVBB stat. It is heavily skewed by early game allins when you are 75-50bb deep. We know that getting it in with AK here is fine for the most part but our ev stat will be ruined by winning these flips or losing them, as in the later stages of the game a similar allin would only be for 5-15bb.
Filter then for pre and post ante and then you will see how you are doing at different stages of the game. I find that i'm running fairly badly once i hit the money

Thanks I'll definitely get that series from DC when I can. I used my free trial on DC a couple of months ago and downloaded about half of the current content on the site, but I don't think I got this series I'll try and get it off a friend. Gl with moving up to the $8 games. It seems like such a massive jump. Why haven't they got like $5 or $6 ones?


Yeah variance sucks when it's causing a massive downswing. But I guess it can just as easily cause a massive heater. Heaters are all I plan to have in the next couple of thousand games!

I've actually got AHK installed on the recommendation of a mate ages ago, but I never actually got round to using it yet, so I'm afraid I'm no help to you atm.

Yeah I wasn't looking at my EV BB/100 as a value and analysing that. I was merely comparing the difference to my BB/100 in order to get a feel for how lucky or unlucky I've been getting. The fact I'm above EV must imply that I've been on the correct side of the early 75 BB races more often than expected. Also:

BB/100 pre ante = 18.04
EV BB/100 pre ante = 13.65

BB/100 post ante = 1.35
EV BB/100 post ante = 0.96

Pre ante is ~ 25k hands and post ante is ~ 16k hands, so fairly similar sample sizes.

So I'm clearly running well above EV pre ante, but I'm actually running on EV post ante. I definitely shouldn't be complaining about getting unlucky then
You got fairly similar BBs/100 JD? I'm just curious.

I've also got some interesting strategy ideas to talk about, based on my PFR/VPIP ratio and steal percentage at all the different blind levels. There's something which I read in 'chilin_dude's $300 to $100k thread that I clearly took to heart about the early blind levels and it's clearly working I'll discuss this later though.

Update 23

WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?????

Well I'm pretty proud of myself for not tilting badly. I just sat here for 4 hours in silence, losing race after race, AA to T5s, AA to KK twice, AK to KJ 3 times etc etc etc

This is a massive blow. I usually let the way my poker is going affect my mood, but I feel strangely okay right now. Just played 49 games and got 3 min cashes. Lost some ludicrous hands.

I know players always moan about getting unlucky because they only remember the losses, but seriously this was my unluckiest session EVER!!

For Session:

BB/100 = -7.25
EV BB/100 = +9.43

BB/100 Pre ante = -1.56
EV BB/100 Pre Ante = +12.81

BB/100 Post Ante = -21.82
EV BB/100 Post Ante = +1.79

16 BBs/100 below EV from 2k hands! And clearly getting unlucky ridiculously more in the latter stages... *sigh* I lost AA vs T5s flush draw for an 80k pot before the final table!! on 3Q3T.... He called my preflop raise, min donk bet flop and massive overbet jammed the turn.... so so so frustrating to lose to such morons, but I guess I'm happy that they are there in the long run

And here you see that of all my all-ins where my equity was 45-59%, I won 6 and lost 17:



I'm sure I'll recover!

On the plus side, I MADE SILVER STAR! Considering I've not had much time to play, I'm pretty impressed with myself for playing the volume to make silver star from $2.50 180-man SnGs. Just ironic that the session I make it is my worst session to date.

Games During Session = 49
Profit for Session = -$107.74

Overall Profit = $330.26
Bankroll = $630.27
Overall ROI = 14.8%
Overall $/hour = $4.22


Graph for Session (PAINFUL):



Overall Graph:

Happens to the best of us, have you thought about adding some 45 mans to lower variance during your downswing?

It's probably not a good idea to add in a game type that he isn't optimised to play in whilst already in a downswing of the game he IS optimised to play in.

Just keep learning your ranges, reviewing your HH and keeping the volume up! We all know how brutal the 180s can be, so just keep at it and think about how great it will be when you ship 3 of them in a day!
whenever you get frustrated with your results just think about how far you are actually behind where you want to be. You'll probably always find that you are only a few winning days away from being out of the downswing.

They aren't so different, you still have to build stacks early. Push/fold is to be used in exactly the same way in the later stages. Ranges are the same. Even ICM considerations are the same. Obviously thats just my brief 4 line summary but I don't think being 'optimised' is even relevant.

Does it not make sense to play against a reduced field to 'optimise' combatting variance?

45mans are key to building a roll at sit n go's because the variance in 180s is too large to sustain a comfortable ROI. 45s keep it steadier. You're not gonna run 200+ BI's as can often be the case at the 180s.

Just my 2-cents, but I'm gonna defend what I say when someone opinions sarcastically and offers no input of their own. I just asked OP a question.

Why do you think what i said offers no input and was sarcastic? I was just saying that i don't think it is a necessity to start firing up the 45mans just because he is having a breakeven/downswing. Its like switching to FR cash games because you are in a downswing from 6max cash. They are similar but do have differences.

What about the 4.40 180 man sngos? They aren't softer or maybe equally soft?

What about 1/2 8game? It's basically the same.

It`s problem
That is more likely causing swings, not runbad.

Some things being said itt are just bad

You don't switch games just because you've hit a bad patch

Having played 45-mans in the past (maybe a couple of hundred games on an old HEM database, I remeber that I was not profitable at them. For me to win at 45-mans, I'd need some variance to give me some short term wins!

I'm no expert, but having vaguely read strat for 45-mans, I do not believe that push-fold is to be used in exactly the same way and that ranges are not the same. Without going into detail, I've heard that you have to be shoving and calling a lot tighter in the 45-mans, simply because a higher percentage of the field cashes. I'm sure I could learn 45-mans, but that would be too much effort and I would probably get a little confused if I played them alongside the 180-mans.

Besides all that, I have set myself a challenge for 180-mans, so I am going to stick to 180-mans indefinitely until I reach $1800.01

I am happy to deal with the 180-man variance anyway.

I have no idea how tough these fields are, but the $4.40 are not turbos, so they last about 3 hours I believe. This is the only reason that I would not play these games.

Huh?

Huh? My EV BB/100 = 0.96 for all blind levels where antes are involved. I think this is actually a fairly large number. Consider that the average stack post ante is about 8-10 BBs and you'll realise that an EV BB/100 of 1 is pretty good, so I'm not sure what you're talking about here?

Thanks JD. Hit the nail on the head. I am very comfortable playing 180-mans. I can deal with the variance. Obviously, it could cause me to go bust, but this probability is exceptionally low so I am willing to take that risk. I know I am profitable at these games whereas the 45-mans would be me delving into a game that I know little about.

Onwards and upwards hopefully Playing a session now.

Update 24

Played a session at completely off-peak time, so could only get a maximum of 8 games up at any one time. The standard seemed absolutely awful:

Look at this hand

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $30(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,170)
BB ($2,570)
Hero ($2,880)
UTG+1 ($1,645)
UTG+2 ($3,050)
MP1 ($1,890)
CO ($1,940)
BTN ($7,051)

Dealt to Hero A A

Hero raises to $120, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $90

FLOP ($255) A 9 K

BB checks, Hero bets $90, BB calls $90

TURN ($435) A 9 K K

BB checks, Hero bets $300, BB calls $300

RIVER ($1,035) A 9 K K 5

BB checks, Hero bets $600, BB calls $600

BB shows 4 7
(Pre 19%, Flop 2.8%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows A A
(Pre 81%, Flop 97.2%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero wins $2,235

I don't understand! lol

Anyway, I definitely ran pretty bad on final tables but still made a tidy profit.

Games During Session = 33
Profit for Session = $43.37

Overall Profit = $374.13
Bankroll = $674.14
Overall ROI = 16.2%
Overall $/hour = $4.49

Graph for Session:



Overall Graph:

^^lol what?? must be a misclick I suppose. Why did you bet so small otf?