Hey squid, thanks! Hope all is well! I suspect that I'll be working but if that changes maybe I'll swing by. I've heard it's a lot of fun.

I disagree with the last part, but it's pointless to argue it. There are many cases where gutsy risk-taking in a career or business outweighs intelligence.

I agree. Which side are you arguing, again? I thought you believed anyone could easily learn a strategy to beat high stakes NL, but now you're pointing out how tough it is.

I don't totally disagree, but if it caves in it's going to fall on the middle of the food chain, not the top - at least long term.

All will be fish to start as they learn a new game, and the strategy is better guarded, so yeah it's much harder to learn some playbook to beat those games. Doesn't mean there aren't some of us who could make the switch.

Maybe 1% of all pros could be immediately profitable in a bunch of new games, if that many. It takes time. I think I'd be profitable in small stakes PLO variants, and in small/mid stakes LHE, but I'd be the middle of the food chain until I spent some time on it. I'd probably be a loser in stud variants and limit O8, as well as draw games with the possible exception of NL 2-7, if small stakes games were even spread.

Partially, but also as you get to a certain hourly you can't increase it regularly in NLHE anymore. In other words the biggest game regularly running in the country is usually a mix... but that's not the case in many markets.

Very rarely do big limit games run where I live. Maybe Fri-Sun, and I'm not even sure. I can play a pink chip HORSE once a week and 20-40 LHE a couple times a week. I can play bigger LHE with a long, but reasonable drive.

The freedom to move anywhere doesn't just mean moving to Vegas so you can regularly play mixed. I have virtually no interest in living in Vegas full time.

So what are you staying is possible? 2BB/hr?

To me it doesn't make sense to start spending significant time learning other games until:

1. You're very well rolled for 5/T and have stabilized your life finances as well. I want to double the amount I separate from my roll for living expenses and also make my 5/T roll about twice as big to accommodate a deeper buyin.

2. Other games are available that increase your expected hourly at least a few days a week OR significantly increase your ability to game select.

3. You can put the time in to learn and cut your teeth with 0 risk of having to move down at NLHE as a result.

I'm pretty close to all of that for LHE and PLO variants. It's been my plan for a while to learn all of the games because I want to chase bracelets and be able to always play the best game in the room, and that's the best way to accomplish both goals.


Sure, but you're talking about giving up a 5/T hourly for a lot of hours. That's a lot of money you're taking off the table.

I think most NLHE crushers know these concepts.

Likewise, although quartering doesn't apply to NLHE.

So you're telling me I should learn all thw games right now, sacrificing tens of thousands of dollars of expected earnings just in case someday in the future the casino randomly decides to spread a new game? Which would almost certainly be played at significantly lower stakes... That's an interesting plan you've got there.

I mentioned the two reasons I want to learn the other games, but it's a process that I'll start when it makes sense.

Bolded

Damn upswinging putting on a clinic itt.

2p2 Dealer McLovin: Cuse, the action is now on you!

I have no idea if Cuse would be a winning PLO player but I'm not sure it matters. It's simply too difficult to get sufficient hands in PLO or PLO8 without consistent access to online games. I think this holds true (though a bit less so) for other mixed games.

Even games like PLO10 or PLO25 would greatly increase the learning curve for the basics. Put in 15-20k+ hands at these stakes and you will be so far ahead of the average live player. Studying and all the other work is important but there is no substitute for practically applying that knowledge in real money games.

IMO if Cuse doesn't have access to that online volume he would likely blow through significant $$$ trying to get up to speed and that just doesn't make much sense IMO.

That's simply not true. The amount of time/effort it takes to get good enough to hold your own with the best at 5/T is significant, let alone the best in the highest stakes. Playbook poker isn't going to get it done.

The private stuff has to do with a lot of factors, it's not just because of the average players' increased skill. Rich action players don't want to play with silent assassins in hoodies and headphones who only come out of their shell to discuss whether their cold 4bet range should have been merged or polarized, and who refuse to show a hand when the whale bluffs and taps the table and says "You're good," because they want to make him show the bluff.

You're not seeing the big picture of what would happen to the poker economy in that scenario. The crushers would survive and do fine.

I want to make the most money I can now and in the future. I have a plan in place to do so, and taking up mixed games now would be astronomically stupid. I know I have what it takes, I don't really care if you think so or not.

Yeah, but when switching to a new game your opponents have been learning it and figuring it out for XXX hours. There's a learning curve, so you'll be losing at first in most cases even if you're a great thinker/poker player.

You: "Even still, isn't the "freedom" of professional poker the ability to move anywhere?"

Also you: "You're a professional- part of your freaking job is to be in the best markets!"

"Freedom" isn't freedom if I can only live in Vegas or AC. If and when beneficial, I'll consider the trade off. It's not right now.

So you think $80 an hour is more than the best can make at 5/T? Alright, then.

I have a limited number of hours. I can play, I can study the game I primarily play, I can study other games and I can take some downtime. I'm probably not going to cut into my downtime to study for a game I can't even play right now, so it's going to cut into my work time whether it's on or off the felt.

Yup, I'm sure. There have even been concepts I've used/applied all the way back at 1/2 before I knew what they were called.

I'm just saying I'd beat like $2 BB and $5 BB games basically, not saying I'd beat all of the games.

This is a good point, too. The variance in PLO can be nuts and can make it a less desirable game for a pro.

Agree with a lot of this. Especially the last part in regard to mixed games. If I could play small stakes online right now and learn them, I'd probably have done it already just to play like a $1500 NL 2-7 WSOP tourney or a $1500 Razz or something... But unfortunately the current landscape in the US doesn't that possible as far as I know.

For weeks now, I’ve been trying to remember which song on Jiggas first album your thread title is from. I’ve been resisting the temptation to just google it.

“It’s time to come up.....defend my crown etc” is what keeps coming into my head. That or “Coming of Age”....lol. Just wanted to share this.


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I’m scanning the song titles...I’m thinking CAN I LIVE now...


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****...it’s D’Evils..I cannot believe I didn’t remember this. The 2nd verse was classic...the metaphors.


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.

I'm on my phone so I'll reply later to most of it, but $80/hr is 8bb/hr not 24. I don't know where you got 24 from. I think the actual number possible is in between those two. You said 1BB/hr is what could be expected in 40-80 mix.

He's quoting per 100 hands for a live game winrate for some reason.

Oh I see now... Well in that case, yeah I definitely can do better than 8bb/hr or whatever that translates to in bb/100, I'd guess 30-35 hands per hour is pretty standard.

Decide which way you feel about 5/T+ NLHE and stick to it. Is it impossible to beat because it's all people trying hard with some study, or is it easy to turn a smart businessman into a winner? I'm not going to keep getting into the middle of your argument with yourself.

Doubtful, but then again you think someone making 8bb/hr is a crusher. You could turn a break even reg into an 8bb/hr winner in 150 hours probably.

The bolded is just absurd, and is the type of hot take that could only come from someone who doesn't play NLHE at a high level. Also, pro tip: not all games are 9 handed and the crushers love playing short-handed.

False. They hate watching wizards tank on every street way more than they hate losing. Whales are usually rich and successful and don't mind losing - they like the gamble and/or the challenge. They don't like sitting around watching dudes covering their mouth with a hoodie wearing headphones, slipping one ear off on every street to point to the opponent's bet and ask the dealer, "How much is it?" only to retreat back into their headphone and hoodie shell to tank for 60 more seconds before making what ends up being an obvious play by the time the hands are exposed.

They like the gambling, the challenge and the social aspect.

You're too short-sighted to see the big picture, I guess. Let's say your 8bb/hr "crushers" go down to 2-3 bb/hr in that scenario as there are reggy/pro-infested games with only one or two spots, if that. Guess what? That's not a sustainable living. Meanwhile the real crushers will still be making 5-7 bb/hr, and they'll begin really working on targeting the less skilled pros. Eventually, the less skilled pros will either have to drop down in stakes or quit and find a new career.

At that point, the ecosystem will have flushed out a lot of the middling pros and the crushers will remain with the fish/whales. There will be fewer games, but they'll be fine overall for the crushers. Eventually some of the other guys may come back in, but it'll be far more in balance.

You said, "Don't you want to know if you have what it takes?" and that's what I was responding to.

I've explained this time and time again. I'm not going to stop earning a pretty nice hourly to drop way down in stakes and learn mix. When I'm more established financially in the games I'm playing, I can take that time without it hindering my overall financial situation as a poker pro.

And, again, there really aren't mixed games running in my area, so this is all kind of pointless.

I have a great deal of freedom playing poker for a living, and relocating to Vegas is not what I want to do. Period. Maybe if you're someone who can only make 5-7 bb/hr there isn't much freedom, but that's not the situation I'm in.

Addressed above. I make more than 8bb/hr, and have done so at every stake I've played. Also you keep referring to live NLHE as 9-handed. Sometimes games are 9-handed, sometimes they're short-handed, sometimes they're in between.

Yes I do.

Nope.

Lots of hating going on here. Very few put in 35 hours a week on the felt. Playing time + studying time + business planning time (travel, taxes, logging results, etc) + commuting = ~30-40 hours in any given week, depending.

I spend a lot of time thinking about the game, some of which I consider studying and some of which I don't.

I don't have enough money yet for high stakes. I was stuck back down at 1/3 what, 17 months ago? Now I'm at 5/T. That's a pretty good pace, considering I am also covering my expenses. I'm thrilled with how my game has improved in that span, too. We'll see where it goes from here.

I'm not going to go play a pink chip mixed game, 20-40 LHE or 6-12 O8 just to satisfy some people on the Internet who think I'm not a "true pro" until I'm beating those games... And no, I'm not moving across the country either. The availability and quality of games is only one factor in where I choose to live, which I am at times re-evaluating. But things like being closer to my family and/or being in an area of the country I really like are more important to me.

Why? Because they can be, as long as I can keep making a good hourly while making choices based on those factors.

I'm coming up on 4,000 hours of live cash game play in my logs, and I don't know how many hours from back in the day - but probably several hundred - that tell me I'm not deluded.



Thanks for your concern, though. Like I keep saying, I plan to learn mixed games when it makes the most sense for me to do so. That time has not come yet, and it's pretty clear in my mind that it hasn't. I look forward to it someday in the future, though.

lol ok. No amount of logic and reason will convince you. I tried.

It's going to be pretty sad but hilarious coming back to these threads in 5-10 years (if the site even exists)

People have been saying some version of that since, oh I don't know, probably about five years ago...

Chasing a Final Table in the Group of Death

I went into the day Wednesday tantalizingly close to my first WSOP final table in the $1500 NLHE Shootout. I pretty much dominated my first table, taking it down without ever being all-in at risk. I survived a couple bad beats, ran it back up from 16BB, and got heads up and built up a sizable chip lead. We got it in for his last ~15BB with KJ against his A4o, but he held. I was able to grind him back down a bit and got him in with TT against his KQo and managed to hold to advance to Day 2... One table between me and the final table.

One stacked, Group of Death type of table...

1. Bas de Laat ($265K in live earnings, a win in a 1K at the Aussie Millions, bunch of final tables in mid-sized events)
2. Philip Tom ($800K in live earnings, 1 WSOP Bracelet)
3. Martin Jacobson ($16.7M in live earnings, 1 WSOP Bracelet, 9 WSOP Final Tables, 2 WPT Final Tables, 4 EPT Final Tables)
4. Shannon Shorr ($6.3M in live earnings, 1 PCA 10K, 1 EPT 5K, 3 Bellagio Cup Wins, 9 WSOP Final Tables, 4 WPT Final Tables)
5. Tim Burt ($984K in Live Earnings, 3 WSOPc Rings, 1 SHRPO Final Table, 2 WSOP Final Tables)
6. Matthew Wantman ($1M in Live Earnings, 1 WPT Final Table, a Borgata Winter Open Win in a $560 and a Final Table in a $2500 at Foxwoods)
7. Cole Jackson ($486K in live earnings, 1 WSOP Final Table)
8. Zachary Smiley ($710K in Live Earnings, 1 WPT, 2 WPT Final Tables)
9. Justin Liberto ($2.9M in Live Earnings, 1 WSOP Bracelet, 3 WSOPc Rings)
10. Yours Truly ($23K in Live Earnings)

I knew nobody would expect me to prevail, or to even have a shot at that table, but I expected it of myself. I kept thinking about the speech portrayed in the movie Miracle, before the US upset the USSR in the Miracle on Ice. "Great moments are born from great opportunities. That's what you've got here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here tonight."

We all started in the 66K range at 300/600 (100) and I very quickly found myself in a massive pot on the fifth hand, when my 88 flopped a set on 865 in a 4-way 3-bet pot, the turn was a 4, and we hung on calling on the turn and river to take it down against the naked K high flush draw.

I was up over 100K, but I quickly found myself in another massive pot.


Hand No. 1 - JJ Faces Heat

Jackson made it 1,500 in the LJ and I made it 4,500 on the button with JJ. He called.

Flop (10.9K): 643

He checks, I bet 6,500, he raises to 16,800 and I call.

Turn (44.5): 9

He jams for 48K and I tank fold.


Hand No. 2 - Battling With the Champ

I consider Jacobson to be the best post-boom Main Event champ, and I think he's just a beast. That said, I don't lack for confidence and I wasn't going to go out of my way to avoid him, although I did make a couple of strategic adjustments based on our relative positions.

We're at 800/1600 (200) with Jacobson at 60K effective and me covering. We've lost three players, and he's now two to my left.

I'm on the button with T8 and make it 3500, and he defends the BB.

Flop (9,200): KT3

He checks, and I decide to check back. I think bet/folding this hand on the flop is okay, too, for protection reasons. Given the strategy I wanted to play against him, though, I opted to check it back.

Turn (9,200): 8

Martin bets 6K and I call.

River (21,200): 4

He bets 16,000. I think for a bit, debating whether I'm better off defending two pair or defending hands with one diamond blocker... I'm not sure whether his sizing ever includes just a one pair value bet, which impacts that thought process a bit. It's a pretty big sizing for this spot, in my view, but I decide that a call is pretty clearly the best play with T8 here. I realize as I'm calling that about 15-20 people are on the rail watching the former champ playing a big pot with a total unknown.

He flips over KJ and we take it down.


Hand No. 3 - A Critical Flip

I'm second in chips with 147K, and I open UTG 7-handed with AT to 4K at 1,000/2,000 (300). I'm minraising here because Jacobson and one other opponent have optimal re-steal stacks.

De Laat is next to act and calls, he covers me. Another player calls, and it folds to Wantman in the BB. He goes into the tank and rips it in for 34,700.

I tanked and decided to call. We're just flipping a lot and ahead of KQ/KJ and maybe some other suited hands like QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, that can do this. It folds around and he shows 77.

We're flipping for about an 80K pot, and if I win I'm going to be the chip leader with about 96BB, and about 30% of the chips in play 6-handed.

Flop: QJ4

Turn: Brick

River: Brick

That knocks me down to 112,000, but it's still plenty. Jacobson goes out, and we're down to 6. I dwindle a bit in chips, then get a cold 4b through with AK and chip back up to 137K at 1200/2400. At this point I'm really loving my chances, as I feel like I'm playing better than anyone who's left at the table, and I have a live read on one of the opponents who I'm hoping to get heads up with. We get down to four players and I'm down to 90K at 2K/4K, but I still haven't been all-in at risk in either table so far... I feel like I'm in control of my game, and I still like my chances although I'm going to need to make some hands or get some spots.

I jam pocket threes over a button open, and De Laat cold calls from the BB with AJo. We're all-in at risk for the first time, and we manage to hold the 3's to double up and get back in business.


Hand No. 4 - A Key 4-Handed Spot

I wasn't taking as many notes on hands when we got short-handed, so I'm reconstructing this as best I can. The blinds were at 2K/4K (500)

I open QJo in the CO, I'd imagine I went to 9K, and Smiley defends his BB.

Flop (22K): JT4r

He checks, I bet - I think around 12K, and he calls.

Turn (46K): 9x

He checks, I tank and check back.

River (46K): Ax

He bets 21K and I go into the tank. I'd expect KQ and AJ to often 3-bet pre and/or check-raise the flop. I'd also expect TT to 3bet pre, JT to raise the flop some of the time and 44 to raise the flop some of the time. I could see him having KJ, Q8, T9, J9, AT, A4, some ace high floats, and maybe some 78 - especially with a backdoor flush draw.

He could also be turning Q9 or 98 into a bluff, a K high float into a bluff, or an underpair into a bluff... I'm also pretty high up in my range, and I block a couple straights, so I elect to call. He turns over J9 and we lose a key pot to a rough turn and then a bricked redraw. I'm glad I checked the turn, though, because he probably would have check-raised me and we might have gotten it in.

Shortly thereafter, we lost another player and I was left with 112K going to dinner break, set to return and battle three-handed.


Quick Fireworks After Dinner

Unfortunately, the first two pots I played after dinner did not go my way with some whiffed flops and bet/folds or folded blinds, and I was down to 14BB. I looked at KQ on the button and ripped it in. The BB snap called with AKo, and we couldn't find any help, going out in third...

It was a great run, officially I finished 27th out of 908, but since there aren't any Day 2 pay jumps, it was a relatively small cash. Never the less, it was a great experience and took me from believing I could hang with some of the best in tournament poker to knowing I can do so, with an experience to prove it.

That said, being two opponents away from a trip to a final table at the WSOP is disappointing when it doesn't work out... Hopefully I can get another opportunity before the series is over!

You are corny as hell


Glgl w the #bracelethunting

Miracle is a fantastic movie.

I remember renting it from the now busto Blockbuster Video.

It was quite the theatrical treat.

I also heard somewhere that it's based on a true story.

Go get em cuse!

Sometimes, yup. Just gotta embrace it.


Thanks!

- still not able to take an ounce of critcism
- still not grinding full-time hours

Upswinging drops real knowledge/is one of the few posters on this site that 'gets' live poker that isn't DGAF or Sean Snyder, and I think you misinterpreted him genuinely trying to help you and pass on his wisdom as a condescending attack on the path you've chosen.

I agree with most of his points, it's not that crazy prescient to realize NL cash is rapidly losing viability everywhere but the most niche/hidden of markets (I would go so far as to say that in 2018 unless you live in exactly Detroit or Rhode Island there's literally nowhere else on the east coast that the best players can consistently grind out 100k a year or more playing 5/10 while running even). You can deny that however much you want but I'm not warning you of this because I want to set myself up to crow 'I told you so' years from now but because it causes me genuine anguish to see short-sighted pros essentially being the poker equivalent of a climate change denier.

I think part of what it is that tilted upswinging so much is how authoritatively you speak on things and how bluntly you shoot down/deny any rebuttals when from his perspective you've accomplished so little in such a long period of time. You probably think he's wrong and that you've accomplished plenty in that time and deserve the right to be proud of what you've done. It doesn't really matter who's right between the two of you, but I do think it's worth examining why exactly you get so much more contempt than pretty much any other blog on this subforum without just dismissing it as 'trolls'.

What’s in Rhode Island?

Hi Upswinging. Most of your points were terrible. I have no clue who Sean Snyder is but DGAF is just another POS poker pro in my book (who takes criticism/disagreement way worse than OP).