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Old 01-04-2012, 05:39 PM   #1
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$200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Hey guys been pretty bored with my life lately and havn't being doing much
so decided to set myself a pretty insane challenge.

As the title says I'm going to deposit $200 and start playing 10nl 6 max on February the 1st.
And attempt to have $10,000 by July 1st. And from July - August I'm going to attempt a $10k month.

For alot of you this is probably an easy task but I don't have an long history in online poker (Perhaps 6 months) and I was playing mostly recreational and never too serious. That said I do consider myself a far above average player and I think I can achieve this if I can maintain motivation and stay focused (hopefully this blog will help with that).

I think setting big challenges for yourself is the fastest way to improve in any field and an excellent way to discipline yourself.

The plan for this January is to eat every thread of every forum and watch as much DC 6 max videos as possible and prepare myself for the most mentally straining 6 months thus far in my life.

** If interest is shown I can post all the estimation math I've done to show people how I plan to do this challenge.**
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Old 01-04-2012, 05:42 PM   #2
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Oh and I'll be 4 tabling and playing about 80k hands a month of only 6 max .

Will do HH's and post everything I've learned throughout this challenge if that helps peak interest.
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Old 01-04-2012, 05:53 PM   #3
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

This sounds like an interesting goal. I will certainly be following

How many hours a day will you be dedicating to poker? And what site do you intend to play?

Finally, how were your results in the 6 months of your online poker career?
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:00 PM   #4
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

I'm working part time so the days I have off about 7-8 hours with some HH reviews and the days I am working about 3-4. Aiming for 30 a week.

My history is about 3k in live in 10-70 people tournaments around my town. Then when I started online I deposited around $500 dollars which I lost due to just playing for fun doing like $60 husngs and playing 100nl (It was once $2.5k) when I get bored of playing properly.

When I have played 10-50nl seriously 4-9 tabling I usually have maintained an average of 15bb/100.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:01 PM   #5
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Ok, post the math I guess.

Do you have any giraffes? What results have you had in the past? Why do you consider yourself a far above average player?

And fwiw, no, this is not an "easy task for alot of people", this is one hell of a challenge

Edit: ^ posted at same time, gl.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:01 PM   #6
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

I know many will think its impossible to maintain a high winrate based on my sample size but I'm devouring everything on deucescracked and twoplustwo atm and think I can get myself to the level of atleast a decent reg by 1st Feb if I'm not already at it.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:07 PM   #7
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Quote:
Originally Posted by FTSITTTD View Post
Ok, post the math I guess.

Do you have any giraffes? What results have you had in the past? Why do you consider yourself a far above average player?

And fwiw, no, this is not an "easy task for alot of people", this is one hell of a challenge

Not going to estimate exactly the amount of days each stake move up will take.

Also as you can see in this estimation out of the 300kish hands I expect to play I've accounted 100k of these to dealing with downswings and variance.

If poker was without Variance my goal would be achieved in 200k hands at my expected winrate.

Also if I have not accounted for enough variance I can easily play an additional 170k hands in my 6 month time frame.

MATH
************************************************** ******
10nl - 400nl in 5 Months ($200 - $10,000)

Starting Bankroll = $200
Moving up stakes when have 25 BI's
Moving back down when drop under 20 BI's

80k hands per month
AVG = 20k per week
= 2857k per day

** Taking 10k hands for downswing period or breakeven patches and another 10k
hands for making up for money lost during the downswing**

*So adding 20k hands to every number of hands to the
the number of hands it will actually take at 'my hoping
to achieve bb/100 rate'.*


---------------------------------------------
1st February = $200
*10nl*
Hoping to achieve 10bb/100 = $1/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 25nl($500) = 50k
Amount needed to be made = $300
---------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------
Sometime in February = $500
*25nl*
Hoping to acheive 8bb/100 = 2$/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 50nl($1250) = 57.5k
Amount needed to be made = $750
----------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------
Sometime in March = $1250
*50nl*
Hoping to achieve 6bb/100 = $3/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 100nl($2500) = 61.5k
Amount needed to be made = $1250
----------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------
Sometime in April = $2500$
*100nl*
Hoping to acheive 5bb/100 = $5/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 200nl($5000) = 70k
Amount needed to be made = $2500
---------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------
Sometime in May = $5000
*200nl*
Hoping to acheive 5bb/100 = $10/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 400nl($10,000) = 70k
Amount needed to be made = $5000
----------------------------------------------

Estimated Date of completion = July 1st
(I estimate I will reach $10,000 somewhere in the
middle of june but I'm giving myself some wiggle
room with the completion date).

Bankroll June 1st = $10,000

Total hands = 309,000

AVG hands per month = 77,250

AVG days taken to move up stake = 24.2

************************************************** *****
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:08 PM   #8
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Also as you can see that is just 200-10k instead of 20k as stated in the title.

Basicly if I achieve this goal I'll be attempting a 10k week from July-August putting in massive volume.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:16 PM   #9
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

this christmas break i was playing 50nl played 40k hands and had a 4.04bb/100 in which i would consider good play and a mix of run well (not super hot) but ran nice.

for you to do this you have to run hotter than the sun. these winrates are very possibly at the lower stakes, like 10-25NL maybe at 50NL you could do that. but at the higer stakes like 200NL seems near impossible.

Anyway, hope you can do it! glhf
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:24 PM   #10
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

If only it were that simple. These type of mathematical predictions cant really be trusted until you know whether you are able to achieve the bb/100 you are predicting (which you prob cant) and even then variance will play such a huge roll.

Im not flaming op, its just these type of challenges are doomed from the off as the pressure you apply to yourself will only hinder your progress.

It takes people a long long time to grind from 10nl-400nl, very few do it in the time frame you are suggesting and even then those who have probably had alot more experience. Do you have HEM or PT?
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:29 PM   #11
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Quote:
Originally Posted by justfoldpleaseok View Post
this christmas break i was playing 50nl played 40k hands and had a 4.04bb/100 in which i would consider good play and a mix of run well (not super hot) but ran nice.

for you to do this you have to run hotter than the sun. these winrates are very possibly at the lower stakes, like 10-25NL maybe at 50NL you could do that. but at the higer stakes like 200NL seems near impossible.

Anyway, hope you can do it! glhf
I think you might be thinking of BB/100 (Big Bets), Instead of bb/100 (big blinds).
5bb/100 is perfectly sustainable for solid regs at 200nl that know what they are doing.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:31 PM   #12
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Quote:
Originally Posted by FTSITTTD View Post

It takes people a long long time to grind from 10nl-400nl, very few do it in the time frame you are suggesting and even then those who have probably had alot more experience.
This is the perfect kind of thing to motivate me .
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:32 PM   #13
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Yeah I recently got HEM. Will be tracking my progress and posting graphs.
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:34 PM   #14
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

So your playing limit? I have got any idea about limit if that is the case.

Anyways I def don't want to demotivate you, so glglglglglglgl and gogogogogogo
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Old 01-04-2012, 06:37 PM   #15
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Re: $200 to $20,000 in 6 months. (10-400nl)

Quote:
Originally Posted by FTSITTTD View Post
So your playing limit? I have got any idea about limit if that is the case.

Anyways I def don't want to demotivate you, so glglglglglglgl and gogogogogogo
No it's no limit :P. What did I say to make it sound like it was limit?.
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