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150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl 150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl

02-15-2014 , 01:49 PM
I had one more hand on Bovada that hasn't imported yet but was a bit tricky.

Villain is 31/27 over 80 hands. MP opens to 3x I flat AJdd from the BB. Flop is T86dd. I lead for 2/3ish, he raises to a bit less than 3x and I call. Turn Ao. He barrels for about 2/3 and I call. River 2o and he jams for 55%ish pot.

This is a bit of a problem spot for me. Villain appears to be a relatively aggro reg that could potentially bluff raise flop but he also has a fair amount of value in his range. Hands like AT/T8s/JJ-AA/sets/big FDs can all potentially raise flop for value. His bluffs that make the most sense would be hands like QJ/J9 maybe even a hand like 8x/6x/77. On turn he may choose to barrel some hands like JJ-KK again for value and plan on checking back river. He can obviously also continue barreling his bluffs trying to rep the NFD. On river I doubt that he would value jam any 1 pair hands but would definitely jam any 2 pair+ for value but I'm unsure if the average bovada reg, even once that appears this aggro over the small sample will follow through with enough bluffs to make it a call.

I ended up folding and feeling really dirty about it bc I'm towards the top of my range (though I have a few 2 pair and sets left in my range for playing this way but not many). Looking back at it I think it's just a little too high up in my range to be folding. Luckily its bovada and I get to see his hole cards tomorrow when I download the hands.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-15-2014 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skraper
http://weaktight.com/6488878
This hand looks pretty standard but villain is a very passive fish and generally when I see this line from his player type (c/c flop, and lead river for pot after turn checks through and a big card hits the river) its very very strong. If he had lead for any more normal size I think its a very clear call. But I should just fold when he lead pot. This is a mistake I made primarily because I was multitabling and had several hands going at once and I acting too quickly. Small mental mistake here.

http://weaktight.com/6488890
Villain in this hand is a very good, but not overly aggressive regular. I think my hand is probably too strong to put in my check twice range. Given that we are 200bb deep and I expect him to flat preflop extremely wide my preflop 3betting range is going to be kind of linear value. I think I'm better off using a hand like TT/JJ or maybe QJ for this line as they miss less value by not betting turn. If we were 100bb deep I'd have a lot more bluffs in my range preflop so I could have some hands like 7x/4x or even much weaker Qx for this line that would work better for this line (tho I may bet my 7x on the flop) and wouldn't have QJ or probablly even TT

http://weaktight.com/6488901
This preflop peel is a bit loose but villain is the same reg from the AQ hand above and he has been 3betting me a lot more than his overall 3b over a decent enough sample that I'm relatively confident its not just variance so I've started to open up my flatting range IP so as not to get exploited. I haven't opened up THAT much as I don't think he is getting too far out of line but 66 is probably on the edge of what I might defend in this situation against him. It might be a tad too wide tho. This particular villain has a relatively well balanced checking range on the flop (although its possible its unbalanced towards SD value and not very many give ups, I'd have to look into our history with more detail to know for sure). When he does check this flop I think that the types of hands that my hand needs protection are pretty unlikely to c/f. His big Ax are almost certainly c/c, if he chose to check a gutter its certainly c/r or c/c so betting to make him fold his high equity air probably won't work out that well. He potentially could be giving up with some smaller Ax or Qx preflop bluffs so betting to make those fold is reasonable. But he can also be checking with a hand like 9x or Kx. So overall I think I'm better off checking and taking a turn IP. On this turn I think its possible that he is stabbing with some of his air, tho he can still have 9x+, but calling seems correct. On the river when he checks I think he very rarely has anything better than the board. Pot is 100ish and we have 150 behind and its just a really good overbet shove spot. He is just very unlikely to have any hand that can easily call (TT+) and will be calling to chop the vast majority of the time in a spot where I can very clearly have Kx. Definitely a missed opportunity here.
all those seem really stnd wp. i have no idea how villian doesnt bomb/overbet river hand 3, his range is inherently stronger than yours by river, would def note. you rep literally 0 combos when u overbet river in hand 3(the super rare and oddly/poorly played Kx i guess) and the better villian is the more i dislike it.
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02-15-2014 , 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shipit2kg
all those seem really stnd wp. i have no idea how villian doesnt bomb/overbet river hand 3, his range is inherently stronger than yours by river, would def note. you rep literally 0 combos when u overbet river in hand 3(the super rare and oddly/poorly played Kx i guess) and the better villian is the more i dislike it.
I think i would check back some Kx otf. Not many, but a few. Betting say KJ/KQ and checking something like K8s or maybe KT.

I looked thru another few hands in similarish spots against this villain and he is just not attacking these spots at all.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-15-2014 , 02:51 PM
ya ur right, that sounds about right, think KT is close tho, he 3bet from sb right? anyway keep it up man. hit me on skype sometime. later
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-15-2014 , 03:33 PM
have you looked at your lifetime call 3bet with pp in pos? Pretty sure for most people its +ev to call pp's 100%.

So easy to get any reg to put a lot of money everytime you hit.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-15-2014 , 05:32 PM
You can see all the hole cards in hh's you get from Bovada? How do you get them? I'd imagine you could improve a ton at hand reading with them?
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-16-2014 , 07:17 AM
Really liking the hand histories! Keep them coming and good luck with your goals!
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-17-2014 , 12:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ...|...
have you looked at your lifetime call 3bet with pp in pos? Pretty sure for most people its +ev to call pp's 100%.

So easy to get any reg to put a lot of money everytime you hit.
My sample would be skewed as I generally fold the smaller pairs unless it looks like a particularly good spot.
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02-17-2014 , 02:59 AM
Great thread, love the way you make your updates. Will follow from now on, good luck!
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-17-2014 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skraper
I ended up folding and feeling really dirty about it bc I'm towards the top of my range (though I have a few 2 pair and sets left in my range for playing this way but not many). Looking back at it I think it's just a little too high up in my range to be folding. Luckily its bovada and I get to see his hole cards tomorrow when I download the hands.
Villain did end up having T6s for 2 pair. I'm not sure that this makes my fold correct but it definitely means he has a few more 2 pairs in his range than I would have originally thought. Probably also means a few more gutshots on the flop that can potentially barrel off, but also means he can have some more flushes.

I think overall its still a call, but nice to see that I was correct in the Sklansky sense.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-19-2014 , 06:30 AM
Sickkk! With ur skill and edge I'd probably be putting in 100k+ hands/month tho.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-19-2014 , 07:39 PM
Yea. My volume is always lacking, even when I try to push it. I suspect my edge is quite a bit lower when I'm putting in more hours (even if its at fewer tables). To reach 100k hands a month I'd likely sacrifice a few bb/100 in winrate. I also spent a significant amount of time doing other things that are still 'work' (mostly having to do with the stable) so I really doubt I could hit 100k hands in a month without really hating life. But I still think I can consistently get 50k hands a month with proper time management and motivation.

Last edited by skraper; 02-19-2014 at 07:48 PM.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-20-2014 , 06:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by busate
Sickkk! With ur skill and edge I'd probably be putting in 100k+ hands/month tho.
They are sick results, but to be fair I don't think anyone is running 40bb/100 over large samples.

OP is definently a beast though. GL!
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-20-2014 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacehippie
They are sick results, but to be fair I don't think anyone is running 40bb/100 over large samples.

OP is definently a beast though. GL!
LOL. Clearly no one beats the game for that winrate. I would be very happy with a 4bb/100 winrate long term
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-20-2014 , 09:02 PM
Out of Curiosity, would you mind sharing your Bovada winrate? Games are ridiculously soft there but I have yet to know someone who has put in a ton of hands.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-21-2014 , 12:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFunBegins
Out of Curiosity, would you mind sharing your Bovada winrate? Games are ridiculously soft there but I have yet to know someone who has put in a ton of hands.
7bb/100 without 1knl included. Still a net loser at 1knl there. 5bb/100 with 1knl
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-21-2014 , 12:18 AM


My overall graph for 1knl. 7 buy ins under ev, but over ev at 2/4 and 3/6 lately so I can't complain much.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-22-2014 , 02:50 AM
Gonna struggle with the 50k this month Sean.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-22-2014 , 03:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samcx
Gonna struggle with the 50k this month Sean.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-22-2014 , 03:23 AM
In the K9s vs JJ hand on pg 2 why doesn't your range include the FD? The reason he didn't vb on river
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-22-2014 , 03:37 AM
Best of luck man, you got this.
150k in 2014 - Beating Tilt (Again) and Crushing 1000nl Quote
02-22-2014 , 03:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquidd14
In the K9s vs JJ hand on pg 2 why doesn't your range include the FD? The reason he didn't vb on river
I'm sure thats why he chose not to vbet. But i certainly don't have enough flushes in my range to make checking better than value shoving and its not really close at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by i<3fishes
Best of luck man, you got this.
Thanks buddy
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02-22-2014 , 08:14 AM
Keep at it gl gl with all your goals, really good read so far.
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