Disclaimer - I have followed this thread on and off for years and have talked to KP on Skype at times. I have always been supportive yet honest with KP, so while some of the things in this post may sound harsh, I believe that they're honest and fair, with no personal malice towards him.
Here is my take on things.....
- First of all, my advice to
anybody who is not currently beating the games, but is expressing an interest to learn, improve and become professional/semipro, would be the following..... Don't bother. Unless you live in an underdeveloped, inexpensive country, it is simply not going to be possible (except for a select few) to make reasonable money out of online poker at some point in the immediate future (likely between 1-3 years). Nearly all of the current full-time pros that I know are already planning their exit strategy. It seems strange that at this point in time, someone from the UK who already has a solid career is attempting to make it in the poker world, especially after such a long record of failure at the lowest levels.
Poker is a dying industry, mainly for three reasons:
1) The amount of recreational money coming into the game is declining dramatically - there is nothing you can do about this, it's gonna continue to happen and potential profits will be lowered all round
2) The general trend is for sites to increase the cost of playing, leading to reduced profits all round - there is nothing you can do about this, it's gonna continue to happen and potential profits will be lowered all round
3) The standard of the games is increasing all the time, and this rise shows no sign of slowing, especially with the recent introduction of solver software - the way of trying to conquer this issue is by always working hard enough to stay ahead of the curve, which leads me onto my second point......
- You are so unbelievably behind the curve, and I believe that you don't realise just how far behind it you are. It is clear from the way you talk about strategy in this thread, and from the times I've chatted to you on Skype, that you are operating and thinking somewhere around the level of a mediocre small/micro reg from 2009. Despite repeated claims that you've improved as a player, it's quite obvious from your current situation that you haven't improved, or at least not relative to the curve. Your attempts to analyse your play and improve your strategy also seem fairly outdated/simple which doesn't bode well for future improvement (the recent ftcb fiasco demonstrates this in many ways).
- Failure is a large part of success, however knowing how to deal with failure is crucial. Failure is great in lots of cases because it gives you an opportunity to see your mistakes, learn from them then go away and improve, and come back stronger. However you seem to have not done this in the world of poker, at all. You have failed continually and have seemingly never come back stronger. Accepting that you suck at something, realising your chance of success is minimal/non-existent and consequently quitting to move on to something new is not necessarily a weak thing to do, and does not brand you as a failure. In fact, realising that you're in a bad situation, drawing a line under it and moving onto fresh pastures can often be the most successful option.
IMHO I think you have got to the point where you are wasting your time. You are ploughing so much time and effort into a venture that you have shown no aptitude for, in a field that is on the road to complete decline. The only conceivable situation in which I could see it being worth continuing is if, like Husker, you treat the game as a bit of fun and a mental exercise. If you are doing it purely for the goal of making money/turning pro/being a stubborn bastard that wants to prove something, then I would have to say the time has come to just withdraw your roll, and go find something more fulfilling/productive/fun to do (eg expand your martial arts game or something).
That said, if you do decide to continue, I wish you all the best and will still follow along. I'm not sure why you didn't take me up on it last time, but the offer to look over a sample of your hands still stands (fwiw I have ~8bb/100 over my last 3-400k hands at 100nl, fr/6m+hu on Stars, so I'm sure I can help out somewhat)