JUNE Recap

Avg. Hours: 38.7 -2.5
Tot. Volume: 1,528 +218

BR Start: $1,016.58
BR End: $1,890.16
WD: $281.35
Profit: + $1,154.93 +69.26

ABI: $15.98 +8.50
ROI: 4.73% -6.35
Hourly: $7.46 +0.87

Real-World Hourly: $8.95

I just barely made my monthly goal for June. Even though I doubled the ABI, my hourly barely increased. I didn’t run as well as I did in May, when I started hot out of the gates. I really needed it in order to repair my damaged confidence, from when I was run over in the Live arena.

The only thing I was disappointed in this month was the volume. It was more so affected by travel and software issues than it was work-ethic. To start the month I traveled back home, with a pit stop at my cousin’s graduation party. Then in the middle of June, Ignition temporarily removed double-up’s. I also went out of state to watch my cousin play in a high-school State Championship baseball game.

I am going to crush it in July with volume, hopefully the money will follow the hard work.

#DoWork


June Goal: $800/$873.58

Asia Goal: $4,000/46.6%

Current Pace: $4,655.63

SNG WEEK 9

Hours: 49.00
Volume: 358

BR Start: $1,890.16
BR End: $1,936.96
WD: $296.00
Profit: + $403.30

ABI: $16.58
ROI: 6.79%
Hourly: $8.23

Thank you Photobucket for removing all of my pics in this thread. Do you really think normal people are going to start paying $400/yr to continue to use your site?!?!?

https://www.pcmag.com/news/354711/ph...s-the-internet

SNG WEEK 10

Hours: 57.08
Volume: 435

BR Start: $1,936.96
BR End: $2,477.79
WD: $500.00
Profit: + $1,150.80

ABI: $30.20
ROI: 8.76%
Hourly: $20.16

Moving up to $52 double-ups.

I’m excited to see what this does for my hourly, the first week was a good sign. Other than binking a 2k tourney score, this was my all-time best week of online poker. Was super impressed with the hours, not sure i’ll be able to keep going at this rate without breaks.

Withdrew money to get a new passport. Thought it would be smart to get the process rolling.

Profitability Diagnosis

Game: $10.50 Hyper Turbo (500 chips)

Volume: 502

ROI: 1.42%

Profit: $75

ITM: 35.86%

1st: 48.33%

Long-Term ROI: 5.8% - -3.0% (95% likelihood)

Games/hr: 18.64 (avg. game lasts ~12 minutes, play x4 at a time)

Hourly: $2.78
Real-World Hourly: $3.34

The first 500 games at this level went much worse than the $5-level; where the hourly was almost x3 times higher despite half the stakes. I am certain the cause is simply run-bad, especially during the heads-up shove-feast, and running above-expectation in the other. I would be willing to bet a hefty sum that at the 1,000-game mark, my ROI will be closer to the higher-end of the possible range (so more like a $6-$8 hourly).

Thread is soooo boring, something to look forward too...

Profitability Diagnosis

Game: $5.25 Hyper Turbo (500 chips)

Volume: 1,000

ROI: 11.06%

Profit: $580.50

ITM: 38.30%

1st: 52.48%

Long-Term ROI: 14.2% - 8.0% (w/ 95% confidence)

Games/hr: 18.04 (avg. game lasts ~12 minutes, play x4 at a time)

Taxed-Hourly: $12.57
Hourly: $10.47

Compared to the first 500 games my ITM is nearly identical, and as suspected I ran better heads-up.

This is my bread-and-butter game. Even though it is a high-variance format, on a month-to-month basis it does fetch me a steady stream of income. The best part is this game only requires a $350 bankroll! I love knowing for certain that I have a safety-net between me and a hard-day's work. Hee-he-he-he-he….

SNG WEEK 11

Hours: 48.33
Volume: 320

BR Start: $2,477.79
BR End: $3,509.05
Profit: + $814.95

ABI: $41.23
ROI: 6.18%
Hourly: $16.86

Back-to-back record-breaking weeks! Too bad I already know what happens next.

The weekly profit will not match the current bankroll number bc I started to add MTT’s on a second monitor in July. I will only be including MTT’s in the monthly summary bc the volume is too minor and sporadic for me to care about on a weekly-basis.

I was waiting to mix in MTT’s once I could start playing at a minimum the $10+ $5k guarantees and up. To me, beating 400+ runners for only a few hundred bucks is a giant waste of luck.

Profitability Diagnosis

Game: $21.00 Double-Up

Volume: 506

ROI: 2.77%

Profit: $294.00

ITM: 53.95%

Long-Term ROI: 7.2% - -1.4% (w/ 95% confidence)

Games/hr: 7.36 (avg. game lasts ~30 minutes, play x4 at a time)

Taxed-Hourly: $5.13
Hourly: $4.28

NO COMMENT until 1k games.

Photobucket sucks so badly it is must close to being a full on scam.

50/50’s (the Red-Headed Step-Child of Poker)

Double-Up-or-Nothings bear in no way, shape or form a resemblance to conventional poker. There are virtually no skills necessary, other than having the discipline to select the auto-fold box. There is a paradox in that it can be a game of skill with near zero +EV decisions to make, outside of holding AA pre-flop in the early-stages or the nuts post-flop.

Our significant skill advantage comes from this being a favorite game of the fish (Ignition has claimed that this is their most popular SNG format). Their mistakes are just so atrociously bad, like literally worse than calling with 72o when your opponent shows you his Aces first, that they more than make-up for the -EV decisions we are forced to inevitably make with a short-stack very close to being blinded-out.

Story-Time at Wal-Mart

The fact that the following story has been my only noteworthy-one to share so far, shows how boring this summer has actually been. Sleep…Poker...Eat...Repeat…

Coming back from an appointment on the other side of the city, I stop at Wal-Mart. I love getting their Plate-Lunches from the hot-deli (most locations have this). Everyplace is a little different but generally you get a chicken option (wings, boneless or strips) plus two-sides (potato wedges, mac & cheese, mashed potatoes w/ gravy, jalapeno poppers, cheese sticks, etc.) for $4.99. I think it is a really good deal, and down south they even threw in a dinner-roll.

I also loved how they had collard greens as a side option down there too. When you hang around black folks long enough, inevitably you will get hooked on coloreds (inside-joke). Seriously them greens are sooooo good when they are cooked right.

What goes down as I am waiting in line at the deli, is officially my strangest experience at a Wal-Mart; which is saying a lot. First, an Asian man and his kid get like right on top of me in line with no considerations for personal space (I have read this is standard in Asia, oh boy). While he is waiting, the guy picks up and tears open a sealed pack of fried chicken. He takes out two wings, gives one to his son and puts it back on the shelf. I don’t believe he ended up paying either.

Now the next thing to happen was so gross. There was this ******ed kid (I mean no offense, I just like how the word sounds) running around the bakery and deli. For whatever reason he was all excited about the food (who am I kidding, on the inside I was doing the same thing as him). I saw that he really liked the macaroni-salad, when he walked right up to the glass and put his mouth on it. I had first noticed him as he tried to fit through the six-inch space between me and the deli-counter, before his mom told him to go behind.

Later on as the worker was getting my food, this bugger popped up out of nowhere again, right up on me. He had hit like a bass on a lure when my mac & cheese was being scooped up. Damn did that boy like his macaroni. So his mom pulls him back from the counter, telling him “that is not yours”. Well he had started drooling big-time, and as he comes back, a long, thick-strand of drool breaks off on my shoulder. If it weren’t so comical, I would have been super grossed-out.

SNG WEEK 12

Hours: 63.33
Volume: 458

BR Start: $3,509.05
BR End: $1,898.10
WD: $1,000
Profit: - $849.65

ABI: $47.11
ROI: - 3.94%
Hourly: - $13.42

Decided to start moving most of my bankroll off the site and lock-it-up. Ignition seemed to disagree with that idea. What a coincidence that after a big withdrawal, I go on an 18 buy-in downswing. I don’t wanna be another cash-out curse guy but really odd timing. I was due for some run-bad so it shouldn’t be too big of a surprise.

Loving the 60+ hour week.

I think that the proper thing would have been to grandfather in all the outstanding links, otherwise to me it comes off as blackmail.

Ignition updated their software again, and I was HUD-less for a week. I felt so bare without it. I don’t really need one for hypers, but it is useful in a 50/50 to know who is incapable of 3-betting w/o QQ+, AK.

To mix it up yesterday, I felt like experimenting with some cash-game ranges. I have not played online cash in a year and I must have gotten a lot better or the pool got worse. Even with that, I don’t know how anyone regs cash on this site. Grinding SNG, I encounter minor glitches (since the update, tables don’t load right away) but nothing bad enough to cost me money on a daily-basis. Well, in a two-hour session I disconnected in 4 pots, one a 3-bet and one a 4-bet. These DC’s must kill a good portion of any attainable win-rates.

I really hate Ignition, they stole $50 from me a couple weeks ago too. They seem to be getting worse and worse, and it sucks bc the player pool was always so soft. Traffic also appears to be declining, so I am glad I have an exit-plan.

July MTT

Volume: 111
ABI: $13.22

Big Scores:
1/??? $571.90 $11 BI
3/??? $462.80 $44 BI
4/485 $400.00 $11 BI

Profit: + $257.54

MTT Totals

Volume: 125
ITM: 12.00%
ROI: 2.11%

Profit: + $39.44

JULY Recap

Avg. Hours: 54.4 +15.7
Tot. Volume: 1,571 +43

BR Start: $1,890.16
BR End: $2,898.10
WD: $736.00
Profit: + $1,519.40 +364.47

ABI: $34.27 +18.29
ROI: 2.82% -1.91

Taxed-Hourly: $8.38
Hourly: $6.98 -0.48


July Goal: $800/$1,007.94

Asia Goal: $4,000/72.5%

Current Pace: $4,830.17


There was a correlation in the ABI doubling, yet the ROI decreasing by 50%. I made up for it with a strong month of volume. 50+ hours per week is now my golden standard.

I have taken forever to post my July results bc it turned out to be a mirage. Stormy waters ahead…...

Profitability Diagnosis

Game: $1.05 Hyper (500 chips)

Volume: 500

ROI: 15.77%

Profit: $82.80

ITM: 40.40%

1st: 50.50%

Long-Term ROI: 20.2% to 11.4% (w/ 95% confidence)

Games/hr: 19.72 (avg. game lasts ~11 minutes, play x4 at a time)

Taxed-Hourly: $3.92
Hourly: $3.27


To punish Ignition (who am I kidding, really just myself) for me running like ****, I started playing the $1-level again to reach 500 games. I want to have at least 500 on every level for reference-sake.

The $1 player-pool is LOL. Even running horrifically heads-up I still managed a 15% ROI. An $80 profit after 500 games is so depressing, I would recommend to not even waste your time and just start out at $5.

Now if I could get a stable of ten monkeys playing for me then we might have something.


TL-DR: This level is a joke, just skip it.

Got money on the fight tonight. The Mayweather money-line should be -4000 instead of -400. It is crazy how the line keeps dropping as the fish money comes rolling in on the underdog. This fight is probably the surest sports bet of the century.


MoneyWeather WIN $284/$69

Would have liked to have been able to free up $1k. Too bad I'm soo f***ing poor!

Floyd KO, TKO, DQ $15/$12

You want to be betting the ML, as we all know he doesn't KO. But if there was a time, this is it. If DQ hadn't been included, I would have passed.

Either fighter WIN in round 7-9 $5/$17

Total fish bet, meh.

SNG WEEK 13

Hours: 42.84
Volume: 346

BR Start: $2,648.10
BR End: $1,796.30
WD: $250
Profit: - $871.63

ABI: $14.33
ROI: - 17.58%
Hourly: - $20.35

YUCK!!!!

I lost $1k in the first two days, and $1.2k in the previous two days from last week. I had been running way-above-expectation at the $50-levels, so I was due to come back down to reality. I also got burnt by starting to play $100 double-ups too early.

For the rest of this week I dropped down to the lowest stakes in order to stop the bleeding. It gets old real quick, but if you want a pick-me-up play $1 & $5 SNG’s.

Dreams Dashed

These last couple weeks were among the most stressful of my life. I have been trying so damn hard to get out of the gutter this summer, that to see failure on the horizon, is SOUL-CRUSHING. I was so close, yet now so far away.

I had begun to fool myself into believing I was the Juggernaut of Ignition. I knew I was on a heater, yet I was not mentally-prepared for it to end. A long break-even stretch would have been fine but a sick downswing, just like during my Jacksonville-run, humorously had completely ceased to be a potential outcome. Oh, how cruelly the math inevitably turned on me; AK vs. A6 became a standard 60/40 proposition, QJ vs. 85 is now a coin-flip and 55 vs. K7 a 3-to-2 underdog.

For several dark nights I went to sleep thinking my world is crashing down upon me, leaving nothing left to dream for. But now I have accepted defeat, and it is easy to see that all I have to do is make adjustments to my plan.

So what if I get there smack dab in the middle of high-season and have to pay a little more in rent. The fall in the Midwest is very pleasant. Not-too-cool, not-too-hot. There is always a crisp breeze and the changing colors of the leaves. I can watch more of my favorite team play football (I doubt The Ohio State Buckeyes are on the Asian Sports Network too often).

Maybe if I had flown over in September, my flight does a Lost Flight 815. I have to admit that would be kind of cool, even though I never did clearly figure out what was going on in that show.


EDITOR’S NOTE: The up-beat last few paragraphs are BS, a week later and I am still about as miserable as I have ever been in my short, entitled life. I ****ing LOVE poker!!

2017 Heisman Picks

1. J.T. Barrett QB/Ohio St. +1000

It is no coincidence that my top Heisman pick is the quarterback of my top championship pick. Generally the Heisman winner plays QB (14/17 since 2000) for a playoff team (12/17).

JT’s best Heisman campaign came in 2014 as a freshman. He regressed statistically the following two-years due to bad offensive coaching and play-calling. With a new offensive-coordinator, he will once again put up Heisman-worthy stats.

2. Deondre Francois QB/Florida St. +1800

If FSU beats Alabama on Saturday, Francois will shoot up the charts. Before that happens is the time to buy. Right now this is great value for a likely playoff QB.

I am passing on greater favorites like Sam Darnold/USC +400, Baker Mayfield/Oklahoma +700, and Jalen Hurts/Alabama +1800. Bama doesn’t pass the ball enough for their QB to win. They have had two Heisman winners, but both times with a RB.

3. Mason Rudolph QB/Oklahoma St. +2500

Rudolph quarterbacks an offense that scores a ton of points, in the weakest Power-5 conference, with the best wide-receiver in college football. This is good value.

4. Lamar Jackson QB/Louisville +750

Oddly enough, the reigning Heisman trophy winner is not the pre-season favorite. Jackson started the season off with record-setting performances but then cooled off down the stretch. For this reason public-sentiment is down on him, too low IMO. I do not consider L’ville a playoff-contender so I’m not too high, but Jackson is too dangerous not to consider.

5. Kamryn Pettway RB/Auburn +3300

Picking a lower-odds RB (Barkley/Penn St. +700, Guice/LSU +1200, or Scarbrough/Bama +1400) is setting money on fire, but Pettway at 33-1 is good enough for me to take a flyer on. The Auburn QB, Stidham +2000, is also worth consideration. This is his first year with Auburn though, so I’m going with the proven-commodity. Auburn is a darkhorse playoff-team, and if they get there that means that Pettway had a monster-season in the best conference in America.

Honorable mention - Cam Akers RB/FSU +5000

This is set-up as a sucker bet, but many think that Akers has the ability to be the next Adrian Peterson/Ezekiel Elliott. He is only a freshman but he could potentially be the best player on the national-championship team.

I discovered a gem in tonight's Ohio State-Indiana football game.

Mike Weber RUSHING YARDS U 94.5 +105

Weber has barely practiced all summer due to injury. He will play but his backup, a freshmen, is suspected to steal a decent amount of carries tonight. Weber only averaged 84.3 yards per game last year, and against Indiana rushed for 71. I don't see why the heck Vegas wants us to beat the under??? FULL STEAM AHEAD!

O 57

I also like the over for the game. Kevin Wilson is still coaching in this game, albeit he switched sides. Wilson likes to break the scoreboard, and Indiana still has good offensive players to try and keep up. Last three years they went for 55, 61 and 69. If you can tease it down to 50, you'll be golden.

SNG WEEK 14

Hours: 38.42
Volume: 320

BR Start: $1,796.30
BR End: $1,822.15
WD: $250
Profit: + $314.35

ABI: $21.49
ROI: + 4.56%
Hourly: + $8.18

Profitability Diagnosis

Game: $10.50 Double-Up

Volume: 509

ROI: 9.65%

Profit: $515.50

ITM: 57.56%

Long-Term ROI: 14.1% to 5.3% (w/ 95% confidence)

Games/hr: 7.44 (avg. game lasts ~29 minutes, play x4 at a time)

Taxed-Hourly: $9.04
Hourly: $7.54

A solid game for me like the $5-Hyper.