I have not played a lot of poker the past few days. Taking a break from losing feels great, after two weeks of getting my soul crushed it was starting to get to me.

I have been enjoying the NBA playoffs this weekend. It is really the only time I get into the NBA, as I prefer college. I don’t handicap it bc it’s not my area of expertise, but I do play a little DFS. Nothing serious, for fun I played $15 today.

Got a play of the day: Isaiah Thomas O 28.5 points

His sister died in a car crash yesterday. Many times when a family member passes the athlete performs very well. I am betting $60 in honor of the human spirit. He averaged 28.9 ppg this year. Butler is going to be guarding Thomas, and the Bulls held him under in 2/3 games this year. This is not a winning play under normal circumstances, but I believe Thomas will go above and beyond today.

I loaded up my equity software, got out a calculator, pen, paper and sat down to better solve the math of short-stack shoving in low limit live poker.

My conclusions are based upon these assumptions:

1. This is $2/$2.

2. $7 max rake structure up to $40 ($5 to house, $2 to promo fund)

We are getting rakeback from the promo fund in the form of hourly high hands and the Bad Beat Jackpot, however it is far too inconsistent for me to account for with much accuracy. For example, I won a high hand last week for $100. It could be a year before this happens again, or I could become a luckbox and win three in one night like some of these leprechaun ******’s do.

3. We have near zero fold equity pre-flop.

If you play low-limit live poker you know what I mean, someone is highly likely to find a reason to call your $40 shove.

4. We will be called by one villain.

This is rather optimistic, and there will be a part 2 for two callers.

5. Villain's calling range: 22+, A6+, A3s, A2s, KJ+, K10s, K8s, QJs, Q9s, J9s+, T8s, 87s

This range comes out to 21%.

In a fish’s mind most A-highs (an ace hits a lot, and then I have top pair), broadways (especially when suited I can connect with too many boards to fold) and all pairs (he prob just has two over-cards) are no-brainer calls to them.

I also was generous and only threw in a few random hands. I have seen a lot more worse hands look me up, as bad as low high cards not even connected or suited.

6. The caller is in the SB or BB.

Strangely enough a decent amount of my action comes out of the blinds. The jello-heads
don't have to worry about getting raised behind them, and are free to LOL gamble-gamble.

More importantly, $2 less in un-raked money helps to underestimate our equity as opposed to overestimating it.

7. No tipping.

I’m most likely the poorest person in the room, so I don’t lose any sleep over it.

Break-Even Points by Hand (not exact, for future convenience I calculated on a basis of $5 levels)

First off before we get to the hands, I want to discuss how I didn’t realize before this exercise how drastically the rake affects your EV the shorter your stack gets. When I initially calculated if I can shove profitability I made a big mistake and assumed bc of my tournament background that the shorter I get, the looser I should be shoving. You will see from my findings that I found actually the opposite is true.

$45 - 77, ATs
$35 - AJ
$30 - 88
$25 - AQ, AJs
$15 - 99
$0 - TT+, AK, AQs+

Now let’s see how profitable each hand is when shoving for $40.

77, ATs -0.25
AJ +0.50
88 +1.62
AJs +2.37
AQ +2.75
99 +3.87
AQs +4.25
AK +5.75
AKs +6.87
TT +6.87
JJ +9.50
QQ +12.50
KK +15.87
AA +25.25

The implications of these calculations should help all $1/2 live players when dealing with short-stack all-ins. You need to be calling tight as well bc of the rake.

Don't we all eventually die?

So why turning pro? You're gonna die anyway..Just stay at your mom's

I feel a lot better after reading this. In the low-limit live win-rate thread on here, most of the posters make it sound like they never lose. I read things like this:

“I pretty much never have a losing session.”

“When I do have a losing week it is never for much more than a buy-in.”

“I may have a losing week, but I have never had a losing month.”

After seeing some nasty negative variance first-hand, I have decided that thread is full of BS or guys who won't admit they are on a live super-heater.

Th - 4h 45m
Sa - 3h 30m
Su - 6h 20m
Tu - 7h 20m
We - 5h 30m

27.25 hours -$743

Tips $29
High-Hand +$100

The last two days of poker have been a perfect real-time example of my strategy. The spoiler is the result of the first day (those are x12 stacks of $50). I got $40 in with AK pre vs A10, and was run down. It took less than one orbit for me to see this could be a good night. There were four young black men and a bad reg punting their stacks off back and forth to each other.

I re-bought in for the max, and proceeded to nit it the F up. I also limped and called a lot so I could see a ton of flops with these guys. I was something like 50/2/0 VPIP on the night bc of my opponents. I only got one big pair and AK one more time, but it didn’t even matter. Almost all of the winnings came from three hands. I squeezed AK on the button to fold out the $12 raiser and the five other callers. Second hand I raised QQ to $18 pre, and got two callers. Near potted the flop and turn to stack an A-high flush draw. Third hand I flopped bottom two-pair in a baby-raised pot on a board of T87. Turned a boat with the 8, and stacked the second biggest fish on the table who had Q8.

The next night I lost 3/4 short-stack all-ins.

#1 Four-handed I flat a $10 raise on the button with AA, and the SB calls as well. Flop 876. Raiser c-bets $15, and I shove for $15 more. SB folds, and he calls with J9. He rivers a straight.

We are almost always getting it in pre or on the flop, so by flatting I felt I could pick up some extra juice from one of the blinds.

EV +$14

#2 Eight-handed I open UTG+1 for $20 with QQ, and $30 behind. Three callers, and then the SB shoves for $110 more. I call and everyone else folds. He rivers a set of 9’s.

I had just moved to the table, and would have opted to shove if this hand had happened a couple of orbits later. I got lucky that the fish 3bet AI or else this hand might have been -EV.

EV +$76

#3 Five-handed UTG opens for $6 with two callers. I shove in the SB for $50 total with 88. UTG calls with AQ, and the rest fold. He hits an A on the river.

UTG is very loose, and I thought the callers had bloated the pot enough to be +EV.

EV +$6

#4 Four-handed after one limper I raise to $11 on the button with A9, and $34 behind. BB calls and the limper folds. Flop AK10. I shove, and he calls with Q10. Board bricks out.

EV +$13

It is not hard for me to find profitable spots while playing short in this room.

EV Results +$109
REAL Results -$98

WEEK 2

BR: $1185

Rent: $157.13
Food: $104.45

So this must be what a sinking ship feels like. Good game Jacksonville.

In all fairness to the Aces and Kings crowd, what they mean to say is they hate getting stacked by players that can play junk deep knowing nits won't release the overpairs.

A couple of nights ago there was a very young woman who was playing for the first time. Her 55 OWG bf had just taught her and was playing beside her. She proceeds to run up her $80 buy-in to $400 by hitting two sets and top two-pair on clean boards. After every win she shakes uncontrollably for several minutes and talks about how afraid she was. She mentions that she doesn't make much money waitressing, and that she should play more bc poker is so much easier.

I eventually say to her, "you can cash-out if you want to". She gives me a why-are-you-evening-talking-to-me-look and ignores me. Luckily for her, she only gave $100 back before the room closed at 4am.

Part 2: EV in Multi-Way Pots

All assumptions from part one still stand, albeit now we are adding a second caller in LP. Their range at 15% is stronger than the caller in the blinds. I feel that if I give them a much stronger range than that I would need to start factoring in fold equity.

Break-Even Points

$xx - All lesser hands are not profitable all-in preflop for any amount under these circumstances.
$35 - AJ
$30 - A10s
$25 - AJs
$20 - AQ
$15 - 99
$0 - TT+, AK, AQs+

20bb EV

88 -1.25
AJ +0.25
ATs +1.00
AJs +1.50
AQ +3.50
99 +3.75
AK +7.25
AQs +7.75
TT +9.00
AKs +11.25
JJ +14.25
QQ +21.25
KK +25.75
AA +37.50

After this second exercise the additional adjustments I would make are folding 88 and 77 in EP. We can also profitably shove our big Aces with smaller stack-sizes bc of the bigger pots we get multi-way. Our big pairs make more money, but for diminishing returns the more opponents we face. In EP we should over-shove big pairs to discourage too many callers. In MP and especially LP we can opt to open smaller to attract a caller.

Th - 7h 5m
Sa - 3h 50m
Su - 4h
Tu - 1h 5m
We - 3h 15m

Tips $27

19.25 hours

-$34

Am I a nit?

I bought a case of bottled AQUAFINA water that is an exact match of the poker room's. $1.50+$1 tip or $0.25, hmmm?

Final Part: 20bb 3-betting

I will be solving for the three typical open-raising ranges I encounter at the low-stakes.

Situation A: Villain opens UTG to $15, and it folds to Hero in the SB. Hero 3-bet shoves, the BB folds and villain calls.

Raises to $10-$15 are standard in a vacuum.

Situation B: Two EP limpers, villain in MP raises to $12. Hero in LP 3-bet shoves. Everyone else folds and villain calls.

I know that some players will opt to limp the bottom of their opening range in this spot. The more aggressive players aren’t deterred though bc they like to build pots pre-flop. I primarily want to see here what impact the dead limper and ante money has on the EV.

Situation C: Folds to villain in the CO who opens to $10. The BU flats and Hero in the BB 3-bet shoves. The CO and BU both just call.

Range #1 QQ+ (1.5%)

I would say a 1/4 of the player field almost never open-raises. They are limping 98% of the time, and a few are 100%. Some do open however they prefer to limp with KK+ and trap, you just have to know your regs. There are old nits that I would snap fold QQ to when short, but if deep it is so much fun to set-mine against them.

A.

KK -2.50
AA +19.25

I have not yet encountered this scenario, but it appears I have to strongly consider folding KK here.

B.

KK +0.50
AA +24.00

Range #2 99+, A10+, KQ (9%)

This is your standard rec’s opening range. For the most part they have little to no positional awareness, whatever they are raising UTG is pretty much what they raise on the BU.

A.

AQ -0.75 (break-even at 65bb)
AQs -0.25 (b-e 22bb)
JJ +1.50
AK +4.00
AKs +5.25
QQ +7.00
KK +13.25
AA +24.25

B.

TT, AJs -EV pre-flop
AQ +1.25
AQs +3.00
JJ +4.75
AK +7.50
AKs +9.00
QQ +10.75
KK +17.50
AA +29.25

Range #3ABC 77+, A8+, A5s+, K10+, K9s, QJ, Q10s, J9s+ (18%)

Now we have an aggro-range. 90% of the aggressive players at this level are varying degrees of spewage. This is just a starting point, and many factors such as table dynamics and player mood will affect this range.

(only for C) #3C 44+, A10+, A8s+, KQ, KJs (12%)

The continuing range for the third player is much easier to peg down. On average this will be wider, but I wanted to be overly-conservative here. Once a fish calls that first bet, he is calling at a high rate any second bet that is not extremely over-sized. “Dog-gummit you’re not gonna stop me from seeing MY FLOPS!!!”

A.

88, AT -EV
ATs -0.75 (b-e 27bb)
99 -0.25 (b-e 22bb)
AJ +0.50
AJs +2.25
TT +3.50
AQ +3.50
AQs +5.00
AK +7.00
JJ +7.25
AKs +8.25
QQ +11.25
KK +16.00
AA +23.75

B.

AT +0.50
88 +0.50
ATs +2.50
99 +3.00
AJ +3.75
AJs +5.75
TT +6.75
AQ +6.75
AQs +8.50
AK +10.75
JJ +11.00
AKs +12.00
QQ +15.25
KK +20.50
AA +29.00

C.

88, ATs -EV
99 +2.25
TT +3.75
AJ +6.00
AJs +8.00
AQ +8.50
AQs +11.75
AK +13.25
JJ +14.50
AKs +15.75
QQ +19.75
KK +30.25
AA +44.50

No more long strategy posts, please. I wrote these for the one person who asked, and myself.

WEEK 3

BR $755

Rent $274.99
Food $88.10

It’s been awhile since my last hobo story. Last week I was living in my car for a few days in between motel stays. I couldn’t stay cool in the poker room bc I was waiting on money to be transferred from my bitcoin account to my checking account. I had driven past many times what looked like a sweet spot to spend a day. It was a big parking lot of a large empty office building for sale. The highlight was the giant shade trees lining the back of the lot. Whenever I drove by before there would always be a couple of semi-trucks and occasionally a car chilling out. I get there and am super excited bc the Baskin Robbins next door is close enough for me to use their wifi.

I had been there for less than an hour when a Sheriff car pulls in. He circles around the lot and I realize he is here for me. For whatever reason I attract law officers like flies to crap. I have been accused of being high on several occasions, even though I have never done drugs in my life outside of a few joints in high school. A previous run-in with the police is the reason I stopped driving a truck, and that is a story for another time.

The cop parks next to me and starts checking out my plates. He looks fresh out of JUCO with facial hair even weaker than mine. To summarize our conversation, trucks are allowed to park wherever they want but I sitting in my car look very suspicious, he didn’t understand why anyone from Ohio would want to live in Florida, and it is legal to steal wifi (which I’m pretty sure is incorrect). He leaves and is back half an hour later, so I decide to move on to another spot.

I find an adequate shade tree in the corner of a small grocery store. An hour later in my mirror I catch a cop car driving up behind me to check my plates. A couple hours after that I walk over to get a milkshake, and another cop car spots me from the street. I come out of the fast-food joint and the car is parked across the street until I get back to my car.

Good riddance Orange Park, I am nobody. No more living in my car for awhile I guess.

Hit and run week.

Th - 2h
Fr - 2h 15m
Sa - 3h 40m
Tu - 1h 40m
We - 1h 15m

tips - $5

10.75 hrs

+$71

Who is more psychotic, the guy that always brings his girl or her for accompanying him during a 5-hr session?

She must be either insane, enslaved to misery or the clingiest woman in the world. I just can’t imagine what would possess someone to waste 15 hours of their life in this way every week. I have a passion for poker but if I wasn’t there to make money, I would rather watch paint dry than to observe a $1/2 game.

As for the guy, how can you be that big of a douchebag? It is obvious that she doesn’t understand or enjoy poker, so why would you allow/want her there? I can only guess you either like to control every aspect of her life, or you succumb to her insecurities and she actually controls you. This is just something I don’t get at all, and as lame as live poker is, having a girl sitting directly behind me would make it unbearable. I would assume one of the reasons guys play poker for fun is to get some time away from their significant other.

For my edge in the game this can only be a good thing. There is no way that he can be concentrating much at all on the table while his girl is constantly whispering in his ear and touching him.

WEEK 4

BR $565

Rent $117.85
Food $95.17

Alec the Arabic Angler

Alec is an older reg who at first comes off as a nice guy, but his actions say otherwise. Alec’s shtick is he wants you to think he is playing friendly poker with you, like checking down once it’s heads up or telling you to fold bc he has a big hand. Once he has your guard down he will attempt to stab you in the back at some point.

I had one angleshoot situation come up with Alec. I am so tight-aggressive when short-stacked he never had many chances. He had called at least half a dozen of my all-ins during my time here, and I think I won all of them. In this particular session it was close to 4am closing time and we were 4-handed. The other two guys were competent, but with Alec at the table it was still a good game. We had the dealer who hates his job, and he let us run out of blue ante chips. They switched dealers and an argument ensued between them. It had folded to me in the SB and Alec in the BB, and since we waiting a couple of minutes I asked if he wanted to put in $5 each and check it down. Perhaps it was a bit of an angle on my part bc I already knew I had two black jacks. He agrees and we check it down to the river with four diamonds on the board. I had a straight and check per our agreement, and then Alec proceeds to bet $25 so I fold. I was pissed and let him know I would never make any sort of deal with him again.

Naw, I do this with Redbull when I remember. $6 for a 4 pack at Wal-Mart, 4.50 for one can at the rooms.

Interesting thread man. I share some of your outlooks on life. I'm grinding 2/5 and used to play 1/2 and the variance can be high. Try to sell some of your gold or work part time and get off the shortstacking, your win rate will be higher and variance lower. Plus nobody likes a shortstacker

Biggest POS in Orange Park

40 OWG, loud alcoholic with a rotten attitude from New Orleans. Frequently argumentative, constantly complaining when he loses or has to fold, slamming his cards into the muck and bending them like a baccarat player. He treats his girlfriends like crap, once I saw him berate one in the parking lot for ten minutes straight.

The first time I sat at a table with him, he was on the phone. The dealer, an assertive woman, asks him to get off the phone. He tells the table, “I’m talking to one of my side b****es.” He ends his phone conversation with, “Shut the f*** up b****!!”. Now him and the dealer start getting into it for his foul language. I chime in to try and stop the guy from getting kicked off. He stays and donks off $150 to me with A-high and middle-pair.

…..and on my last leg I was dealt the deathblow. In 3 pots I lost $500 all-in pre-flop vs 76o, K2s and 66.

Bye-bye Jacksonville Donks. Where 2 next?