Thanks for the input guys. Time to reply.
@ meale
I havent changed my diet much. I dont think I eat that much at all
but I surely could go somewhat healtiher in that department.
I had a conversation with the staff there and they said Im best off doing
10 minutes cardio, then weights (on 7 different tools) and finish with
15 minutes cardio again. About the weights - Im at the 2nd lowest level now
(18kg) and the idea is to gradually build from there. On each tool I do a 3x15 series.
Been there for the 2nd time now and I have to say this was one of the best decisions
I made over the past few years. The focus is not that much to loose weight, I guess
thats going to happen anyway but just to build some stamina again. Havent done
anything but sitting in my chair for the past years.
Now to the hand..
I wasnt looking that much for some GTOish answer. There is a huge likelyhood
BB is a recreational and I may never see him again. The obvious answer always
is to shove but it intrigued me a bit while playing. In the end I ended up checking
and he valuejammed Th9h.
What I find to be crucial factors here:
1. We block a lot of TP hands villain may be donking with OTF so his range should
be weighted more towards draws to start with.
2. Villain OTR has even less nutted hands since I expect undersets to fastplay some
OTF, or OTT - not saying he doest get there with sets but we are indifferent to
his toprange since he is jamming that himself. Same goes for all 86s combos.
3. If we dont jam we are going to loose value vs his AhXh hands that are very likely
calling but we wil force folds from all other hearts combos.
So to find an answer wheather check or jam has a higher EV we need to have a look
at the ratio of AhXh hands and XhYh hands he may be bluffin with.
A lot of this is going to be assumptions but ill try to make it realistic as possible.
The range he gets to the river with and we arent indifferent against is the following:
Yellow we wanna bet against, blue we wanna check against.
I did not give him all the fdraws only J-high+
There is some merit in examining his Thxh and 9hXh combos that wil nearly always checkback but bluffcatch sometimes.
Normally when fish have a big draw they end up being entitled to the pot
so lets assume that half of his ThXh and 1/4 of his 9hXh are calling a jam.
The total combo count OTR is 41.
Always calling: 7
50% calling (ThXh): 5/2=2,5
25% calling (9hXh): 3/4=0.75 ... a total of 10.25 combos
26 of his combos are unpaired. Thats 63,4% of his entire range.
15 of his combos are bluffcatchers, and 10,25 of them are calling.
So he bluffacthes with 25% of his range.
If villain bluffs with 25/63,4=39% of his unpaired range it doesnt matter what we do.
If they bluff more which in reality I think they do (after all we look like we are giving up)
check becomes better. These numbers are a bit arbitrarily chosen but its nice
to play around..
The only valid conclusion is that its going to depend of villains bluffing frequencies and that
his river range is very weak.
However its surely not a spot where check should not be considered and not so long
ago Id just be closing my eyes and jamming here. I loved my check in game
but Id have loved it even more if villain had a bluff