How does reg not raise river with trips ???

Yeah C/R or lead seem best, kinda prefer leading though. Appreciate the shoutouts as well

I think the bit about x/r'ing turn being nutted is probably the most important part here. I've never thought about it but I don't think I really x/c flop x/r turn very often without the goods, meaning I either need to find some x/r bluffs on turns or make sure I'm x/r'ing flops a large % with my value hands (and then mixing in some bluffs on flop as well).

Eh idk with 3 hearts on board I'm not sure I have all that many hands worse than bad trips that want to b/c river. But I definitely was incredibly surprised to see he had me beat after he flatted lol. To be fair, he literally had the exact next best hand compared to mine on that board, and I wouldn't have been too happy calling a river raise with my hand, so I think the flat's alright.

Didn't see there were 3 hearts so carry on, kinda indifferent to raising now

Calling a raise would suck, shoving to maybe fold out small flushes because LOL Blockers might be better.

And ya, back in the day c/r Turn use to get folds soooo often, have to be pretty deep to do it though.

Hey sorry Dan about the Andrew mistype, that's why you shouldn't IM with two people while you're trying to write posts on the internets.

I know your mental game is solid but I don't see why you're thinking about these types of things in the middle of a session, doesn't seem productive.

For sure, it doesn't really bother me like it used to but I suppose I shouldn't look at it at all. Think I just wanted to vent frustrations and point out on here just how bad it was going but definitely a pointless exercise.

Short Poker Update

It has not been a fun poker week. I was proud of my focus on decisions and not results yesterday. It felt like when I first started taking the grind seriously again earlier this year, before I was having any success, and I was content with losing so long as I was playing my A game. It's easy to go on a winning streak and then subconsciously get cocky and feel like you "deserve" to win when you play, and I think that was starting to happen to me again. Yesterday I reigned that all in and didn't tilt when I got sucked out in the Thursday Thrill to bust or when I got KT in vs K5o and was flopped stone dead (there is literally 1 flop that can make that a true statement lol), or when I was down to 2 tables with short stacks on each, looking at another big losing day. I DID however slam my mouse once again when HEM froze my computer when I had 10BBs, in the BB, with AK, in the WSOP 10K, facing a button open. It froze it so that the screen itself didn't freeze but I could not select an action, and I was forced to watch myself get timed out. I went and lay face first on my bed for about 2 minutes after that lol. I did salvage a 3rd place finish in the Party $55 turbo but lost a bit again on the day.

Running Update

Damn it feels good to have running when poker is going to ****! I have been running fast. I'm gonna run a 10K (6.2 miles) race on Monday and am pretty excited about it. It'll be my first attempt at a race since I injured myself in the half marathon. The temperature was 18 degrees when that race started, something tells me it will be a bit nicer for this one.

I ran 8 miles on Tuesday just under 7:00 pace, 4 miles Wednesday at 6:48 pace, 4 miles yesterday at 6:43 pace, and I just finished up a 4 miler where my splits were 6:44 (24ft elevation)--6:46 (44ft elevation)--6:21 (42ft decline)--5:59 (25 ft decline) for a total of 25:50 for 4 miles (6:27/mile). It felt good too, I had more in the tank by the end and probably could've gone under 5:30 if I was running that last one as fast as possible. And that's coming after 3 pretty fast miles. I'm pretty curious if I could break 5:00 in the mile with the shape I'm in right now. With good conditions (no wind, 50-60 degree weather, etc) I really think I could. My fastest time in high school was 4:38 and my fastest 1500 in college was 4:20 (about the same pace as the 4:38 mile). I'm pretty pumped to run this 10K and see what I can do. I think I'll go out conservatively, but not super slow, in the first couple miles and then start to gradually pick up and try to run negative splits throughout.

Putting in a very small relaxed session tonight, probably getting to bed early, run in the morning then to my buddy's dad's place for memorial day weekend festivities, back Sunday for the grind, then Monday morning 10K. I have to go back to my hometown Tuesday for a dentist's appointment, might head to AC afterwards, not sure about that yet though.

I understand that sometimes delving into the nuts and bolts of problems helps you learn but this isn't one of those times.

Particularly because you haven't really manually done it. You've just taken one "branch" of the ICM 'tree" and disregarded the rest of the calculations.

For example; What if the SB folds and BB calls? What if they both call? etc etc.

TLR use an ICM calc

For the specific situation I cited, I have really manually done it. I was curious if I would mathematically prefer the SB call or fold, and found that it was about break even dollar-wise for me whether he called or folded. I understand there are multiple things that can happen in a given hand and that all would need to be taken into consideration, which is why I suggested checking out ICMizer, but I don't see the problem with trying to figure things out for yourself rather than just being a robot and using software for everything.

I'm sorry but you haven't. ICM doesn't work the way you think it does.

I agree in most cases. The problem here is that you haven't figured it out so are calculating it incorrectly, leading to incorrect assumptions and incorrect conclusions.

I'm not having a go at you man. I just don't think you realize how complex these types of calculations really are.

seems foolish to boycott 1 of 3 sites that NJ has to offer fwiw especially in the summer when its going to be butter soft.

I hope so but if you don't take a stand against not playing when the software can be so tilting sometimes when would you?

Poker

Lost $4500 this week, just been losing every hand I play. Not much to be done about it. Also have stopped playing on WSOP.com. They released an "update" maybe a month ago and my computer is always laggy when it's open. I assumed it was the somewhat old laptop I use combined with HEM often slowing it down, and then on Friday I was 2 tabling with no HUD and WSOP once again froze, this time when I was short with 5 players left in a $100 10K. I was lucky that the break occurred a hand or two after I froze because it took me 5 minutes to get back on.

So as Norm alluded to, I'll be boycotting WSOP.com until they figure it out. They're just ignoring people on social media who have complained about it and I just can't have my computer freezing in big spots because of bugs in a software. Especially when that software didn't have bugs before they made some bull**** update that just made the lobby look a little nicer. It's even ****ed the lobby up in that it's HUGE and there's no way to size it down. It's very strange.

The bankroll is down to 25.5K which is pretty stupid but I guess it's good that I've got a good amount in the bank and have "paid" for the taxes up to 30K (meaning that once I get the roll back to 30K, I won't have to take any off for taxes since I've already accounted for them). Might take a couple days off. I'm happy with how I'm playing but it is really frustrating to just lose every hand you play. Might be good to just take a couple days and come back with a fresh head.

Running

Went 5 miles on Saturday, running pretty much the whole 10K course. Part of the course repeats a 1.8 mile loop so you can see it all by just running 4.4 miles. Did a very easy 3 miler today that felt really good. It's funny that at this point my definition of a very easy run is 3 miles in a shade under 21:00, but I really do feel like I'm jogging at this point when I go 7 flat pace.

Tomorrow morning is the Ridgewood Run, where they have a bunch of races including a 10K, 5K, elite mile, and even a wheelchair 10K. I'll be hopping in the 10K at 8:20am. My brother said he's gonna come bandit the race (hopping in without paying lol). He did this for the half marathon I ran in and his pace and casually chatter really helped me relax and feel good until my leg gave out. I'm convinced I would've held 6:30 pace in that race if my leg didn't mess up. I've been thinking I'd be happy with 6:20 pace for this 10K but given Jon will be there, that might be a very conservative estimate. No way to know until I get out there though. It'll be raining which sucks but with a temperature in the high 50s it'll be perfect for distance running.

I also joined the Garden State Track Club this week. I have a ton of friends in the club and always sort of felt like an honorary member but given the amount of running I've been doing and the desire for some motivation to get into good racing shape, I finally ponied up the reasonable $30 annual fee. My former coach, some former teammates, and my brother are all part of the club, and the running community is just so so friendly and accepting of everyone, it's really fun to be around people like that who are constantly encouraging each other, regardless of skill level. I guess at this point the long term goal will be to break 16:22 in a 5K. That's my fastest time that I ever ran, which came my freshman year of college, which is over 7 years ago now! It would be really really cool to make a comeback like that, and given my weak work ethic in college compared to my motivation to run today, I think it's possible. Time to get some sleep for the race, which will be my 50th day of running in a row!

Running

Really really good day for me running-wise today. Woke up at 7, out of the house by 7:30, had some water and a banana, parked my car and warmed up 2 miles then found my brother near the starting line about 5 minutes before the start. The race was extremely well done, everything went off on time despite some light rain and a massive 833 runner field. There were clocks at every mile mark, water stops everywhere, and while I didn't need either of these things with a watch on my wrist and no desire to slow down for water in a race as short as a 10K, it's great to have those things for other runners who need them.

Mile 1

The race started pretty similarly to the half marathon for me in that my brother and I chatted it up and laughed at all the goofy things that happen in races: people go out too hard and are panting a quarter mile in, kids on the sideline are amazed by the sheer number of runners going by, that guy right in front of us has a strange flailing motion running form, etc. I told Jon I didn't want to go out too fast, maybe 6:30 and then adjust from there based on how I was feeling, and the first mile felt very relaxed. At one point a group of a few people passed us, and a younger me probably would have not stood for that, but older wiser Dan looked at his brother and told him that he was serious about taking it easy to start. Nonetheless, we came through the mile at a much faster than expected 6:16 (31 ft elevation).

Mile 2

I joined the Garden State Track Club this past week; I've basically been an honorary member with how many people I know who are on the team but I finally ponied up the annual fee and joined all the GSTC Facebook groups and whatnot. One girl who I've met before wrote on the page "wait I thought he was already on the team." Flash forward to the beginning of our 2nd mile and I look to my right to see Alyssa right there! It's incredible the kind of shape some of these girls are in. I'm running a pretty solid 6:15/mile and she's right next to me and we're having a conversation! I started to feel really good on mile 2 though so my brother and I took off a bit and started passing people, a trend that would continue throughout the race. There was 32 ft of decline on this mile so I thought I might have maintained pace from the first mile, but instead my watch split 6:02 for the 2nd mile and I knew the new goal of this race was gonna be to continue to split miles around 6:00.

Mile 3

The talking with Jon has slowed down for me by this point, though Jon is in incredible shape so he continued talking to me. A little bit of downhill followed by a little of up totaled 7 ft of decline for mile 3 which I split in 6:04. I was still feeling good but the fatigue was there. In some strange way I was feeling some similar things to what I've felt later in poker tournaments recently. When things are going well I used to get timid and even think about all the things that could go wrong. But in tourneys these days I just go for it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but I never regret things when I go for it and it yields better results overall. In the past in races when I'd start to feel tired with 3 miles to go this panic would set in. I mean it is scary; things are going well but you have to run hard for 3 more full miles. It can get daunting if you overthink it. But today that recent poker mentality I've had was there. "Finish this out. Put it all out there. Forget all the things that could go wrong and just run hard." I came through the first 5K just a shade over 19 minutes.

Mile 4

More of the same from mile 3, more fatigue setting in, we hit a pretty solid uphill in which I focus really hard on form, drive my arms as hard as I can, and even pass a guy on the hill. Mile 4 slows to 6:12 but with 30ft of elevation, it might be my most solid mile so far in the race.

Mile 5

We hit a little downhill around the 4.3 mile mark and I put in a surge. That's not something I would have done in the past given how fatigued I was doing but I decided to trust that I was in good enough shape to start going for it. We make a turn and I see a group of 4 in front of me that I decide I'm going to pass. Before I catch them they all start to disband. I catch 3 of them while the 4th continues plugging along. Mile 5 splits at 6:13 with 8ft of elevation and it's time for the last 1.2 miles.

Mile 6

Mile 6 is actually a repeat of mile 2, featuring a nice downhill around the 5.3 mile mark. It's at that point I decide I'm just gonna go for it. I might die but what do I have to lose. I continue passing runners (I'd estimate I've caught between 20 and 30 runners so far this race with no one passing me after that first mile) but it's clear that these guys are tough; when I go by them they put in a surge to stay with me. I'd put in a bigger surge when that happened to just let them know they were not going to be sticking with me. I split the 6th mile in 5:57 (29ft decline), my fastest mile of the day, and have about a quarter mile left to kick to the end.

The Finish

With maybe 300 meters left in the race the course took a right turn in order to get to the finish. My brother veered off at that point since he wasn't registered for the race lol, and I made the turn and started to kick. One of the guys I passed in this past mile now comes up on my shoulder kicking really hard. It was at that point I realized I was not kicking as hard as I could, and an all out sprint began. I kicked hard enough that I actually caught another guy right before the tape to sneak into the top 25, coming exactly 25th place in 38:13 (6:09/mile). My watch recorded my last 0.27 miles at 87 seconds, so basically an 80 second lap on the track to finish a 10K. We'll take it.

I took a night off from poker to relax and I think I'll do that again tomorrow. Going to my hometown for a dentist appointment at 2:00 then at 4:00 I'll drive to a park near New Brunswick to go on a run with a few friends. They're all on GSTC so I guess it'll be my first actual run with them as a member of the team. Think they're going out for food drinks and bowling afterwards so that should be a lot of fun. I'll be back Wednesday to play at least then and Thursday, and then might take Friday off to visit my late friend's memorial. It'll be 4 years to the day since we lost him so it would be nice to do something nice to remember him. I think he'd be happy that I was running for real again.

Solid mental fortitude during the initial fatigue to put your head down and keep running your pace. Passing 20+ people near the end to achieve 25th is a very impressive finish dude!!

Congrats on fast times and solid finish-

Thanks guys, it felt great!

Poker

Down $5K in the last 2 weeks and feeling frustrated every time I play. So it's time to go back to the way I was doing things in late January / early February, when the results weren't coming but I was happy with my work ethic and my attitude throughout and felt certain it was only a matter of time before things swung around. I have to play with the main goal being to have fun! It sounds corny but I'm just not going to do well if I'm frustrated as soon as things start going south. Today I will be 1 tabling the $250 Thursday Thrill, will not use a HUD, will really think every spot through, and I feel confident that I'll be happy with how I play given the amount of concentration I'll give to this one tournament. I think part of the tilt factor comes from playing a lot of tables and not being 100% sure of my decisions, leading to extreme frustration when a play doesn't work.

The other thing that's been frustrating me is that with all of the regs off to Vegas for the series, there are an extremely high percentage of fish in these fields, and they are cruuuuushing me lol. It feels like the type of fish in the NJ markets has changed substantially in the last few years. Early on there were just a ton of nits, and running them over seemed pretty easy. But in recent times these guys are just 3 betting every time I open, then c-betting pot and shoving turn when we start the hand 100bbs deep. They're making it so that I basically have to go back to playing these tournaments like they're $1 buy ins. Only open premiums, value bet top pair plus for huge sizings and don't fold postflop when you make a hand. It's boring but it should be effective.

But it's also very frustrating when you don't make hands, because you have to keep folding to this mindless aggression. It also makes me feel less confident in myself, because I wonder if maybe I should be doing more than just nut peddling. Maybe I should 4b bluff, maybe I should peel lots of hands, maybe I should be bluffing more postflop. But I do have the feeling that my strategy is the most optimal vs these types of fish and I just have to be patient, which sometimes means patient for dozens of tournaments, for the right rush of cards to come to lead to me having all the chips. Then once you get deep into the tournament you can start playing poker that has some more thought behind it, since people tend to start playing seriously at that point.

Running

Tuesday I did my first official run as a member of the Garden State Track Club. My friend from college who is an extraordinary athlete invited me to a run in New Brunswick and a group of 7 of us went out on a 7 miler. After a very slow 8:30 mile we ran the next 3 around 7:30, the 5th around 7:00, the 6th a little under 7 and the 7th at 6:35. I didn't love this pickup at the end given it was my next day after the race and my past injury I think was due in part to putting too many hard days in a row, but it did feel good while I was running it so I wasn't too worried. I took both Wednesday and today easy, running around 7:00 pace for 4 miles on each run. I'm considering doing some sort of a workout tomorrow but I might end up just taking it easy again. I would be devastated if I got hurt with the AC 5K that I love coming up on June 13 and the Hegedus Run on the 17th. I really want to be there for both and want to really perform well at each run.

Sending upswing mojo

I haven't ran average in a tournament in over 3 weeks. Downswing is up to $8500. Latest edition was getting KK in vs AQ for 125K in the $250 Super Tuesday and ace coming on the river. Battled with short stack for another 4 or 5 levels before busting 15th with 12 paying. The frustration and anxiety is starting to spill over into my day to day life in the sense that I just don't feel great thinking about how low my bankroll is getting given all the bills I have to pay and whatnot. It's demoralizing to continually get the money in good and to literally run bad for hundreds of tournaments in a row. Not enjoying the game even a little bit right now since every single time something gets going in a tournament it's immediately stomped out. Not sure what can really be done. Really over everything in life right now.

Sorry to hear it man, just make sure that when you do put in volume that you are playing well and you will get through it. You've been through it before and will go through it again. Gl

Hang in there man, it's tough but you will persevere.

don't worry man, things will turn around

May be, put together a package and make a trip to Vegas, lot of low buy in tournament or satty into main, you could bink something big, a guy who plays in NJ just won the colossus, you never know..

if you are selling, let me know i will be interested to buy a piece.

Simple, prioritize your life expenses and play out your BR...

You can start using more aggressive BR management if your downswing continues, but start cutting the biggest buyins out of your schedule to get as much play as you can. Cutting out bigger buyins is neutral to the amount of money you're going to make playing in the short term... It could help you or hurt you. You can still win a good amount of money playing a smaller avg buy in; you don't need the homerun potential right now you need to pad your BR.

And as far as the stress factor goes just don't worry about it. You're playing LOLaments on a NJ based website for a living... it's one of the hardest things anyone could ever do, and you've pulled it off, so don't stress you're going to figure it all out. Even if you have to step away from the game for a minute... the game itself and what you've learned isn't going anywhere; you're young and you can do anything you want in life.

Luck can take you right out of the mtt game unfortunately. For a very good player the chance is probably <15% but its always a possibility. This is obviously not the greatest parallel but it's current... I play a much less sophisticated game and field on Ignition and I'm in the middle of a 24 tourney cashless streak which for the game I'm playing is insane (23itm, 75roi), but it happens. There's literally nothing either of us can do... and although I'm not tilting or feel like I'm playing bad, I know I'm not playing my best... running really bad for long stretches is just simply not fun and it takes you off your A game it's inevitable. You have to do everything you can to stay positive and engaged and actually enjoying the process because every degree you move off your A game the higher your susceptibility to a continued downswing (I know you know this)... So the whole key for you right now is just to relax and do work. Take a few more days off or a few weeks if necessary and get back to enjoying living the dream.

You're very young dude you're going to figure it all out no matter what happens; what you've accomplished with your game at your age is already very impressive. And as you know there are many ways for a talented player to make money from the game, none that are easy but some that are certainly easier than what you've tried so far. You're healthy and have solid friends and family for support, so just keep doing what you've been doing and keep adapting and things are going to go good... maybe even better than good.

Not to speak for OP but from my understanding of the NJ tourney scene and from what he has said before in his thread, unfortunately I don't think cutting out the bigger end of his buyins is doable. It seems like these small field $100 10k's and $250 super tuesday are necessary to maintaining any kind of reasonable hourly. Grinding a bunch of small field $30's with a couple small field $50's unfortunately prob won't yield a high enough hourly for it to make sense to be grinding them. Could be wrong but that's my impression from what i've seen/heard about the nj tourney scene.