negative red line is most likely the result of ether not 3betting enough or not bluffing enough. Also betting flop and giving up. Having a negative redline isn't really a huge deal as long as you are profiting.
Hand History Analysis 2: River Spot with Trip Jacks
This was a hand played at 5NL that I wanted to review. Even though I don't play 5NL anymore I thought it was one of the more interesting hands that I remember playing.
River:(35.4 BB, 2 players) K Hero bets 20.6 BB, BTN raises to 87 BB,
Spoiler:
Hero calls 66.4 BB
BTN shows Q T (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 61%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%) Hero shows 9 J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 39%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%) Hero wins 199 BB
Pre-flop a bit too aggressive. I usually don't open J9s in the HJ anymore. (I rarely did before then too.) If I do, it would be because CO and BU are nitty or BB is a fish. Even with that, it's still a bit aggressive. However, by opening J9s this time it would give me 4 more combos of trips that I typically wouldn't have when facing the river action. Anyway, time to analyze the river.
River Required Equity:
66.4/199 = 33.37%
Villain just sat down to the table so no individual reads on the player; I have to rely on the population tendencies when making this river decision.
Is Villain value betting worse? Probably not. Trip jacks no kicker would call this river.
Is Villain bluffing? Villain could be spazzing out and going nuts with air, as it's somewhat common on Ignition 5NL. But with this flop, what are the hands that Villain gets to the river with that he now bluffs? Weak two pair hands.
Flopzilla:
BU River Range vs Hero's Hand
I'm starting to understand Flopzilla a bit more and man is it a neat tool. Still a noob at using it but slowly getting the hang of it. What I did to get to the river spot is have Villain call 48.7% of his hands on the flop, then 53.7% of his hands on the turn. From that you can see his range by the blue charts after his river shove with him bluffing 5 combos. I hope I did this correctly.
On the river, I assigned only 5 bluff combos for Villain. (About 1 combo of A4ss, and 5 combos of ATo). I think this is reasonable since these weak two pair hands make good bluff hands as they both block the nut straight and full houses. This leaves Villain with 12 combos of KQ to either fold or call.
Villain Combos on River:
Total: 33
Value Raises: 15 [1 of KJs, 2 of KJo, 1 of JTs, 3 of TT, 3 of 44, 1 of AJs, 1 of QJs, and 3 of QJo]
Bluff Raises: 5 (4 of ATo, 1 of A4s)
Calls or Folds: 13 (9 of KQo, 3 of KQs, 1 of J9s)
It seems like it's best to run scenarios based on Villain's defending flop range. Something like 50%, 60% and 70%, and analyzing river from there. I'd say I took a conservative approach, which is good in the sense that Villain's estimated equity range will be stronger and I can see how my equity compares to it.
It seems that I need 33.37% equity on the river to call and I have 29.27%. This is a good argument for calling as my estimates were conservative. This is interesting because I was expected this was going to be a fold before I analyzed it. Still not sure if everything was done correctly though. Would welcome any questions, feedback, and advice.
Great thread, I just started playing on ACR after being on Ignition for a few years. Like the software better like everyone, not sure I like the game as much. Playing .10-.25 mainly, same username as here if you see me.
Rookie question, what software are you using to create the graphs you are posting? Assuming you have to download hand history and feed it to a program?
Great thread, I just started playing on ACR after being on Ignition for a few years. Like the software better like everyone, not sure I like the game as much. Playing .10-.25 mainly, same username as here if you see me.
Rookie question, what software are you using to create the graphs you are posting? Assuming you have to download hand history and feed it to a program?
He's using PT4. Unlike ignition you don't need to download hand histories 24hrs later and are immediately pulled into your DB.
How are you liking the 25nl on ACR vs Ignition. I have started to make the switch, but am finding ACR much harder and nittier than Ignition 25nl
Great thread, I just started playing on ACR after being on Ignition for a few years. Like the software better like everyone, not sure I like the game as much. Playing .10-.25 mainly, same username as here if you see me.
Rookie question, what software are you using to create the graphs you are posting? Assuming you have to download hand history and feed it to a program?
Thanks bro! Like Myth said, PT4. I'm using Card Catcher though so I get the HHs right away. I haven't played 25NL on ACR, but my assumptions would be that it's decently tough. You could probably expect to see a lot of rakeback grinders and some bots even. I like ACR better cause of the software and competition. It is definitely tougher though. GL and I probably won't see you at the 25NL tables man. I'm still grinding the micros and haven't put in as much volume as I'd like. GL tho!
Things are going a bit better than the first time around but still a lot of work to do. I can feel myself getting better, which is definitely a plus. Some tables are pretty tough and I have to do a better job of table selecting. If I were to equate the stakes I'd probably say ACR 2NL-5NL is equivalent to about 25NL on Ignition. Not sure though. I might be overstating ACR. It's going to be interesting to compare my win rates across the two sites although I don't think I'll have a reasonable sample size at each stake to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Bad downswing but I'm determined to make it back. Long way to go still before I hit 75K hands. Hopefully, I can achieve a win rate of about 5-7 bb/100 for the remaining 45K hands. That should give me plenty of roll to start playing 25NL full time. I shot took a few session at 25NL already during my time at 10NL and the games look pretty soft. Opponents are making a lot of mistakes. As for my play, I've played pretty terribly, especially recently. I feel like I'm over-bluffing some spots, which is a pretty bad mistake at these stakes. Also need to stop being such a station and fold more flops + turns.
Solid. What are you doing differently this time around? Besides defending K7s in the BB vs a MP open, of course.
Lol dude I think I misplayed every street in that hand. Tough to say, I think it's just variance. Also, I've mostly been playing no more than 8 tables. I just played a session right now of 10 and got smashed. I think I'm going to start playing no more than 6 but gotta stay disciplined. How many tables do you play at once? I feel like you play a lot.