Quote:
Originally Posted by day'n'night
666 hand. Thoughts on explo xf river? Seems like we have a fair few flushes by the river and not that many bluffs that want to jam this river. Also tough for villain to call with worse unless AQ (44 maybe?) or AK with blockers (unlikely to call tbh).
I definitely disagree with this, having looked at the ranges in some detail. We don't arrive with that many flushes by the river at all, only those with straight draws on the flop too (otherwise we have way too many bluffs in our flop x/r range given all the no SDV flush draws we will want to x/r too), so you're talking best case 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 7c4c and 4c3c as well as presumably KdJd for the nut straight. Aside from those, sets give us 6 combos and Aces up give us another 4 that we could conceivably shove for value (65s is way too thin imo, Aces up seems suspect - would be interested in people's opinions on this).
Villain only needs 30% vs our range to break even on a call on the river, so even if we have all 6 combos of straights or better, we can only bluff ~3 combos if this is the worst we are shoving for value - so basically only bricked 43s. This doubles if we add sets. We have a bunch of other missed straight draws to bluff with too.
Also, Villain arrives with very few flushes on the river, only 8c7c and 6c5c seem substantially likely, given the Ac on the flop. He can also have KdJd and AA that beat us (though I would expect a reg to trap AA by checking back flop with some frequency) and maybe V calls the flop x/r with QQ (seems unnecessary when he will have so much Ax and draws). So we're very unlikely to be value cutting ourselves jamming a set. I think 55 is fistpump jam on this runout personally but A6 seems too thin because villain has all the AQ in their range here as well as flopped sets and better.
Would definitely be interested in anyone's thoughts on my reasoning, so long as Ben doesn't feel like it's a derail.