It really feels like one has forgotten how to poker during such a terrible strec, due to bink something during TCOOP. glglgl

En goaaannn !!

Gl bro I know how it feels. See u heads up somewhere tomorrow.

thx for the words dudes

Just finished a weird Sunday session. Started around my usual time on Sundays with Marathon, Kickoff, etc... Then disconnected when pretty deep in 27 6max turbo pko and with a bunch of tables open, tried my best to get it fixed but blinded out a bunch. Finally came back and instabusted kickoff and sunday rebuy, lost big AK<AQ in the 6max pko deeprun and then won a flip off a fish for 10bb each and he started whining in chat. I just snapberated him and was tilted out of my mind after that (did somehow manage to apologize 2min later haha). Stopped regging because it was gg mindset, relaxed a bit after busting hot33 semideep; had some food, went out for cigarettes and came back at about half an hour before the milly to reg again. Connection was a bit shaky still but ended up doing ok and I was fine to play again.

Eventually, got a nice score to finish the session:



Bustout hand liiittle bit lame, but I got 4th in a 1k+ field turbo so what am I really gonna say

https://www.boomplayer.com/22406780_ECA9DA97D9

Got a bunch of spots to icmize tomorrow (I do that nowadays ), above hand also still seems kinda close but I don't see myself folding it as chippie was doing his thang. 88 would've been supertough and 77 I would fold quickly but will try to find a clear answer on that soon. Have to say I am nowhere near as comfortable in these turbo spots as I'd want to be and will definitely put in a lot of work there. Maybe even drop some more turbos untill I do

Anyways, feels goooodddd to add a significant score in 2017. Might put in a sesh tomorrow after studying if not too tired. Vamos

Wrt the 88 spot, do you just follow pure ICM in making your FT decisions or would a large enough EV gap between chipEV and ICM models convince you to make a -ICMEV call?

ICM clearly isn't a perfect model since it doesn't take into account future edges, i.e. us being pushed around until the shortie busts and us being able to push others around after winning the flip with 88 (a +350bb/100 hand in chipEV).

I've heard a few good regs saying that they don't follow pure ICM in every situation, but I've yet to stumble upon a robust process of deciding to what extent we should follow ICM.

Would appreciate your thoughts!

even thinking about folding 99s seems absurd there to me, but ICM sometimes is absurd sort of.

congrats to the score btw!

Hey man, very good question of course, for me personally I'd like to know what the ICM output will be in a certain spot and then adjust from it with something I'll call the 'FTG-factor' (F-This-Guy-factor).

The FTG-factor is an imaginary model that takes into account the significance of the buyin/payjumps of a certain mtt in regards to your roll/life situation (I don't play backed). It also takes into account how vamoo you feel at the time, the feelings you have towards the chipleading reg and of course as you said the difference in future EV wrt doubling up vs folding.

I need to perfect this model for sure but jokes aside, this is pretty much what it comes down to. What you personally think your treshold of taking $$$-variance is and how significant a certain spot is for you. If this was the FT of the milly I'd prob fold 99. In this spot I think I would have ended up calling 88 as well, but like I said would fold 77 quickly. Fwiw ICM says fold AK as well and I don't think I would've done that either. If I was up 10k for the month, I likely snap AQ

FTG-factor, I will commercialize this at some point I think


Yeah, it's really gross to even think about

Thanks man!

It's been several years since I did an ICM calculation but I can't imagine that 99 hand is anything but a fistpump-call. The ICM 4-handed in that game is going to be nowhere near as intensive as the ICM in 180s.

4th place in that game get's >1/3 of what 1st place gets. 3rd place receives > 50% of 1st place, and more than 2/3 what 2nd place receives.

It's nothing like 180s where 3rd basically gets just over 1/2 of what 2nd gets, and 3rd gets not much more than 1/3 of what 1st gets.

It's worth plugging but I think you'll find it's a comfortably good call. Now if CO has 5bb too or bb is really bad and might make some dodgy calloffs because they think they're priced in by being so short then it starts to get tricky. The best thing you can do when plugging a spot is to play around with things and imagine lots of different conditions to find when you might be folding/ calling with even lower pps.

I'd argue that 88 is going to be a call in most conditions there. And if the bb is really tight and we can possibly discount the top end of BTN's range there (maybe they could min the nuts? unlikely but possible) then 77 could even be a call as they play all lower pp this way and a bunch of rag Ax, possibly even some stuff like K3s and Q6s? 45s and 87o?)

Someone did a few calcs for me yesterday when hand just happened and depending on how wide villain actually goes, what he does with the top of his range (pbb r/c) and if he has a r/f range; 99 was between +0.15 and +0.49, with imo the most realistic assumptions applied to the +0.15 result. 88 was ranging -0.40 to +0.01. So purely based on ICM it's definitely closer than you think

Had a very small difference in stacksize with those inputs as opposed to reality I think, which is why I'll icmize it myself during my study later. But 99 is gonna end up being the bottom of our calling range (only accounting for ICM) for sure

77 is burning money, and all hands you mentioned are in his jamming range for every calc (not even the worst hands in there either)

It was the other way around sir holz. When he jams tt+ aq it was around -0.4 and when he r/c tt aq it was around be along with leaving out bottom in both cases.

wooops, makes sense ofc

now that you're here, am I correct in thinking Shelly is wrong and ICM effects in 1k+ fields>>ICM in 180's because of the number of buyins in stead of prize ratios?

If btn is some random or bad reg you should probably even fold 99 since I highly doubt they are going to be shoving the 70% they should. The argument of improved edges in future hands also doesn't really apply with this chip distribution.

Anyway, gg, ul, and gl this year

Chippie was doing it right argument of improving our edge certainly does apply imo, but I agree it isn't really as hefty as we'd want it to be to really negate ICM effects

thx man, gl to you as well!

thought 99 would be bottom at first look, AKo would be very close too. Maybe fold. Still high collision factor with the shortie being in the blinds still next hand.

Seems like I'm wrong! Sorry shelly xx

Nice score mate, upwards from now on.

Nice score man keep it up

Sent from my E5303 using Tapatalk

Nice work in the $44!

Thanks anon, hope you can catch some well deserved heat as well

Cheers guys!


Almost got a cheeky win today but got a bit rekt at FT, think I played well though:



Most of the rekkage done here, worried on the river but never folding meh:

https://www.boomplayer.com/22419269_E5F2B1F741

Back at it tomorrow

Racist tags ITT

Bang Bang.

Lmfao