Yeah I'll have to do that. Otherwise next step is gamblers anonymous.

This is MTD. Down few thousand. Gladly there's a lot of RB. This downswing has just eaten me alive. Part of it is due to the high variance of HU. I don't really doubt my skill level since I was winning last 2 months. I haven't tilted and my game selection has been good. So I don't know what's going on, but I can't keep going this way. No matter how +EV you are, you can't ignore BRM.

Filters are ready. Unsure what goals do I set. I want to prove that I'm a man of my words and not a desperate degen. So let's do this 100-200.

Just read the quote thread good luck with recovering at lowstakes again

I mean no one can take it for granted that they are +EV in games they play. You need a huge sample to be sure, and after you got sample, the games have already progressed a lot. Not having an ego in poker is gold.

I don't want to be harsh, because you seem very enthusiastic about poker and nice guy, but -8bb/100 over 40k hand is unlikely to be just variance (not sure how much of that sample is HU which increases variance a lot).


Just keep working on your game and start moving slowly back up, maybe get some coaching to get your confidence back up. Getting someone who is better than yourself on HH review is superdupersuper golden and will often open your eyes some spots or a new way to think about stuff.

What follows is just my raw opinion based on your writings. You are leaking tremendous amount with youre non-showdown winnings. Don´t know where you base on being +EV on your games. Plus nothing indicates that you are applying any mathematical or game theory judgement on your reasoning. Self-help quotes aint gonna do the thing. You refer a lot of "having worked on my game", what is this work precisely youve done? As personally struggling with my game Im somewhat relief too see people with your gamebook still making it to MSNL, no offense.

Redline wr seems too low and the main issue here, should be like -10bb/100 so we are 'missing' 26 BI right there, and then showdown wr is on the low side as well especially when taking into account that redline is what it is.

FWIW when I run poorly my redline tanks moreso than my blue line, but I play a high WWSF style which I'm not sure fishtankz does.

Also, 2 months' play is far from enough to assume you're a winner at a limit unless you're doing >5bb/100 over that period.

fwiw theory is one of my stronger areas, and also a weakness vs aggro regs who bluff too much.
wrt. what I've done. I took 4 hours of coaching last month. And i.e I review all my HU matches hand to hand. I also work a lot with different programs (flopz/equilab) etc.
I know there might be a perspective issue. What makes sense to you doesn't necessarily make sense to others.
prob not a secret based on the graph that I don't.

cheers
been looking for the "secret to success" wrt. red line, but haven't found it yet. I know there are some big winners with negative red line (ishter + the 7bb/100 guy (JonIrenicus??))

I would never claim to be +EV at Stars if it wasn't for the fish. I can still look at the player pool even at 1k and I have good understanding of what everyone is doing. Then you take this knowledge to euro sites, it's hard to expect you would be -EV vs weaker regs.


Overall it's just really hard to understand why would I suck so so much. Like really suck, be very bad player. Maybe I have some strengths. Perhaps this month I haven't been able to use those strengths, I've had to deal with my weaknesses. who knows. Cheers everyone.

Maybe this will clear up.
6m/FR results:
If you take the 10k day out of it, I've been like -8evbb/100

HU results:

This seems very contradictory to me. If it's high variance then 2 months is not a good sample size.

^^
I meant my past 6m/FR results with the bolded part.
Not sure if I'll ever win at HU

And obviously we need to add RB to the graphs. RB adds maybe ~3bb/100 to my winrate.

Going to play lower limits today in order to get some momentum going. I don't care if there's big whale at 400+. Have to resist the temptation.

I have some ideas what to work on. The big picture is still quite unclear wrt. what I'm doing wrong. It's clear based on the graph that I don't bet and call enough. Sometimes rightfully so... It's a big equation.
We'll see.

Some more hands from yesterday. These are all spots where I fold post-flop.

h1: flatting/sqz both decent. Think post-flop is good too? Frustrating when aggro fish does this over and over again (probe bet river)

iPoker - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 40 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
SB: 365.55 BB (VPIP: 59.08, PFR: 31.95, 3Bet Preflop: 10.48, Hands: 468)
Hero (BB): 207.33 BB
UTG: 117.09 BB (VPIP: 27.47, PFR: 20.98, 3Bet Preflop: 10.39, Hands: 2,250)
MP: 136.61 BB (VPIP: 26.51, PFR: 21.40, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 218)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.87, PFR: 23.24, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 143)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 13 BB, MP calls 10 BB, SB calls 10 BB

Flop: (39 BB, 3 players) 2 2 A
SB checks, Hero bets 23 BB, fold, SB calls 23 BB

Turn: (85 BB, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (85 BB, 2 players) 9
SB bets 32 BB, fold

SB wins 116.6 BB

h2: think betting is the only way to win the pot. reg is capped, so I'm mainly looking to get fish out of the way. It's closer to a fold than a call imo

PokerStars - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100.05 BB (VPIP: 31.45, PFR: 22.97, 3Bet Preflop: 15.32, Hands: 288)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.72, PFR: 17.64, 3Bet Preflop: 8.66, Hands: 1,526)
BB: 122.52 BB (VPIP: 61.90, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 42)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 31.76, PFR: 18.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 87)
MP: 201.28 BB (VPIP: 32.25, PFR: 20.33, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 380)
Hero (CO): 182.96 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 9

UTG raises to 2.56 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.56 BB, BTN raises to 11.5 BB, fold, BB calls 10.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.94 BB

Flop: (37.56 BB, 3 players) 3 Q 5
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (37.56 BB, 3 players) 8
BB checks, Hero bets 20 BB, fold, BB raises to 43 BB, fold

BB wins 77.34 BB

h3: think ppl wouldn't bluff here but it's nice if they do. should maybe call it off, but im quite nitty in these spots

Microgaming - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 254.42 BB
BB: 119.65 BB (VPIP: 53.73, PFR: 40.30, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 71)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q J

Hero raises to 2 BB, BB raises to 7 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Flop: (14 BB, 2 players) 2 Q 9
BB bets 9.5 BB, Hero calls 9.5 BB

Turn: (33 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (33 BB, 2 players) 4
BB checks, Hero bets 13 BB, BB raises to 55 BB, fold

BB wins 100.8 BB

h4: this was very close vs the golo guy. vs that sizing we can't be folding much. my inner nit won this one, but I think we should call.

PokerStars - $10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 255.07 BB (VPIP: 31.41, PFR: 23.34, 3Bet Preflop: 10.40, Hands: 353)
UTG: 109 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 7.88, Hands: 421)
Hero (MP): 143.67 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 30.66, PFR: 20.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.32, Hands: 1,167)
BTN: 251.8 BB (VPIP: 77.05, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 9.46, Hands: 123)
SB: 109.19 BB (VPIP: 26.95, PFR: 19.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.39, Hands: 2,631)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 4 5 8
Hero checks, CO bets 5.95 BB, Hero calls 5.95 BB

Turn: (31.4 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, CO bets 14.41 BB, Hero calls 14.41 BB

River: (60.22 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, CO bets 18.58 BB, fold

CO wins 59.92 BB

h5: vs the aggro fish. I think he's uncapped wrt. Ax so probably gotta fold.
someone tell me if fish float KdTx KdJx QdX and then turn them into a bluff, and we should call

iPoker - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 40 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 414.15 BB (VPIP: 58.79, PFR: 31.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.33, Hands: 472)
Hero (MP): 170.83 BB
CO: 114.09 BB (VPIP: 27.54, PFR: 21.03, 3Bet Preflop: 10.37, Hands: 2,259)
BTN: 126.21 BB (VPIP: 26.94, PFR: 21.92, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 222)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 28.77, PFR: 23.29, 3Bet Preflop: 3.64, Hands: 147)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) A 2 8
UTG checks, Hero bets 14 BB, UTG calls 14 BB

Turn: (49.5 BB, 2 players) 7
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (49.5 BB, 2 players) 3
UTG bets 24.75 BB, fold

UTG wins 73.85 BB

h6: I don't think he would bet loose mw. I don't typically xb turn with 8x so I guess we gotta fold. Raising is an option tho, but I think bet/bet/bet > raising with this line.

Microgaming - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 185.28 BB (VPIP: 31.74, PFR: 19.61, 3Bet Preflop: 7.90, Hands: 63,746)
Hero (BTN): 145.6 BB
SB: 146.97 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 19.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.88, Hands: 58,052)
BB: 229.35 BB (VPIP: 31.31, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.86, Hands: 56,908)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 5

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, BB calls 6 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 3 players) 8 5 T
SB bets 15.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 15.5 BB

Turn: (52 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (52 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 34.5 BB, fold

SB wins 86.2 BB

h7: possible bluff catch vs fish.

PokerStars - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 120.81 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 23.11, 3Bet Preflop: 16.04, Hands: 269)
BB: 106.38 BB (VPIP: 24.83, PFR: 17.73, 3Bet Preflop: 8.79, Hands: 1,507)
UTG: 52.38 BB (VPIP: 60.87, PFR: 34.78, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 23)
MP: 113.06 BB (VPIP: 28.21, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
CO: 182.37 BB (VPIP: 33.70, PFR: 21.11, 3Bet Preflop: 11.30, Hands: 278)
Hero (BTN): 116.69 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 8 BB, fold

Flop: (23.5 BB, 2 players) 9 3 7
UTG checks, Hero bets 9.78 BB, UTG calls 9.78 BB

Turn: (43.05 BB, 2 players) 2
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (43.05 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG bets 32.6 BB and is all-in, fold

UTG wins 42.83 BB

h8: think this is a close call because I would expect him to start checking w his overpairs. Did not understand how wide his range can be. bad fold imo. normally I don't fold TP but this seemed close enough, but it's not.

Microgaming - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 173.38 BB
Hero (BTN): 120.1 BB
SB: 188.47 BB
BB: 224.35 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q J

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 2 players) 8 6 J
SB bets 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 7
SB bets 26 BB, fold

SB wins 61.7 BB

h9: one hand where I called down, because I think fish can bluff wide w this line. JTo QTo w/e

Microgaming - €10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 233.28 BB (VPIP: 31.74, PFR: 19.60, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 63,735)
Hero (BB): 160.1 BB
CO: 148.97 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 19.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.88, Hands: 58,041)
BTN: 166.05 BB (VPIP: 31.31, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.86, Hands: 56,897)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 3

fold, fold, SB raises to 3.5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 7 2 4
SB bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (14 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Hand 1) I don't like this cbet with our holdings tbh. I also think that if we're going to cbet our sizing should be smaller

hand 2) I play the same

hand 3) I think we have to bet/call here, we have enough bluffs and also thinner value bets that we can bet/fold

hand 4) Probably play the same but vs golo never getting hu in a hand with him in the first place is the most +ev thing to do.

hand 5) I probably don't cbet flop as played. May as well toss a coin on river since you will never know where you're at vs aggro fish with this line. If he's aggro I am very happy checking back flop to call a lot of turn and river bets.

Hand 6) probably bet turn when checked to with a large proportion of our rnge.

hand 7) Same problem as hand 5, you're not polarised enough with your cbetting, you're merging hands that have showdown value and getting into silly spots where you bet flop as a weird value/bluff then check turn cause you're not sure where you are when they call flop, and finally are completely lost range wise when they bet river. This is also apparent in your hu game too and seems to be a running theme in some of these hands. It's not necessarily a leak, some guys crush when merging everything (some high stakes russians) but I get the feeling that you make 100 hero calls a day and it just doesn't seem to make any sense to me.

Hand 8) In game I usually call but I actually think it's a good spot to fold. We have a ton of hands that we will prefer to continue with on turn than this, so seems good.

Hand 9) probably fine

H1: flatting is some much better than 3betting imo. I get that your trying to iso the fish here but JTs plays amazingly 3way and getting 4b sucks so much

H2: I think 3betting T9s vs the fish is better than just flatting on the cut off

H3: std

H4: I think is either a shove or a fold on the river

H5: check back the flop, I don't like you cbet size either

H6: fine

H7: I much prefer check the flop, we getting bluffed off our equity to much when he just decides c/jams XhX

H8: yeh pretty clear turn call

JTcc w/ the wide fish in SB I think squeezing and playing vs the fish HU very often is going to be good (call obv. good too), but not sure about the c-bet. Probably should just check and bluff turn or river

T9cc I think is a very clear 3b or fold given positions and players left to act.

Cheers for the feedback.
Main thing to take away: Cbet sizings + board texture 3bp.
I have to say about the first hand. the aggro fish would nearly always bet when you check back the flop, so best way to exploit that is to bet the flop ourselves and hope that he folds. Probe betting from aggro fish is the most frustrating thing ever. He had 36% FTCB, so I obviously want to get value when ever I have something. I xb something like A2 weak Ax TP since it's more valuable to get a bluff from him. I'm maybe a bit paranoid in this regards, but I've tried to figure out just how wide fish float flops.
Playing vs wide range is great, but you have to learn how to exploit that, which I think is the key to success vs fish.
I like to bluff catch/heroC wide vs fish. On the flop I'm looking for folds. Fish have wide range for calling 3-bets, so on monotone board there should be a lot of fold equity. Hand selection maybe not the best tho, but I think vs fish we can bluff this board.
If he bluffs all KhJx KhQx KhTx QhJx ThJx and doesn't vb thinly, we would have a call imo.

@Broken
reason for cold calling T9s is that there was a 60 VPIP fish in the BB. Being in the CO we can also play back vs a sqz, so cold calling is reasonable.

In fairness, i didn't really look at your pf play, agree with the others about 3 betting T9s hand, JTs is fine. Disagree with folding the Js being standard though, In fact that statement has to be wrong. If this was true than you're saying we only have a bet/calling range of nuts? I'm sorry but we've got a lot of hands that we are value betting the river with here, we also have a decent amount of hands that we will bluff the river too. you will be hugely exploitable if your calling range is only nut flushes. I just can't see that ever being correct.

It's a different type of bluff when your opponent could have the nuts. It takes more guts to pull it off (bluffing into an uncapped range)
so there's probably some kind of psychological fear of not bluffing the spot. I'm also struggling to figure out which hands he should bluff. I think mid stakes regs don't just bluff ATC, there's some logic behind the bluff.
Main reason why I think it should be a call is my sizing. I'm trying to rep a bluff/thin vb with this sizing, think I'd take different sizing w/ As. Having 2 sizings for bluffs seems a little weird tho, so maybe I bet As this sizing too. It seems like he cant have much OTR...

SB: 233.28 BB (VPIP: 31.74, PFR: 19.60, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 63,735)
Hero (BB): 160.1 BB
CO: 148.97 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 19.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.88, Hands: 58,041)
BTN: 166.05 BB (VPIP: 31.31, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.86, Hands: 56,897)

something suspicious here?

guessing its something to do with anonymous tables?

wow if not.

anonymous tables
those are overall stats for every player who has taken seat on seat 1, seat 2 etc.
I don't believe in buying hand histories anyways, at least if you play on games that will evolve over time.

H1 half pot accomplishes the same as 2/3 sizing wrt folding out very weak stuff. Also think we rarely want to use this sizing with any parts of our value range.

H2 Looks good, also hard to imagine over calling the 3b isn't the best play.

H3 Bet/call he competent. Bet/fold a good exploit vs fish and weak regs.

H4. Meh. Call and fold EV going to be close, don't mind being nitty.

H5. Either cbet 1/3 here or check back. 2/3 flop is just not a good game plan on this texture with relevant positions.

H6. Raise flop. Ranges are super close on this flop, we probably have a slight advantage. This seems like one of the nut combos to raise.

H7. Checking back flop and calling turn is probably better. As played, I think river is a call.

H8. Seems like this hand should be in our call turn/fold river range UI.

H9. Good.

Sorry for quoting, on my phone and couldn't check the hands.

^^ Cheers, I'll check tomorrow.
Just a quick results update. Few coolers, played decent. Need to keep the amount of tables under control, otherwise decent day. I'm playing these lower limits (100-200) with a lot more aggressive mindset. I have the skill advantage so there's a lot of 3-betting.
This grind will continue for a while until I'm out of the hole and have gained my confidence back.

Reason why you can have high wr at 100nl. Rarely happens at 400+ (vs reg I assume)

Microgaming - €1 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 148.37 BB (VPIP: 31.96, PFR: 19.68, 3Bet Preflop: 8.30, Hands: 60,364)
Hero (BTN): 134.5 BB
SB: 101.78 BB (VPIP: 31.22, PFR: 19.44, 3Bet Preflop: 7.72, Hands: 57,553)
BB: 122.22 BB (VPIP: 31.34, PFR: 19.68, 3Bet Preflop: 7.86, Hands: 57,252)
UTG: 39.59 BB (VPIP: 30.50, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 7.12, Hands: 4,980)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 7 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) Q 3 5
SB bets 8.5 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 4
SB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

River: (72 BB, 2 players) J
SB bets 66.28 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 65.78 BB

after preflop I don't see a whole lot wrong with villain's line there, he just smashed into the top of your range.

Not a huge fan of pre w/ regards to hand choice + sizing, but yeah post flop is whatever imo, not the greatest river to bluff but flop + turn is OK