I feel like I haven't posted any hands in forever. Here's a really standard one with some intermediate-level analysis:
I raise to $20 with K
Q
from UTG, gets called by villain in UTG+2 and 2 others. 200bb deep. Villain has 3-bet me with 54s earlier this session and was forced to call a shortstacker's shove but other than that he's actually been pretty quiet and tight. He's a ~30 year old asian, never seen him before and I assume he's a recreational player. My image is a very good player who's opening a lot and running over the table.
Flop Q
7
3
, pot $80
I bet $60, V calls, everyone else folds. Standard value bet.
Turn 8
, pot $200
I bet $140, V calls. Standard value bet.
River A
, pot $480
I check, V bets $400, I call. He says he has a three, I show and he mucks.
OK, so on the river. Let's consider all possible ways I could be beat.
1. What spades can he have here? Preflop/flop action I think is the most significant to answer this question- on the flop if he has 2 spades it's either exactly QsJs or KsQs. Exactly 2 combos is negligible- discounting QQ, he has 6 combos of sets which are super rare, so he has 2 spades only 1/3 as often as he has a set- in other words, basically never. I don't think this guy is calling with 7s6s on the flop, or QsTs preflop but even then, two more exact combos is negligible. Finally, you can even discount those two combos because he would likely raise on the turn with them.
2. Did he already have me beat on the turn? ? Well, considering he calls the flop, that would be exactly 77, 44, and *maybe* AQ but I think he 3-bets me preflop with that. Again, not only is there an extremely small number of combos, it's very likely he raises these hands on either the flop or turn. So I assume when he flats my turn bet on a board with two possible flush draws and possible straight draws, I have the best hand nearly 100% of the time (note that very good regs you have history with will mix it up, but that's something completely different than the scope of this post).
3. Did he bink an Ace on the river? What hands can he have that did that? Only Ax of clubs. Again, looking at a preflop range, AcJc and AcTc are definitely there, and the others some percent of the time. Even if we add every single Acxc combo 100% there's only about 10 (discounting AcKc and the blocked ones). The most important factor here though is his betsizing. It's insanely large, and it really doesn't look like he's going for thin value with just top pair- he's repping spades.
OK so, given the above, this is a very easy river call given that he's a very straightforward/predictable recreational player who has shown that he is capable of bluffing.
Cheers.