Hey man, looks like good thread I will have to read through. Liked your analysis and write-up on the above hand. Looking to play 5/5 - 5/10 PLO and NLH live in the LA area when I have the proper roll.

That's awesome you left a 6 figure job to pursue your passions. If your in the LA area maybe we can chat/meetup sometime.

-Shane

Yes, it's true that bluffraising is even more rare than the chance that he would "thin" value raise with TT on a 3-flush board (on top of how rare it would be for him to even have it combinatorically), or to raise a flush for that sizing (again, on top of how rare it would be for him to even have one).

However, I don't think it is even close to over 4.5 times more rare, so I strongly feel that a call for $300 to win $1400 here is our best option.

Basically the easiest way to think about it is this. When we make a GTO betsizing, we are indifferent to whether our opponent calls or folds vs. our entire range- either way, our EV is exactly the same.

Therefore when we model our EV, it's typically easier to just assume our opponent folds every single time (yielding the same results). When we look at it like this, it is clear that being allowed to add in more bluffs to complement our limited amount of value hands is an advantage.

Thanks for the comments everyone, I'll be in LA soon and always feel free to let me know if anything is unclear!

Hey, good luck with everything this year. When will you be able to elaborate on the "stuff under wraps"? Are you "working" somewhere now since you only play poker for ~16 to 20 hours per week? Since 2015 has officially concluded, can you give any numbers for the year (gross earnings for poker, expenses, misc)?

Epic.

Ok thanks!

Yo Aesah how has the poker gone for you seeing as its nearly four years on since you made this post?

^ Honestly my enjoyment of poker fluctuates pretty wildly throughout the years, as evidenced by this thread :P right now I'm pretty busy with other work though so I'm only in the mood to play poker sporadically but I typically have fun as long as the table is social.

Thanks for the comments guys

What a perfect runout here. Hero's image is LAG pro. 5/5 NLHE $1300 effective. Tilted spazzy villain limp EP, 1 limp LP, I check SB with 87, rec player in BB check.

Flop 653, pot $20
I check, BB bet $5, villain raise to $20, LP player folds, I raise to $60, BB fold, villain calls quickly.

Turn 4, pot $145
I bet $105, villain calls.

River 7, pot $355
I bet $600, villain tank calls, says he had 44 (plausible).

I considered either c/r'ing river or underbetting to induce a raise, but wasn't sure if villain was in the mood to try to get me off a chop.

~~~~~~~~~~

In LA at the moment

Previous hand was cute in how the stars aligned, but fairly boring from an analytical perspective. Here's a simple one that is much more interesting:

5/T NLHE $1700 effective. Villain is a weaker rec player who is generally pretty tight but I've seen him limp/raise 44 from EP vs. me (probably because he thinks I raise too much) as well as a couple other unusual plays. Decent ABC player open EP to $30, I $90 with AK, villain cold call in blinds, EP player folds.

Flop J97, pot $225
Checks through.

Turn K, pot $225
Villain leads $90, I call.

River J, pot $405
Villain thinks briefly and leads $500, me?

ez fold IMO

Renting out your place in SD?
Is other work back to Real estate or doing something else?

Wait, you play holdem?

Nah real estate was a good learning experience, but completely unsuited for me

any large downswings have been documented in the thread. none recently

Thanks for the comments friends!

I'm pretty heavily discounting any Jx due to preflop action, not entirely sure if he even calls with AJs here. For the same reason, discounting 2p and recognizing that there are very few flush combos. I feel like his small turn sizing on a texture where 12 cards will bring a one-liner and 8 more cards will bring a flush is very unlikely for sets.

Furthermore, he may consider it unlikely for me to check flop with any jack or flush draw so my absolute hand strength on this river should be weak, thus on level 1, his large betsizing would be more indicative that he does not want a call.

All that being said, I can't think of enough hands he would be compelled to bluff with on the river, so I ended up folding but felt it was a pretty close decision at the time.

Generally pretty tight but weaker rec players have AcKc in this spot 75%+.

He's unlikely betting the turn like that (sizing) w/o the K + FD.

Overbets are so player dependent. Yesteday live nit bet 90 into 70 on K76dd 8c 9s and I ch folded KQo after betting twice smalish SB vs BB. Should have thought more if he wanted a call or not. He didn't. He had QJdd.

Your hand looks like a AK alot. Here I think he wants to get called alot so I like the fold

Ya it's definitely hard to say without more detailed reads, and "population tendencies" doesn't really kick in either for spots like this that are so rare. I'll post another overbet hand I played. Not super interesting in terms of decisions but definitely bizarre.

5/5 NLHE. Unknown ~25 year old white guy who seems recreational limps UTG, hero raise $25 with A3 in CO, only UTG calls. $900 effective.

Flop JT3, pot $60
UTG checks, hero bets $40, UTG calls.

Turn J, pot $140
Checks through.

River 3, pot $140
Villain leads $300, hero calls. Villain announces Ace high.

Preflop/flop are on the looser side of course but more than fine. On the river I think I fold if I don't hit the 3x just in case he's doing something goofy with a small pair, which is always somewhat of a concern facing UTG limp/callers even considering flop action (my image induces light calls). I'm not giving him credit for much Jx in his UTG limp/call range so on this nice river card, I consider it a clear call even though I had to think for awhile in game.

In other news I will be on pokersesh with limon next week.

Pot offers you 40%. You would have to believe that he does this with a Jx 60% of the time. Looks more like a random bluff or trying to fold out split at least 40% of the time or alot more often.

In person?

Recently was asked about QQ facing a tight 3-bet range. I wrote this some time ago but here's a simplistic model to help you guys understand what to do and why.

5/5 NLHE. 2 limps, Hero raises to $30 with QQ, ABC pro on BTN 3 bets to $100, folds to hero. $460 starting stacks. Villain will only call a ship with AA/KK. Hero's play?

OK first we want to compare folding to shipping (because it's easy).

Villain will only call a ship with AA/KK, which we have ~18.2% equity against (.182 * 940 = ~$170 equity in the pot when called). So when we get called we lose $430 - $170 = $260 on average. We win $150 when not called. So let's call the percent that villain folds to be F, EV of shipping is:

EV = [F] * 150 + [1-F] (-$260) = 150F -260 +260F = 410F - 260

Because EV of us folding is 0, we need villain to fold at least 260/410 = ~63.4% of the time for a ship to be better than folding.

Thus, shipping is profitable if his 12 combos of AA/KK accounts for less than 1 - 63.4 = ~36.6% of his entire range. So since 12/.366 = 32.8, it follows that shipping is profitable if he 3-bets at least 33 combos of hands. AK/JJ+ is 35 combos- so if this is villain's EXACT 3-bet range, then shipping is better than folding.

Keep in mind this is a simplified model and there are many other variables that can affect it. For example, if villain ever flats AA or KK for deception, then we can profitably ship against a range that is (somehow) even tighter than AK/JJ+. However, if villain calls our ship with AK, then we can obviously see that we need him to be wider than AK/JJ+ to profitably ship (since he's playing more correctly). How much wider? OK let's find out.

Exact same analysis as before. We have 39.9% equity ($375) when our ship is called now. So now we lose $55 when called. So exact same formula:

EV = [F] * 150 + [1-F] (-$55) = 150F -55 +55F = 205F - 55

We need villain to fold 26.8% of the time. AK/AA/KK are 28 combos, which must account for 73.2% of his 3-bet range. In other words, we can profitably ship if villain 3-bets at least 39 combos- surprisingly, not that much more! Again, given that AK/JJ+ is 35 combos already, against someone who we suspect is even remotely capable of 3-betting light, or even 3-betting a value range as tight as AK/TT+, then shipping is clearly better than folding if villain only calls with AK/AA/KK.

OK so now we have proved shipping is better than folding in our model. Intuitively though, calling and playing OOP is clearly the best option. Because the EV of calling is a function of a million more factors than the analysis that I just did, I'm not going to attempt to solve it here. First of all a more detailed analysis of villain's range is very important- whether he 3-bets a merged range as wide as AJo, whether he 3-bets some polarized blocker bluffs (A2s), how often he cbets on a K75r board with air (A2s) or weak SDV (JJ), etc. Just for one example, these factors will all determine whether we choose to check/continue or check/fold on a K-high board.

Without going into excruciating detail, our best option against most straightforward villains seems to be to call the 3-bet, then check/raise on flops without an A or K, and c/f on A-high or K-high flops, which is fairly intuitive and what many players already do in this situation (very unfortunately so. I hate it when the intuitive play is the correct one!)

Glad to see you are back posting man. You coming to Vegas for WSOP?

95% chance I do

On Pokersesh tonight w limon

Errr, it's an online show... you mean like with video? I can I suppose