gl!

You weren't kidding - he just got his KK cracked to bubble the FT.

gg man, silly game

Thanks for the support guys, kinda dissapointing.
always some drunk russian guy - we did what we could.
Value was great obv with 12 sitouts to start with.

thanks once again!!

For those who are wondering what we had when guy turned over Q9 in blind vs blind spot.

Limpcalled J8s: check-call, donk, check call JT228

how much $ did u end up selling?

nearly 40%, sold today almost as much as previous days all toghether.

Dont know what it is with people always buying last minute.
In a way Im glad this is over. Comfortably rolled for 200, feel pretty confident too.
This may mean an end to this thread. Will have to think about it.
If I had like 100k hands more to go I may consider finishing but having played only
50k-ish im not sure Im doing myself a favor.

Maybe reopen just some blog and continue there with all the 200z endevours
- this time I actually felt very nice within 2p2.

Keep blogging!!


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announcement:

At the very beginning of the tournament the mod said we all had won a ticket to some
$1050 scoop event.
I cant find the ticket anywhere in the ticket-section, and im also not auto-regged to any
tournament atm. I asked the stars support to look into it.
In case I did win that ticket - everybody that had shares in this one wil have the SAME
shares in the upcoming event, thats the least I can do, but lets wait and see what the support
says first.


https://i.gyazo.com/00f8b4aec80e1572...6c7584055d.png

when that was annoncued,it also said that ticket will be on your account by 1400 tommorow

Last incarnation of the SNE ITT

GG man, must have been a fun feeling regardless of outcome.

Yea, at first there is some dissapointment but quite quickly u realize u did all that was in ur power.

As for the experience itself I surprised myself a lot.
For days the tension has been building and I honestly started worrying
- how am I going to take it once it starts.
Must say, once the tournament started I was ALL FOCUS.
No slightest room for any kind of emotion/concern.
Cant remember I've ever been this "sober", and calm - and thats what surprised me the most.
Knowing I can perform under these circumstances gives me an enormous confidence boost.

Also -got a lot of love from railers/investors.. Thats very hard to accomplish in the poker community in general - be it online, or live.
That makes me happy.

Ticket been credited, will just have to choose some of the $1050 events>
Suggestions?




Lets share a hand from today.
This may look horrendous but I think I can explain why Its perfectly logical to me.

in for explanation

Not sure what I'd like to see more - villains facial expression in this instance or if he had decided to protect, bluff, bluff 2h2d.

Actually makes sense if you think about it, he isn't really betting anything else than a bluff on the river (unles KQss I guess, but you block K and Qx, so..), don't see how he thinks he can get value from worse on the river. I don't think I'd call this down readless, but if I got some proper notes I'd do the same prob. gj

Ill comment on that KQo hand bit later,
meanwhile another weird ass hand.

The KQo hand analysis.

We cant be sure about villains range (seemed very laggy).
Lets give him about 9% flatting (BTN vs MP) range with the corresponding weights.
Thats some 119combos.



with card removal OTF that leaves him about 108 combos




FLOP

Assume villain stabs:
-All the made hands
-All the draws (fdraws, gutters, oesd)
-All non-ace high backdoor fdraws with 2 overs



-green triangle spades only
-blue triangle spades and clubs

So he bets a total of 67 combos.


TURN

On the turn it gets interesting. The turn drastically decreases the amount
of villains valuebets.

-We dont expect pairs lower than the Jack to 2nd barrel.
-He may continue with the few KQo that contain a spade.
-He continues with all the flushes + gutters, few potential overpairs, and
some Jx, and lets add KcQc as one of the pure bluffs.




-green triangle spades only
-blue triangle spades and clubs
-orange triangle all containing a spade

Suddenly he is down to 27,5 combos.

RIVER

The river is very bad as well for majority of villains valuebetting range.
Suddenly he has zero nutflushes (that he had on the turn)
The 30% QQ we gave him only half of it vbets.
The 76s combos do not valuebet any more.
The T9ss does not valuebet
The suited Jx of clubs does not valuebet.
We assume he gives up the KcQc (cant have it as matter of fact for we hold it)

So what are his valuebets? What are the bluffs?
Bluffs:
Lets look into 98s, 87s combos. The spades obv dont vBet leaving him with
even more bluffs on turn. Hearts, diamodns, clubs seem to be most likely
bluffing candidates.
Vbets:
KQ (with a spade), KQss, KTss, QTss, and all the boats




-green triangle spades only
-blue triangle spades and clubs
-orange triangle all containing a spade


OTR villain has about 17 combos


We need 25% equity and our hand has 28% equity vs that range.

Ive been even kind to give villain 10% KK+, 30% QQ, 50% JJ..
If he does not have these in his flatting range than he has even more
bluffs to start with.
Also I assumed that villain has only 75% of 98s, 87s in his flatting range
and that he 3bets the remainig 25%. If he flats em all without 3betting
any - our call becomes much better.

I wasnt sure either if this was a good call or not (turn prolly very dubious)
but I picked this combo since it seems to block the fewest bluffs (except KcQc).


What do u think?

I normally wont end up 3betting this combo that much here, nor 2barreling it but I had specific reasons this time.

The luck is with the brave!
His line obv sucks, turn sucks even more - but no hero folds vs heavy spewtards.

I think the river equity calculations to determine if a hand is a call or not is simply false from a theoretical perspective. MDF calculations make more sense.

Interesting analyse in general though and I agree that villain might be overbluffing. Nice call!

I noticed a mistake OTR as well. I did not exclude the 98ss, 87ss
out of villains range when looking at how KQ does against it.
Thats why these now counted as valuebet Him having 2 valuecombos
less in his range favors the call even more.

Without these our equity goes up to 32% assuming he bets all these OTR



Blue triangle, all non-spade combos
Green triangle, only spade combos
Orange containing a spade only

Thank you, I may look how pio handles this spot - but im 100% sure it wont back me up for it assumes villains play optimally too.
Either way - call seems not crazy as it appears at first sight.
With this sizing villain needs at least 80% vlauebets for our call to become bad.

I always read your thread when I wanna be informed of how much of a nit I am


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Thanks for in depth analysis of KQ hand. Even tho I won't end up making such calls any time soon it's amazing to see how easy it is for him to overbluff this spot in which at first glance he shouldn't have many bluffs on. Nh

+1