The washing machine was messed up doing laundry so I'm waiting for my sheets to dry and reviewing some spots. I wonder if I'm over-bluffing in spots like this:
This was deepish in big 16 and this villain had a high c-bet % around 80% and a high check fold % I think 70% iirc.
He's really capped on this runout he always c-bets 76s if he even opens that and JTs and I don't think he raises 33, but maybe 55 and 98s and always 99, 88. I wonder how wide I should be leading if I nodelocked his checking range to include just 99, 88 and ace highs then on the river 99, 88, maybe 55 and back door flushdraws like KQh, Axh. I would value bet all two pairs the same way and I'm defending down to 53s 95o, 98o Q9o and probably leading Q9o on turn as well so I have tons of value. I'm too tired to think of all the combos of each but I think I can bluff this run out a ton if I'm value betting all those. I wonder what the best hands to use as bluffs are. I would check A6-A7 if I don't 3b jam them pre and I don't have AT-AJ in my range. I don't think those are good hands to bluff anyway since they block the ace high range I'm trying to get to fold. I wouldn't bluff T9, J9 so using hands with a blocker to sets doesn't seem relevant. I guess just having J7, J6, T7, T6 are the best bluff hands. Villain c-bets the straights and stuff so those blockers don't matter for blocking his straight draws but maybe he hero calls ace high with his AT, AJ more often since he blocks the straight so having the blockers to his hero calls is good. These are running thoughts sorry but I guess next would be KJ,KT, K6, K7 with no hearts so maybe it's okay to lead turn and shove river here.
I remember I barreled off in another spot kinda similar but on a final table and I'm not sure if it's ICM suicide. I raised 97o on button as chipleader I think BB defended. He's a good player I think defending pretty wide. Flop was J86 I cbet big, turn Q I barrel big and river was a 4 and I shoved. J86Q4 I have no real bluffs on this runout 75 gets there, T9 gets there, I sometimes check back KT on the flop so I think it was fine to barrel off here but just because it's a final table I wonder if I should give up on river. He called with J8s and I was the shorty after and busted shortly after.
If an ICM expert reads this let me know what you think. I'm gonna go hard Fri/Sat and hopefully half of Sunday but it's my sisters 30th bday so I'll see how it goes. I gotta review a bunch next week more indepth.