Post 6: February 21-27
Sprinting Through March

*March will probably be my biggest month of the year for poker other than June. In addition to the events I noted in my last post, I also noticed theres a $1675 WSOPC event the weekend I’m in AC. I’m not going to have a chance to play satellites to this, so I decided Saturday I’m gonna fire into it if I make the $1675 in poker P&L between now and then (I won $340 Sunday so I’m $1335 away). In addition, I’m really leaning toward direct buying into the CPC main if I don’t qualify—the field is always so soft and there are main event seats added to the prize pool.

*After I get back from Vegas on the 26th, it’s probably a good idea to quit playing so much and hit the lab for most of April

*More motivation for grinding this March: I’m in the market for a car. I’m most likely getting something like this ( http://goo.gl/MhzLD0 ) but if I spike a score I’m looking at something more like this ( http://goo.gl/0QRFYS )

*Now stuck $2.5k for the year in sports betting. I’m not the worlds biggest college hoops fan but March Madness seems like a great time to get it back. I fired in $600 in the HSNL squares pool, am getting in a Calcutta with some friends (won about $700 in this last year), and plan to go hard on sweet 16 betting when I get to Vegas

*I still can’t win a coinflip in a tournament, oh well

Hands

HAND 1

1/2 cash game @ Horseshoe. I start hand with $255

PREFLOP: I open to $8 UTG+1 with red AA, MP calls, everyone else folds.

MP is a white guy in his mid-20s, has over $2k in his stack and has been playing fairly splashy. We played a funny hand earlier where I open-limped the button with 33, he made it $15 in the BB, I insta-shoved a short stack of $84, he called fairly quickly with 55 and held.

FLOP ($19): JT5 with 2 diamonds. I bet $12 MP calls.

TURN ($43): A of clubs. I bet $31, MP makes it $80, I shove for $235 total. MP tanks for 3 minutes and calls.

I don’t think any of my actions here were too controversial, this was just a fun hand. One possibly interesting part is that I Phil Hellmuth instashoved after he raised, announced all-in before he even finished counting out the chips for the raise. I was hoping he would think about how I insta-limpshoved the 33 before and put me on some sort of similar monkey play.

RIVER($513): Offsuit K. I table the aces and I’m good.

HAND 2

Same 1/2 cash game. I start hand with ~$500 and this is 4 hands after the previous hand

PREFLOP: 2 limps to me, I make it $13 on the button with AKo, EP calls

EP is a 20s Asian guy whos playing on the loose side, though not ridiculously so. He has me covered

FLOP ($31): KJ9 rainbow, check to me, I bet $18, call

TURN ($67): 5 completing the rainbow, check to me, $39, call

RIVER ($145): 3, check to me, I bet $155, villain tanks for 2 minutes and folds QJ faceup

Experiments in bet sizing: I went for the big bet because I thought he’d pay off with hands he was otherwise calling with, he rarely gets to this spot with >1 pair, and the big bet might make me look polarized and get some suspicious calls. I had just a little history with villain—we played a pot where he donked into me with middle set (first time ever I’ve gotten donked into with the nuts!!!!), I called, turned a bigger set and doubled up for about a $250 pot. He might snap it off if I take the standard line and bet $80, and I think I just got unlucky that he had exactly QJ here, but maybe I owned myself here?


Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Poker (+$240 / -$2,204)
*Live Tournament (-$210 / -$3,020)
*Live Cash (+$550 / +$992)
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$346)
*Online Cash (-$100 / +$170)

Algo Trading (+$3,546 / +$22,518)

Sports Betting (+$28 / -$2,531)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games (+$110 / -$404) – the $110 was won clearing promo chips at the Majestic Star. Also I ponied up for the Founders Card which will give me Diamond status (and a bunch of other perks) for $395 so no more playing pit games or VP to get there. My hope is that I can get good enough at counting in BJ to get it that way in 2018.

Total +$3,924 / +$16,869

Good luck, you might as well play in some bigger Nl cash games. 5-10 etc.

Thanks man. My plan is to only play with profits so I'll gamble in whatever game I've made 300 BBs worth of profit in. I'm up $992 in cash so far, so $2k away from 5-10.

Nevermind this, I just got a last minute ticket to SXSW which is infinitely more +EV from a career perspective. I'll make up for it some other time. Slight bummer since I really do like the CPC

Post 8: February 28-March 5
In a Slump?

After firing 2 bullets in Chicago Poker Classic Event #1 ($360 buyin) and coming up empty I’m now 1/13 for the year including satellites (0/11 on cash tournaments). Second bullet was particularly tough as I was probably chipleader for a brief moment with around 120 players left in my flight (57 cashed) and ended up going out about 30 players short of the money. Hand 1 below was shortly before the dinner break. I started the hand with 149k and if I had won, I would have gotten to about 195k. It was later announced that the chip leader on dinner break had 127k. After that, I lost a bunch of small pots and one medium pot (Hand 2), and due to the crappy structure I was sent packing cashless.

On the one hand, this sucks. On the other hand, I’ve no right to complain because I know going 1/13 in tournaments isn’t even close to the worst variance I can experience.

As I mentioned earlier, no poker for me next weekend since I’ll be in Austin. I failed to hit my P&L goal so I also won’t fire in the WSOPC event in Atlantic City. To stay sharp, I will plan to play a couple nights of MTTs on ACR between now and 3/22, when I will fly to Vegas, ship the Planet Hollywood Phamous tournament, and also go something around 6-1 in March Madness betting to get back in the black in poker & sports.

The good news is that I have tons of good material to blog about the next few weeks even with no poker. I played an awesome hand in the CPC that I can write an entire story about, but won’t discuss today because it has no (or very little) strategic content.

Hands

HAND 1

800/1600/200 in CPC Event #1, Button has around 50k to start hand, SB has 42k, I cover both

PREFLOP: Button opens to 3500, SB calls, I call with 96o

Button is a nitty donk. SB has been at the table a couple orbits, seems to know the circuit grinders at the table. I would consider folding 96o here to an open raiser I deemed to be competent, but against this particular opener it’s a clear call.

FLOP (12,300): 965 with 2 spades and 1 diamond. Checks around.

TURN (12,300): 5 of diamonds. Check to me, I bet 5k, button folds, SB makes it 15k, I shove. SB calls and shows 87 of spades.

Don’t love the checkraise. I tanked for a while on this one and thought it might be possible to fold since my range is uncapped. On the other hand, my betting range is also super wide and includes a bunch of flush draw/one pair/maybe even air hands, so I decided to go for it. Shove is clearly better than call since it allows me to realize most equity vs. pair+draw hands.

RIVER (90,300): Offsuit 3. I miss my 6 outer.


HAND 2

1k/2k/200. Same villain as hand 1. This time I have around 80k and he covers.

PREFLOP: SB limps, I check BB with KJo.

I play pretty tight with value raises in this spot. I try to keep SB vs BB pots small, since I think villains often spaz randomly in these spots, which accidentally makes their ranges balanced. Feel free to roast me for this check. I do think SB vs BB is one of the weakest parts of my full ring game.

FLOP (5,800): 973 rainbow, SB bets 3k, I call

TURN (11,800): J putting a flush draw out. SB checks, I bet 6k, SB calls

RIVER (23,800): Offsuit 4, SB checks, I bet 16k, SB tanks for over a minute and calls, shows J7

I bet bigger than usual since, again, I think tons of tournament players spaz in these spots and I think villain could put me on air. He even made a comment while tanking like “why so big?”. I have no idea WTF he is doing tanking with 2 pair here, was he maybe contemplating a shove? If not I think he’s crazy, and I also think he butchered the turn. Villain ended up running up a >250k stack by the time I busted which should have been good enough to get him in the top 25% of stacks entering day 2. GL to him.

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Poker (-$951 / -$3,155)
*Live Tournament (-$720 / -$3,740)
*Live Cash (-$231 / +$761)
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$346)
*Online Cash ($0 / +$170)

Algo Trading (+$1,288 / +$23,806)

Sports Betting (+$184 / -$2,347)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games ($0 / -$404)

Total +$538 / +$17,407

Post 9: March 6-15
My Best Hand Ever

I haven’t been gambling much recently so I’m gonna use this post to flash back to my favorite poker hand I’ve ever played. It’s February 2016, I’ve just started playing live poker again after a long time off, and I’m just getting to know the villains that frequent the Horseshoe Hammond. One guy in particular is there every time I’m in the room, seems to be a big LAG/action player, but always seems to have chips.

All details are a bit hazy on these hands but I’m approximating stack sizes best I can.

The first pot I ever play with him is in a $240 satellite to the CPC main event. Action folds to him in the SB, he open shoves 34 BBs, I call with QQ, he shows J2o and I hold. After the hand he goes nuts, talking about how I’m a nit and never play a hand, flabbergasted I woke up with QQ. I file this away for future reference

Next week, we’re playing another $240 satellite. 100/200/25, villain starts hand with around 9k, I have around 12k. I open to 500 in MP with 99, villain calls in SB. Flop 752 with 2 spades, I bet 800, villain calls. Turn offsuit J, c/c. River is 10 of spades. Villain shoves for about 6300.

I go into the tank and at first, of course, it seems like a clear fold despite the crazy villain. At a couple points I almost muck my cards. But then I start to reason…

*Villain thinks I’m a nit

*Villain is a maniac. It’s very likely he’s betting 100% of his range after I check back the turn and a scare card hits the river.

*However, the bet sizing is very possibly a big tell. If he has a flush or a set, I think it’s quite possible he’d make a normal sized bet to try to get paid. With air (and I think it’s very possible he gets here with air), he’s trying to maximize fold equity

After 2-3 minutes I say “Yeah, I think I’ve got to make a big call here” and toss a chip in. Villain says “good call” and tables 66. I double up and eventually win the satellite and a $2000 CPC seat.

Fun epilogue to the story. I’ve only played with villain twice since this incident. The most recent was in the $365 CPC event I mentioned last post. We are at 600/1200/200, Villain has 60k and I cover. I open to 3k UTG+1 with 77, villain makes it 9k UTG+3. Against most villains I’m probably mucking but against this guy I call, because I expect to get his stack very frequently when I flop a set, and I can make some big calls against him even when I don’t. Flop A72r. I check. He shoves for 51k, I make a Phil Hellmuth snap call, he shows AK, I hold. I’d like to think he remembered the above hand above and thought he was leveling me by shoving for what he thought was value, but it’s overwhelmingly likely he doesn’t remember me and is just a spewtard.

Anyway, not too much gambling recently but that’s all changing as I’m heading to AC Saturday-Monday, then Vegas on Wednesday-Sunday. Plan in AC is to play some craps with my buddy for his 30th birthday and try to get my average bet size up with CET to try to get some free rooms in Vegas for the summer. Plan in Vegas is to grind some donkaments and bet March Madness heavily.


Hands

None this time around


Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Poker (+$140 / -$3,015)
*Live Tournament (+$140 / -$3,600) (I got invited to a small stakes monthly tournament home game with some coworkers. Went about as well as expected financially and was a bunch of fun. Other than that no poker for me this time)
*Live Cash ($0 / +$761)
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$346)
*Online Cash ($0 / +$170)

Algo Trading (+$1,744 / +$25,550)

Sports Betting (+$21 / -$2,326)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games ($0 / -$404)

Total +$1,905 / +$19,295 (total was slightly off last time)

Post 9: March 16-20
Finally Some Degenning

This post will live up to half of the thread’s title. I was certainly a degenerate this weekend, but not too much of my gambling was +EV. I went to AC for a buddy’s 30th birthday and ran just about as pure as possible in craps. Started off betting $25 on the pass and $100 on the odds, and got to about $150/$600 at my most degenerate points. I brought about $4k to Atlantic City on Saturday morning, and many bets and Yuenglings later, went to bed around 5:30 AM with $9500 in my pocket.

Woke up Sunday and for the first time in my life, felt honestly sick of playing pit games. There was a $580 WSOP circuit event that I decided to fire into instead. I must report that even when I’m running like God in the pit, I still can’t win a coinflip in a donkament. There were I think 95 entries, 12 paid, and I battled all afternoon but ultimately busted around 25th getting about 16 BBs in on a resteal with 44 < AQo.

The P&L for this trip is going straight into my Vegas roll, and I’m about 52 hours away from takeoff, so I will be firing hard on the sweet 16 games starting Thursday. Am gonna play 1 poker tournament each day too.

Hands

HAND 1

100/200/25 in the $580 WSOP. I have around 12k and villain covers

PREFLOP: Folded to me on button, I make it 500 with QQ, villain flats in BB.

Villain is a 20s Asian guy who seems to know what he’s doing generally. Great spot for me and I’m not planning on doing much folding in this hand.

FLOP (1,300): 952 rainbow. Check to me, I bet 650, villain makes it 1625, I call.

I think this is totally standard? I briefly consider 3betting the flop simply because it looks so bluffy and livedonks show up with K9 or whatever a lot in this spot, and he might decide to hero, but I think calling the c/r is better.

TURN (4,550): Q completing the rainbow, checks around

Also standard I believe? I have the stone nuts against what I think is a pretty weak range (I think he has air a lot after he checks the turn).

RIVER (4,550): 3 of diamonds. Villain bets 2,625, I shove, villain goes in the tank and says “Now that I did not expect”. Ends up folding after ~2 minutes

This would be a weird line to take with air since (I think) my range looks like it should be able to call a river bet. I’m really having a tough time putting villain on a range. Maybe he bluffed the flop with QJ/QT and checked once he picked up showdown value?

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Poker (-$580 / -$3,595)
*Live Tournament (-$580 / -$4,180)
*Live Cash ($0 / +$761)
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$346)
*Online Cash ($0 / +$170)

Algo Trading (+$1,860 / +$27,410)

Sports Betting (+$708 / -$1,618)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games (+$5,480 / +$5,076)

Total +$7,468 / +$26,763

On the flight to Vegas. Due to my success last weekend I am bringing a bankroll of slightly under $12k this time, which is the biggest roll I think I've ever brought out. I'm gonna bet NCAA according to my buddy's model -- who knows if it actually has an edge but it crushed March Madness last year, and it spits out some bets with up to 20-30% Kellys, so we are gonna have some serious NCAA action. I intend to line shop pretty vigorously on this.

I've always liked this bet (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...ystem-1576900/) so I'm gonna bet this with a 10% Kelly as well.

I plan on posting all my sports betting tickets for the sweat.

Other than that the gambling will mostly be poker. First off will be firing in the Wynn daily tournament tomorrow. Let's get this.

P&L for trip so far -$305, battling in the Wynn daily $140 tournament now. Made the following sports bets for tonight

$1k on Xavier money line +320
$500 on gonzaga money line -160
$1100 on panthers under 5.5 -120
$790 on Wild under 5.5 -130

Still looking to bet more on gonzaga and on the Blues under

Good luck OP. Those algo trading profits look pretty insane.

$495 more on gonzaga -165

Thanks man, running way above expectation but appreciate it!

200 more on Xavier +300. Never got the blues bet down


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A clean sweep on the first 3 bets!!! Up about $1800 in sports betting so I'm completely freerolling on Xavier. Also 2nd out of 6 in chips in the Wynn daily with $2400 up top. Great day so far

Holy Christ, this doesn't suck. Up about $6800 today and about $11,400 since I left for AC on Saturday. God bless gambling


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ride the wave dude

The vicarious sweat was real last night. Congrats!

Algo trading is something that's always fascinated me. If you don't mind me asking op, where did you get your college degree and what did you major in?

Gl at the tables!

Thanks! I have an undergrad degree in Economics (with heavy emphasis on statistics) and Business Administration from UNC. I've recently kicked around the idea of getting a masters in statistics, but nothing yet.

Wow good stuff. If you don't mind me asking, how was the salary for derivatives trading? Were you a proprietary trader or mainly in a market making role? Cheers!

It was mostly market making and it was 65k but this was in 2008. Nowadays it'd probably be closer to 80k but I could never get hired as an Econ major now, they'd probably be looking for comp sci or engineering majors exclusively.

Battling again in the planet hollywood phamous tournament. Also plan on placing an extremely large wager on Kentucky as my only hoops bet of the day. Let's get it.

Well our model really likes Kentucky so I went ahead and bet the profits from the trip on the moneyline. $6524 to win $7738 let's ship it.

Oh and I busted the PH event level 6. Absurdly tough table draw.

I hate hedging usually but with action this big I had to fire in 1100 on ucla 2nd half -1.5 to win 1000. Also I screwed up the payouts on the last post-- made a bunch of different bets but I think I'm only getting 7300 or 7400 for a Kentucky win.

The obvious lesson from tonight is never hedge. I'm now up a hair shy of 13k on the trip, Viva Las Vegas.


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I think I may have gotten cut off at Will Hill??? I heard they do this pretty liberally with people who pick off their bad lines. I'd consider this a huge badge of honor.