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Old 04-08-2017, 11:13 PM   #51
PandaLife
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Re: Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

H1 is just a call down spot imo, I donít like turn raise. Might jam some rivers vs real stations but generally you are going to valuecut yourself here at 16z so call down is fine.

H2 is fine, I mean itís pretty obv he has overpairs with that flop size, but should be flipping in equity vs those so Iíd gamble too

H3 he definitely has most 4x (that calls pre) in his range by the river especially with a guy left to act behind and generally cus of in position. You should be careful about making these assumptions on villains game. As played river depends on villains stats and we should try to exploit them, obv passive fish wonít bluff (and can x back even Kx) so betting is best, against aggro fish I prefer 1/3 ish to induce or just bluffcatch by xcíing.

H4 facing these sizings is a bit weird with 2pr, but I still think on this dry of a board people wonít have many equity bluffs, and unless itís a whale the population at 16z doesnít triple like this with pure air. He is obv repping thin, but they usually have it so yeah.
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Old 04-12-2017, 08:45 PM   #52
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Re: Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

panda - h3 I'm surprised that you think a CO flatting range v a UTG open has that many 4x, I really only thought 44/54s/43s was reasonable. I get what you mean that by T/R villain has all possible 4x in his range, x'ing turn is probably best but can I really be folding to b/b on t/r if I check? Villain almost definitely checks back QQ/JJ/Tx/Kx on river so we lose lots of value against a big part of his perceived range.

Volume is stupid low rn, exam revision is taking up my time, not leaving a lot for poker study/play - only played 16z today and played some 10nl hu on Sunday. On a couple of good notes, month is back even, week is profitable and I've arranged some work experience at a hedge fund in the summer

This week:


No really interesting hands to report, will play some more on the weekend when I'm back from visiting some uni mates in Surrey, gf is away too so I'm not planning on much but work & poker <3
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Old 04-16-2017, 11:18 AM   #53
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Re: Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

Quote:
Originally Posted by greymatter View Post
panda - h3 I'm surprised that you think a CO flatting range v a UTG open has that many 4x, I really only thought 44/54s/43s was reasonable. I get what you mean that by T/R villain has all possible 4x in his range, x'ing turn is probably best but can I really be folding to b/b on t/r if I check? Villain almost definitely checks back QQ/JJ/Tx/Kx on river so we lose lots of value against a big part of his perceived range.
I might've misunderstood what you first said about the hand, but I meant to say that the 4x he has in his range (agreed that it shouldn't be many, but you never know with the fishy guys) probably all flat flop+turn imo, so just wanted to point out that I think it's still very much in his range despite not raising flop/turn since you said the following

Quote:
Villain has no 4s in his range (I thought) after not raising f/t
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:55 AM   #54
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Re: Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

Panda - ohhh yeah igy, makes sense too that he wouldn't necessarily raise 4x too, mb

Short update, volume has been very low all month (15k hands approx.) due to revision and it'll have to stay low until early June (when exams end, f*** u engineering) but wanted to post a couple of hands. Had a stupid session yday, won >3BI from people completely punting w/ a few interesting hands too.

Hand 1: Some history w/ villain, pretty passive, playing 22/18
3b pf is loose but barrelling otf w/ almost always 50%+ eq. is correct, thoughts on xb turn to realise equity? By barrelling we can rep A5/56/AA/AK pretty hard and some KQ but pretty much no other value, whereas xb turn and b river can rep KK/AA/AK/QQ/JJ/TT/Kx/A4 as well as all the bluffs we can have.

    Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37708823

    Hero (BTN): $98.81 (617.6 bb)
    SB: $17.60 (110 bb)
    BB: $38.21 (238.8 bb)
    UTG: $16.24 (101.5 bb)
    MP: $34.20 (213.8 bb)
    CO: $26.97 (168.6 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 5
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.48, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.44, 2 folds, MP calls $0.96

    Flop: ($3.12) 2 3 4 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $1.28, MP calls $1.28

    Turn: ($5.68) K (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $2.72, MP calls $2.72

    River: ($11.12) 4 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $7.52, MP calls $7.52

    Spoiler:



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


    Hand 2: Villain playing 70% f3b, sb range will be more passive too so std squeeze spot. Not sure about my line here - xb/b/b better? Tb?
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37708824

      BTN: $15.44 (96.5 bb)
      SB: $19.34 (120.9 bb)
      Hero (BB): $18.56 (116 bb)
      UTG: $19.30 (120.6 bb)
      MP: $31.73 (198.3 bb)
      CO: $51.94 (324.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.40, 2 folds, SB raises to $1.60, Hero raises to $3.84, MP folds, SB calls $2.24

      Flop: ($8.08) 4 9 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.68, SB calls $3.68

      Turn: ($15.44) 4 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($15.44) 4 (2 players)
      SB bets $11.82 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Spoiler:



      Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


      Update over, no real interesting change to br or stakes, will post monthly graph soon.

      BR: $730
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      Old 04-26-2017, 05:20 PM   #55
      greymatter
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      Re: Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

      Baaaad days at the tables. Down $200 in 20k hands this month. I'm stuck, 16z isn't particularly difficult or thought-advancing, I just can't seem to beat it. Maybe I'm 3b'ing too much, bluffing too often, I don't even know at this point. Horrific monthly graph posted below (includes a couple of hands of 10nl hu).




      Session today:



      Seems to be a consistent theme wrt my sessions, I make a couple of BI then end up down 2+ each time. Seems standard stuff (two downticks in the graph are KK<AA, AK<KK aipf), don't know if it's just runbad (samplesize for the whole year is only 75k hands) or if I'm just playing like a donkey.

      Flipside of being competitive is that when I lose, I look for solutions to not lose in the future because I just HATE losing. Poker isn't about the money for me (at this point), it's really about winning and (egotistically) saying to myself "I'm better at this thing than that guy". But, looking over my recent play, I'm struggling to find glaring mistakes that I'm making and adjustments don't seem to be having an effect, so I keep losing and look at these other people who I think are playing badly and start to question all of my own decisions. I'm lightyears from the leagues of 100nl+ but really, as Pads says about his stable playing >$30ABI, the games should be more or less variance-free due to the weakness of the field.

      Maybe I should move down to 10z, sad as it sounds to me, and get to a point of confidence where I'm mentally secure enough to keep confidence in my own decisions, irrelevant of the short-term (but painful) outcome?

      Anyway, self-obsessed, deprecating rant over...hand reviews!

      Hand 1:
      Thoughts on the flop lead? Didn't want it to check around, UTG opener had low cb% and also doesn't cb this board often w/out TP+/nfd and I'd rather take the lead and extract value from 9s/FDs.
        Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37712811

        BTN: $16 (100 bb)
        SB: $16 (100 bb)
        Hero (BB): $16 (100 bb)
        UTG: $16 (100 bb)
        MP: $16 (100 bb)
        CO: $15.16 (94.8 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is BB with T T
        UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.40, SB calls $0.32, Hero calls $0.24

        Flop: ($1.60) 7 3 9 (4 players)
        SB checks, Hero bets $1.06, UTG folds, BTN raises to $2.89, SB folds, Hero raises to $15.60 and is all-in, BTN calls $12.71 and is all-in

        Turn: ($32.80) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
        River: ($32.80) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

        Spoiler:



        Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


        Hand 2:
        Overbluffing river here? Villain's hand is pretty faceup as 88-QQ at the strongest after checking turn I thought but we do block A highs and some turned spade draws.
          Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37712812

          Hero (BTN): $28.33 (177.1 bb)
          SB: $20.66 (129.1 bb)
          BB: $16.18 (101.1 bb)
          UTG: $23.18 (144.9 bb)
          MP: $21.83 (136.4 bb)
          CO: $17.82 (111.4 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is BTN with A T
          2 folds, CO raises to $0.48, Hero raises to $1.44, 2 folds, CO calls $0.96

          Flop: ($3.12) 2 3 7 (2 players)
          CO checks, Hero checks

          Turn: ($3.12) K (2 players)
          CO checks, Hero bets $1.43, CO calls $1.43

          River: ($5.98) 2 (2 players)
          CO checks, Hero bets $3.68, CO calls $3.68

          Spoiler:



          Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


          Hand 3:
          Standard line or jam turn as semi-bluff? We have okay equity (when vilain doesn't have AK) and should be folding out some better Ax.
            Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37712813

            BTN: $26.33 (164.6 bb)
            SB: $5.12 (32 bb)
            BB: $38.68 (241.8 bb)
            Hero (UTG): $16.44 (102.8 bb)
            MP: $16.05 (100.3 bb)
            CO: $28.46 (177.9 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is UTG with A 8
            Hero raises to $0.41, 2 folds, BTN raises to $1.60, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.19

            Flop: ($3.44) 9 A K (2 players)
            Hero checks, BTN bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15

            Turn: ($5.74) K (2 players)
            Hero checks, BTN bets $3.23, Hero calls $3.23

            River: ($12.20) 3 (2 players)
            Hero checks, BTN bets $20.35, Hero folds

            Spoiler:



            Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


            Hand 4:
            Smaller pot but also line check, think river fold is std against his range. Doubtful to be betting Ax/Qx like this, pretty much always a flush, right?
              Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37712814

              BTN: $15.76 (98.5 bb)
              SB: $10.21 (63.8 bb)
              BB: $12.80 (80 bb)
              UTG: $17.92 (112 bb)
              MP: $72.98 (456.1 bb)
              Hero (CO): $26.61 (166.3 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is CO with T Q
              2 folds, Hero raises to $0.41, BTN folds, SB calls $0.33, BB calls $0.25

              Flop: ($1.23) 5 8 Q (3 players)
              SB bets $0.48, BB folds, Hero calls $0.48

              Turn: ($2.19) Q (2 players)
              SB checks, Hero bets $1.44, SB calls $1.44

              River: ($5.07) A (2 players)
              SB bets $4.84, Hero folds

              Spoiler:



              Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


              Thanks if you made it this far! Gl all
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              Old 04-27-2017, 06:19 AM   #56
              PandaLife
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              Re: Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

              I wouldn't move to NL10, it sucks that the pool is so large, so if you have the chance stay at NL16 and keep working! Your overall aggression stats seem pretty low, how are they street by street if you want to share them? Have you had a look at your raise first in, call open and 3b stats by position?

              H1: Not a huge fan of leading this 4way, but if you are willing to b/f vs UTG (or proceed with caution when he calls), and trying to target the two other people into calling, it could be ok depending on their stats. Itís not a great spot when BTN raises flop, but idk really as I wouldnít be in this spot in the first place We block hands like JT, so realistically he has sets or FD with overs here a high % of the time, at least his calling range of your jam. We have 45% equity vs FD w overs (AKs, AQs, KQs) which is already low, but when we add 99/77 weíre down to 23%.

              H2: Was there any stats on the guy that made you 3b AT here, itís pretty loose? There are plenty other hands that should be in a BTN 3b range before this imo. Postflop line is fine, Iíd size larger on turn tho.

              H3: Definitely fold to the 3b, open is also a tad loose but depends on the table, if itís full of nits then go for it but if not then I would open the suited wheel aces instead, and fold A6-A9s. Jamming turn is suicide, xc xc xf is good.

              H4: Yeah fold seems reasonable, wp.
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