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Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind)

03-05-2017 , 02:36 PM
Long time lurker, decided to finally take the plunge and make an account and a PG&C in the hope of long-term motivation and +EV life choices.

Currently a university student in the UK studying Mechanical Engineering in sunny Birmingham, started playing with friends at about 15, fell in love with the game at 17, started online at 18 (a.k.a. the origin story of the whole online poker population). Took the game semi-seriously for the past two years, deposited £10 (about $15 at the time) and went off into the big wide world, hoping to become the next then-Ivey, now-Fedor.

Initially, it all went swimmingly. Came 5th in a 55c tourney in the first week and made about $50, thought I was a god amongst men, etc etc. Proceeded to run it up playing 25/50c MTTSNGs until I had a coupla hundy in the bank, at which point I was just finishing my A-levels. Over the course of my first couple of years at uni, had a few binks (mentioned below graph) but ultimately, variance is a bitch. Peaked at $2.7k around Christmas but mega downswing since then. Winning at a solid clip (7.7ev/bb since Oct '16, when I got a new PC) at a ****ty ABI of $5 but have run horrifically in big spots throughout.

So, as a result of schedules (cannot play off-peak MTT schedule due to full 2nd year engineering timetable) and my renewed frustration with MTT variance, I have decided to split my time between MTTs and cash, grinding 25z during the week and playing Sunday MTTs, using conservative BRM consistently.

Now, what we all love:


https://gyazo.com/853b97a0a1db9cd8803d9f9a1d5e0af2

As seen, around Christmas had a large upswing of approx. $1.5k as a result of a couple of $1-3 binks, then an FT in the $22 Fast Friday (sattied in obv) for about $400. Horrific run deep in that, 1st --> 9th losing (bad beat moan incoming) AQs<Q7s, AJs<K5o, QQ<KQo, all on the f2t, then ft. Checked ICM too, all were +EV.
After that, downswing for looong, then FT in BB16.50 (sattied again) for $1k, then down again. Also had a $1k bink last year in the BB33 (I think you get the idea now), but graph was made after. As a side note, if I do get big sunday MTT binks (ones that would push me far outside current BR), I'll withdraw the majority so as not to tempt myself to go and take 500nl+ shots (not likely anyway as I'm really not much of a -EV gambler, but still, it'll make me pleased seeing those 0's in my bank acc).

[B]Long-term goals[B]
- $20k br
- Winning 100nl+ grinder (>2bbev/100)
- Finish uni w/ 1st, hopefully get into LSE to get a masters in econ

Plan for next 3 months
- Grind nl25z 3 sessions/week
- Win rate of 5bbev/100 at 25z(seems pretty attainable)
- Move up to nl50 when BR hits 40BI (not too far off)
- Only play MTTs on Sunday
- Update thread 3 times/week, posting tough hands and weekly graphs
- Maintain 1st in degree
- Health improvement (currently play 6-a-side football twice a week, but our season is over *cough* won the league, got nominated for goal of the season with a halfway-line banger *coughcough*) so I want to cook 5 dinners/week and 3 gym sessions/week

Weekly checklist
[] 3 sessions of cash
[] Updated thread 3 times
[] Health goals

I know that was long-winded af but I think that covers pretty much everthing! Gl at the tables, hope I crush you all <3

Almost forgot,
Current BR: $1,289
MTT ABI: $5
Cash level: 25nl Zoom


tldr; UK uni student playing cash mainly, sunday mtts. grinding for glory.

Last edited by greymatter; 03-05-2017 at 02:41 PM. Reason: Pasted link for graph, didn't know if IMG worked.
Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
03-05-2017 , 09:05 PM
Played a small session (1k hands) tonight as I went for dinner with my housemates, went pretty poorly to be honest. Lost around 2.5BI, had a bunch of crappy set-up hands (AQ<AK on dry A high board SB v BU, then BU v CO), grinded it back a couple of times but quit after losing AQxx on Q54ss in 3 way, 3b pot to 44. Pretty standard b/c otf but still frustating at the end of a rough session.

Very few hands on villain so more or less irrelevant. No read.

    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37660322

    Hero (BTN): $44.68 (178.7 bb)
    SB: $41.72 (166.9 bb)
    BB: $25.61 (102.4 bb)
    UTG: $25 (100 bb)
    MP: $24.85 (99.4 bb)
    CO: $36.33 (145.3 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A
    2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO raises to $6.25, Hero calls $4

    Flop: ($12.85) 6 A T (2 players)
    CO bets $6.14, Hero calls $6.14

    Turn: ($25.13) T (2 players)
    CO checks, Hero checks

    River: ($25.13) 2 (2 players)
    CO bets $23.94 and is all-in, Hero calls $23.94

    Spoiler:
    Results: $73.01 pot ($2 rake)
    Final Board: 6 A T T 2
    Hero showed Q A and lost (-$36.33 net)
    CO showed K A and won $71.01 ($34.68 net)



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


    Not intended as a bad beat, just wondering about my line (and analysis):

    Preflop is fine, his 4b range is probably JJ+, AKo+ and 4b bluffs like suited broadways & connectors, villain will cb pretty much 100% of range on AT6r, possibly barring slowplayed AA or x/c KK/QQ/JJ but I think a lot of those hands stab anyway.
    Turn check was interesting, a lot of his club suited broadway/connectors 4b's will barrel turn at a high fq so he has a range of AA, AK for value (unlikely to have AT/TT bc pf 4b) and x/f's like KK/QQ/JJ that stabbed flop and now look to give up. Considered betting but if he has AA/AK we valueown ourselves, if he has KK/QQ/JJ we don't give an opp to bluff river and we just fold out worse. So we check back.
    River shove = bad call from us I think as his KK/QQ/JJ aren't likely to shove river, his missed checked draws on turn (v low fq I think) may shove but I think it leans a lot more heavily to AA/AK.

    Thoughts?
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-06-2017 , 06:44 PM
    Pretty good session, just finished 3rd one of the day, only 2.2k hands but +$99.32 and:



    After my first couple of sessions playing 25z, the population seems pretty damn soft at all times of day. Villain 4b's seem to only be QQ+, AK+ with very little bluffing going on, so I'm countering that by being pretty aggro pf and keeping track of villain FCB, FTB, etc., so my graph looks pretty crazy with a maaassive redline and lower (improving) blueline.

    Graph on Saturday after the first week is over.
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-06-2017 , 07:49 PM
    subbed and gl

    are you originally from bham or just there for uni?
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-06-2017 , 08:24 PM
    Thanks!
    Originally from London, been in bham for the past year and a half, looking forward to living back down south soon
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 04:42 AM
    Ohh ha, i'm originally from Bham moved to Ldn to play full time live poker
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 07:52 AM
    Ah cool, makes sense, aren't many good rooms in bham, although I've only played at aspers in London so far
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 09:11 AM
    Good luck! Although there is no way you can commit 100% to poker when you're doing a university degree, gym, football and social life. I guarantee that one of those things will have to give at some point.
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 12:36 PM
    Yeah I know what you mean and honestly, poker will take a back seat when my exams come up in a couple of months and I'm not trying to commit to a full-time grind right now bc I agree, it won't happen.

    What I want for now is to improve as a player, play 10-20 hrs/week and gradually move up stakes. I think this is achievable.

    Thanks & gl!
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 12:47 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by greymatter
    Ah cool, makes sense, aren't many good rooms in bham, although I've only played at aspers in London so far
    The only good action ones are broadway and resort world.
    I'm back in bham this weekend if you want to meet up and have a good chat about pokers
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 02:18 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by HU4hoes
    The only good action ones are broadway and resort world.
    I'm back in bham this weekend if you want to meet up and have a good chat about pokers
    Wouldn't mind
    Discord/skype name too?
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-07-2017 , 02:22 PM
    [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37661899

    BTN: $11.54 (46.2 bb)
    SB: $22.50 (90 bb)
    BB: $25.87 (103.5 bb)
    UTG: $64.60 (258.4 bb)
    Hero (MP): $41.95 (167.8 bb)
    CO: $61.26 (245 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A T
    UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.62, 3 folds, BB calls $0.37

    Flop: ($1.34) 7 A 2 (2 players)
    BB bets $0.58, Hero calls $0.58

    Turn: ($2.50) 3 (2 players)
    BB bets $1.31, Hero calls $1.31

    River: ($5.12) K (2 players)
    BB bets $3, Hero ?

    Thoughts on river action? Possible turn raise against his weak range?
    Not much info on villain, playing 18/15 and pretty passive against bets.
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-09-2017 , 10:19 PM
    Played a series of very small sessions this week, up around 3BI, graphs on Sunday. Completely #LOLsamplesize but winning at 5.28evbb/100 which is good IMO, considering it's my first week playing cash for >1 year.

    Thoughts? Standard GII spot or take a different line (call turn, raise hearts/bricks on riv)?
    I thought his range here would be 33, 88, JJ, T9ss, T9hh and at a lower frequency AQs, AKs+ as these call turn raise sometimes, depending on villain. V in question had pretty high turn/riv aggression factor, small sample though.

    [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37667709

    BTN: $94.41 (377.6 bb)
    SB: $11.73 (46.9 bb)
    BB: $67.41 (269.6 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $48.23 (192.9 bb)
    MP: $42.04 (168.2 bb)
    CO: $80.63 (322.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6 6
    Hero raises to $0.62, MP raises to $2.18, 3 folds, BB calls $1.93, Hero calls $1.56

    Flop: ($6.64) 8 6 J (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks

    Turn: ($6.64) 3 (3 players)
    BB bets $4.18, Hero raises to $12.24, MP folds, BB raises to $65.23 and is all-in, Hero ?

    Last edited by greymatter; 03-09-2017 at 10:25 PM. Reason: Clarity
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-10-2017 , 08:40 PM
    Today took a turn for the worse. Was up about 5BI for the week, running at at 15evbb/100 over, admittedly, a tiny sample but playing well. Then...



    I played a session during the afternoon where I was cruising along, grinding well, then lost a 400bb pot KK v AA where I made a poor decision to call otr oop on Q high board in a 4b pot, BB v UTG. At these stakes, I think it is a fold because villain's range is literally QQ, KK, AA and I'm crushed.

    So, was down 0.5BI on the session but was happy with how I played. Tonight, booked some holiday stuff with my mate and then decided to play a short session. Lost 3BIs in 40 hands. One weird spot w/ fish that played AA as flat BB 3 ways, board is A9937r, min b, min b, min b/r/r. Should've called the river 3b rather than jam but I figured he had a lot more 9x that played weird rather than AA.

    gg my week. Totally breakeven, totally crap. Hope to have a couple of good weekend sessions.
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-11-2017 , 12:19 AM
    GL to you OP!

    66 - I think you have to call w/ there being lots of combo draws (45 57 T9 T7 74 79 Q9 QT , even if villain does these at small frequencies, the sheer amount means you have to call IMO). I don't think villain ever shoves 2p/33 here tbh, seems massive overkill at this stack depth
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-11-2017 , 09:39 AM
    Thanks!

    66 hand - Whilst that can be true, do you think that a lot of those combo's are in his range flatting out of the BB against an UTG open & MP 3b? Villain wasn't playing too crazy, I felt his range was more 99-QQ and some bigger suited aces/connectors (fwiw I don't really like his call but if he flats JJ he'll likely flat KQs, JTs, etc. but not 74s, 75s, etc.).
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-11-2017 , 01:27 PM
    Just come across your thread - I can relate to the start of your journeys and goals. I've subbed and look forward to seeing how you get on!

    The AT hand you posted I fold the river - when he continues betting on the K river, I'm pretty sure he's spiked a flop two pair.
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-11-2017 , 01:32 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by greymatter
    Thanks!

    66 hand - Whilst that can be true, do you think that a lot of those combo's are in his range flatting out of the BB against an UTG open & MP 3b?
    No I don't, I completely misread the hand.

    After re-reading, this is a really easy fold
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-12-2017 , 10:07 AM



    So, not a great first week back playing cash, put a losing score on the board but I think I learned a lot and made some mistakes in big pots that I won't repeat in the future. Also got pretty unlucky with a load of setups (overpairs v flopped sets in 3/4b pots) in the last 1k hands or so but my volume was so low this week that I can't really complain about what is essentially an 8BI swing. Also I think I should not play sessions late in the evening without proper consideration because that definitely cost me some EV.

    Weekly checklist:
    [X] 3 sessions of cash - Had 7 sessions, but for next week it'll be a hands goal as sessions of 500 hands are really not helping me improve much or make any money.
    [X] Updated thread - Put out a bunch of updates, definitely helps to keep thoughts about losing money in check and also having other people review hands too is 100% +EV. Will continue to do so.
    [?] Health goals - Mixed week. Didn't hit the gym but played football and tennis so did around 6 hours of intense cardio, but only cooked dinner for myself 4 times sooooo not really what I wanted.

    Next week:
    [ ] 20k hands
    [ ] Review 30 hands fully, post 5 on thread
    [ ] Health goals (same as previous)

    gl all!
    Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
    03-15-2017 , 06:50 PM
    So, mid-way through the week and I've not had a great one. Down around 4BI, had an irritating amount of set-ups AK/KK/QQ v AA - it feels like at this stake level, most players have a 4b range of solely AA/KK so I'm gonna have to adjust and play much tighter in aipf pots I think. My edge should be much larger postflop anyway.

    Hand 1:
    I think shoving turn is probably much better, bluffing river is probably terrible. Villain has a lot more sets & straights than me but I think he can fold 22/99 and sometimes straights/small flushes, especially as I have A blocker. Spew though.

      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37678690

      BTN: $33.39 (133.6 bb)
      Hero (SB): $36.04 (144.2 bb)
      BB: $13.53 (54.1 bb)
      UTG: $48.20 (192.8 bb)
      MP: $69.09 (276.4 bb)
      CO: $25 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.62, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, MP calls $1.38

      Flop: ($4.25) Q 2 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.88, MP raises to $4.20, Hero calls $2.32

      Turn: ($12.65) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $6.64, Hero calls $6.64

      River: ($25.93) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $8.67, Hero raises to $23.20 and is all-in, MP calls $14.53

      Spoiler:
      Results: $72.33 pot ($2 rake)
      Final Board: Q 2 9 K 6
      Hero showed A K and lost (-$36.04 net)
      MP showed Q Q and won $70.33 ($34.29 net)



      Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


      Hand 2:
      I think pf is fine, betting flop I think is okay but I'm not repping many hands so a check is probably better. Checking turn is definitely better, shoving only really folds out QQ/JJ villain got sticky with otf, probably is never folding AK so it's just bad.

        Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37678697

        Hero (BTN): $27.24 (109 bb)
        SB: $47.85 (191.4 bb)
        BB: $41.17 (164.7 bb)
        UTG: $83.59 (334.4 bb)
        MP: $45.97 (183.9 bb)
        CO: $27.33 (109.3 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A
        UTG raises to $0.62, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.62, SB folds, BB raises to $3, UTG calls $2.38, Hero calls $2.38

        Flop: ($9.10) K 4 7 (3 players)
        BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $5.11, BB folds, UTG calls $5.11

        Turn: ($19.32) 3 (2 players)
        UTG checks, Hero bets $19.13 and is all-in, UTG calls $19.13

        River: ($57.58) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

        Spoiler:
        Results: $57.58 pot ($2 rake)
        Final Board: K 4 7 3 8
        Hero showed Q A and lost (-$27.24 net)
        UTG showed K K and won $55.58 ($28.34 net)



        Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


        Then a fun one to show the real quality of fish at 25z
        Hand 3:

          Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37678700

          BTN: $26.70 (106.8 bb)
          SB: $26.20 (104.8 bb)
          BB: $79.32 (317.3 bb)
          Hero (UTG): $27.81 (111.2 bb)
          MP: $30.13 (120.5 bb)
          CO: $25 (100 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is UTG with T T
          Hero raises to $0.62, MP calls $0.62, CO raises to $2.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.13, MP calls $2.13

          Flop: ($8.60) 8 T 6 (3 players)
          Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, CO raises to $7.66, Hero raises to $25.06 and is all-in, MP raises to $27.38 and is all-in, CO folds

          Turn: ($66.38) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
          River: ($66.38) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)

          Spoiler:
          Results: $66.38 pot ($2.00 rake)
          Final Board: 8 T 6 3 A
          Hero showed T T and won $64.38 ($36.57 net)
          MP showed 7 7 and lost (-$27.81 net)
          CO mucked and lost (-$10.41 net)



          Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


          Playing another session tonight, 2k hands. Need to deal with tilt better too I feel, it's absolutely causing me to spew off as graph from last week shows and the one from this week will show too.

          Gl all
          Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
          03-16-2017 , 04:40 AM
          Hand 1 - is really spewy. His line is super strong post flop - he calls your 3 bet pre, then raises you on the flop and keeps barrelling on a scary board. When he continues to barrel on a turn that's great for your range, it's time to call and see if you bink a flush and fold river.

          Hand 2 - I'm not sure about preflop but I don't play much 25nl anymore. Flop bet looks OK, you can have a bunch of value hands in your range. Just check turn in position though. The 3s doesn't improve your range at all. Given that you have the nut drawing hand, he's much less likely to have a draw, it would have to be only JhTh I guess unless he raises 65s UTG and calls a 3Bet with it. Therefore his range is mostly going to be made hands that aren't going to fold to this action after calling a flop bet.

          Hand 3 - Gotta play those gutters!
          Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
          03-16-2017 , 09:59 AM
          Thanks! Totally agree with your analysis, in review of h2 turn check is definitely better but then river is something I'm not sure on if I miss. I think he leads all his strong value (sets +, AK) so I guess I should just fold to a river lead? Not sure how often he has bluffs since I block nfd, but also not sure if he has hands that b/f river either.
          Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
          03-16-2017 , 10:56 AM
          h1 - I'd raise bigger pre, sb vs mp is somewhat polar, you're OOP and you're deepish. Postflop looks spewey, I get what you're thinking, but all of the hands you're repping either 3b flop or xr turn, esp on the K turn as villain has a strong perceived range that you still dominate.

          h2 - ya pf is fine. on flop you can also x and elect for a more passive route, but a true degen is always going broke by the turn - I'm always going broke by the turn.

          h3 - niceeee

          gl!
          Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
          03-16-2017 , 09:06 PM
          Wow. Worst session of my life, MTTs included. Down over $400 this month already, and it's only two weeks into this cash endeavour. I feel very confident that I can beat this game but the facts of my recent sessions indicate otherwise. I don't know if it's fundamentals I'm missing or what, but I'll continue to grind nonetheless. Possibly move down in stake to 10/16nl to try and find my feet but I'm still 40BIs rolled at 25nl so idk.



          Mental game improvement needed.
          Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote
          03-17-2017 , 04:01 AM
          When I was playing the games I remember the deep 16nl tables being reallllly soft (I don't even know if these run any more?)
          Cracking the mid-stakes poker ceiling (2017 Cash/MTT Grind) Quote

                
          m