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Originally Posted by Brokenstars
Hey, thanks for thinking with me. I will just start with answering your questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
1. What is your river call efficiency and what do you think is optimal?
My fold to c-bets are 43/28/21 for each respective street. I don't think folding less on turns and rivers
in generalis wrong with this high fold to c-bet. However, I think my calling frequency on the river (possibly turn too?) is still out of whack (even with this high fold to c-bet OTR), and it is a bigger mistake than folding too much on the flop in itself.
I would like to fold less to c-bets, especially since nowadays regs use a smaller sizing normally and c-bet with a wider range with higher frequency.
I think anywhere in the ballpark 35-40% for river is optimal. Maybe like 30% for flop and a little bit more on the rivers (as population on 25nl tends to not 3barrel light that often). So that's why I believe folding only 21% OTR,
even with my high fold to c-bet on the flop is a way bigger mistake than folding too much OTF.
This is what I believe and please correct me if you believe I am wrong. I don't really have proof to backup my reasoning. I just used 0.7PSB / (1 POT + 0.7PSB) = 0.41 = 41% <- we have to fold less than 41% to prevent vilain from auto profiting with 0.7 PSB OTR.
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Originally Posted by Brokenstars
2. What do you a good fold to 3bet is?
I actually think 55% is fine, and maybe it's on the high side. I think I should even try to fold less as I move up and as I improve my postflop game theory (assuming I am better than average, which I am clearly not yet).
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Originally Posted by Brokenstars
3. How often do you think you should be folding to flop c-bets?
As stated above, I think it should be anywhere in the ballpark of 30-35% for flop. Given c-bets average around 2/3 PSB. I am not sure, I just know 43% is too much if we simply use math.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
4. How often do you think you should fold to turn probes?
I don't know either. A 400NL reg gave me a free leak finder and just told me that my fold to turn prob is out of whack and too high. I'm not going to tell who for obvious reasons.
I can agree with this as my fold to turn probe bet is 52% at the moment. If we simply use math, it's way out of whack. Especially since probe bets are usually around 1/2PSB and sometimes even lower.
As direct answer to your turn prob % question. If say the average sizing for a turn probe bet is 1/2 PSB we should defend atleast 67%. So a good starting point would be fold-to-turn-probe 33%. I guess we are mostly capped when we check flop IP as PFR, but I also guess we can solve this better by occasionally checking really strong hands and/or medium strong hands that are not outdrawn very often. This to prevent vilain from probe betting 1/2PSB and auto profit anytime. In reality it's hard to prevent vilain from auto profiting with probe bets so I think in reality my fold to probe should be around 35%?.
Thanks for taking the time to ask these questions as it made me think myself more.