Looks like the naysayers could be right
Session 5: -300
Today was a bad day. Started off ok, I was in a good frame of mind and played ok, but the table was SUPER swingy and high variance, due to a couple of weird fishy loose players and one very Laggy Asian guy (villain in most pots) on my immediate Right.
Table dynamics meant it was going to be a very gambly afternoon, I should of played much tighter but that is not my style, but I think I stayed ahead of Villains pre-flop range throughout the day and he played like 50-70% of hands.
Villain in the game: Lag Asian player, told me had been playing for 12-years and never a losing player, was a dealer prior apparantly, though all this could be bull.
Some hands
Hand 1
Early position open to 15, LAG calls, I call on button with JTdd.
Flop Q88dd (45) Opener bets 20, call, call
Turn 2h x,x I should of checked here but both players could be weak, decided to take a stab with a 50 bet. Lag raises to 100. I tank, put him on a 8 here, and call hoping to hit.
River 5h I miss and check fold. Villain says he had an 8 and I believe.
Hand 2
Same Villain raises to 20, I call AQ, BB call (loose player)
Flop (60) 752. Villain bets 35, I think I am still ahead of his range and jam for 80 more. Dont expect BB to call here and he folds. Villain calls.
Turn 10, River J. I win with the best Ace.
Hand 3
Same Villain opens to 20, I call with KQ, 2 calls behind.
Flop (80) K 10d 2d. Villain bets 50. I Jam 150 ish. Player on my left puts in his last 30 with AJ, Villain folds. Turn and river both brick and I win. I had to jam here as Villain is often on a draw, but might call with a worse King if he suspects I am on a draw. KQ is way ahead he could be opening a few weaker Kings.
Hand 4
At this point I have 200 after being in for 300. Swingy session and lost a few pots earlier.
EP (Fishy) opens to 10, same Villain calls, I call SB with A8ss
Flop (30) K 5 6. I check, EP bets 12, Villain calls, I call
Turn (66) 4 I check, EP bets 16, Villain calls, I call.
River (110) 5 I check, EP checks, Villain fires 100
Now this is where it goes bad for me. I have A-high, but everyone has played this hand very weak, EP sizing has been small enough to let Villain call on Button on every street with many weak unmade hands. When EP checks on the river to BB, this looks like a decent spot to bluff, with two clearly weak ranges behind. Villain bets 100, takes a drink and starts stretching. I dont really think A-high is good here tbh, I kind of felt it was bad, I think I just wanted the information TBH. I called with A-high expecting EP to fold behind, which he did. Villain shows 5-8.
The messed up thing is, I didnt need to call there, I think I just wanted to know, just get the information. MY hand reading was weak because clearly Villain can have many 5s here with a draw, which he did. I just thought there could be many hands that he could be calling given the price, Gutshots etc that he might bluff the river. LAG player is seeing so many rivers that I think he needs to be bluffing them often enough.
After this hand I tilted off my last 100.
Having said that, there was one moment that gave me some confidence in my game..
Hand 5
MP (Asian LAG from all earlier hands) raises 15, I call with AQ, BB (same fishy player from earlier hands) 3-bets to 40. I put him on a strong hand, a biggish pair, as he had never 3-bet before but had raised many hands. Lag calls and I call.
Flop (120) K J 2 rainbow. VIllain bets 50 or so. Lag folds. I expect Villain to have few Kings in his range here, I believe he is betting a lower pair (9s-Qs). If I am right he will check turn and I can bluff him off it, or take a free card.
Turn (220ish) 5. Villain checks like I thought he would. I think about bluffing but he seems fishy enough to call it off. I dont have enough I think to push him off a hand, he is likely going to call, so I can take the card.
River (220ish) Ace. I hit. Villain Jams for less than pot and I call. Shows QQ.
What gave me confidence in my game here was talking about the hand later with the LAG on my right. I said VIllain has no Kings in his 3-betting range, so my float is good, and LAG says Villain could 3-bet KQ. I was confident Villain would never 3-bet KQ and AK only sometimes, this leads me to believe my hand reading/profiling abilities must be decent, as I just felt I had a better read on VIllain than LAG, who is a much more experienced, competent, and likely winning player.
Will need to get some more money to play. Might go again in a few days.
Lesson: Dont play in High-Variance swingy tables, or tighten up.