Elmerixx hand challenge 1

Will post a hand here and everybody is free to share their toughts about the spot. Best analysis/post picked by €urop€an will win 100$. You have until monday evening 10 PM CET to post your toughts.

This hand is from 700 psko FT couple weeks ago.

Payouts:

38k
28k
21k
15k
11k
8,5k
6k


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $665 Buy-in (35,000/70,000 blinds, 7,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37659843

SB: 2,961,316 (42.3 bb) (Bounty = 5 143$ )
Hero (BB): 1,492,996 (21.3 bb) (Bounty = 4 236$ )
MP1: 1,392,712 (19.9 bb) (Bounty = 1 709$ )
MP2: 894,594 (12.8 bb) (Bounty = 831$ )
MP3: 4,479,332 (64 bb) (Bounty = 10 504$ )
CO: 4,279,080 (61.1 bb) (Bounty = 7 039$ )
BTN: 1,999,970 (28.6 bb) (Bounty = 4 571$ )

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 9
2 folds, MP3 raises to 153,300, 3 folds, Hero calls 83,300

Flop: (390,600) 5 9 T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets 158,428, Hero calls 158,428

Turn: (707,456) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets 4,160,604 and is all-in


Villain in the hand is Mid/HS reg and he plays pretty loose/agro. I think his RFI will be high in this spot(35%-45%). We don't have any special dynamics going on in this tournament. There is couple weaker spots left in the tourney (SB + MP2).

Some questions I will excpect you to cover in your reply ->

1) What is optimal ?
2) What assumptions if any you would make about villains range on the turn (his jam is 1,4x pot) ?
3) How does Hero's calling range will look like in this spot?

Right? Everybody should post regularly.

Quiet week, Elmerixx and European should start posting really frequently moving forward though which will be nice.

Will play a little later today, last night went to a 0.10/0.20p cash game, confirmed broke!

Have some nice/biggish news that I'll announce either after session today or tomorrow.

Can confirm the Vegas stories.

The problem with bluff catching Pads is that once he knows you know he loves bluffing, he somehow manages to have a value heavy range in the audacious comments that are so hard to be true.

Its the ones your not looking out for that get you then. The ones you cant understand why someone would ever lie about them so don't bat an eyelid become bluff heavy.

Why would he bother telling Chris who he saw at the gym on his return, whats possible to be gained? What is gained is some internal joy at leaving everyone thinking some bull**** is true.

I'll take a stab at the Elmerixx hand without delving too much into the math ranges which I don't think is even necessary here.

I don't think we want to make too many assumptions about villain's hand on the turn as being a Mid/HS reg he should be well balanced with his overbet crams. That being said, I think given the ICM pressure he can apply on us and the bounty he gains when busting us, we can reasonably assume he can shove here pretty wide but what do we actually beat:

We lose to a majority of his 8x (assuming 78s at bottom of range) and Qx combos. All his flush draw combos will have decent equity, even his no pair combos will include at the very least a gutter (if we assume 67s at bottom of range) and there's just not enough of those. We block all 7x diamond combos obviously but not overly important.

So I think with all that said, this seems like a pretty easy fold. If we do call here we're never in great shape as even most of his semi-bluffs are still crushing us or in decent shape.

There's a weak player with a 12bb stack still left. While a fold here puts us in 6/7 we have position on a weak player to our direct left which can be a much easier source of accumulating chips rather than making a speculative hero call in this spot.

P.S. Will take coaching from €urop€an over $100.

I'd fold.

Not an MTT player, but J hits both him and us pretty hard and it's nowhere near an overfold to fold this. Best case scenario is like XXdd/XXcc which have great equity against us and against hands like KQ/78/JT we're at a huuuuuuuuuuuuge equity disadvantage. If we had more equity vs. his value shoves I'd call, but too many hands have us crushed.

calling range would be any pair + additional equity type hands or JX+. If you had 79dd I'd call for example.

Played really good today after last weeks **** show. Turned off Skype, discord, all browsers and music and just tuned in all day to the tables. Had some kinda disappointing deep runs

13th party 530
18th party 530
6th whale (6-7k$)
2nd 109r (6-7k$)
18th $1k stars (4k)


and a few other decent runs. Was very happy, won't play again this week until Sunday.

Looks like the badgers have bricked pretty hard today, but one guy left out of 17 in the snuday mill, so hopefully that converts so we start the month in the green.

Not much to say other than gl and +1 on the donation front

I think his barreling stats are important here ( cbetF/T/R) if he is agro barreling monkey i think hand can go both way preflop fold or call ( when we call and we think he is agro bareling i think we need to close our eyes and justclick call btn when we hit smth)

Flop
I think is pretty close if i do math right we will have ~1mil brehind if we call, so i can see reasons for shoving on this flop( i think we should def shove A9/K9 most of the time here with no club) so here imo comes Cbeting stats in play and imo if he is happy barreling we need to decide here what we gona do here do ee call or shove and what is our plan on turns/rivers if we call
If he is somehow "honest" on turn, we call and evaluate turn

Turn
I think his sizing doesn tell anything except imo that he ofthen doesnt have nutish kind of hand like KQ, 78 or smth BUT given that this is pko and lot of scary cards can come on river and you can sigh fold rivers idont discard them 100% i think he can have 78/kQ two pair sets type of hands like 20-30% of time , i also think as default ( without knowing his bareling tendencies) that most of the time his range is smth like pair, pair + draw , ovrercards + draw, ( QT,Kk, AQ, A8dd/cc etc) so i think his range has descent EQ vs our hand if he is behind and most of his range has us beat and we have almost no redrawing eq on that turn
I think 97 is very bad to call of ( without specific info of villain tendencies) on that turn because it destroys our hand eq imo, i think worse hand i call here is smth like Q9o, 98dd, maybe 58cc if we are not shoving flop with that, i think worst villains hand is smth like AQ,A8( A8 with flush draw most of the times imo)58cc,K8s

So i think vs agro barreling reg (F/T) we should just ch/rai Flop because most of the cards that will come are kinda killin our hand EQ, but again is FT, pko and ICM need to be taken into consideration as well

P.S. If i win i want to replace my reward with 2weeks-1month access to your strategy forums

If you don't want the prize then why not donate it to charity?

also not an online nlmtt player, but fwiw

-is this a slightly questionable defend pre? obv its fine in terms of cEV, but it seems like the % of our equity we get to realise is gonna be quite low, given how often villain gets to put us in spots like this, both bc of exerting ICM pressure and bc of the types of hands 97o tends to make. idk how much this matters, but calling also drops us beneath MP1 in chipcounts, and id assume in a bounty event that has some negative impact to our overall EV. then again, i guess maybe thats counteracted by the potential to win a smallish pot and go above BTN, whose bounty is over twice as large. maybe we mix call/fold pre depending on bounty distributions?

-im assuming question isnt about the actual hand since it seems like an extremely easy fold, pure ICM has our stack worth 14k if we fold, 20k if we call/win, and obv 6k if we call/lose. if we add 2-3k (admittedly an arbitrary amount, but it feels at least reasonably close) to the call/win value bc of increased ability to collect bounties and the value of direct pos on another 3m stack who is also a weaker player, that still has us needing ~50pc, and we only have slightly more than that if we assume as a baseline he cbets flop and shoves turn with his entire preflop range.

-in terms of ranges, seems like a spot where villain gets to overbluff since he has a significant advantage in strong value combos. since i dont play almost any nl i dont have any of the solvers, so i just did some stuff in PPT. conclusions are
-villains weakest bluff should be a hand like A8 with a diamond, and his weakest value bet should prob be KJ
-our weakest call should prob be QJ/Tx:dd/98dd/Q9dd/K9dd

in reality this is prob a spot where he'll be slightly lighter than optimal, i think an aggro player with a big stack is gonna see this texture as pretty good to attack. i dont think though that this means we get to widen our calling range too much bc the hands that are at the top of our theoretical folding range tend to unblock some amount of the hands in his optimal and exploitatively expanded bluffing ranges.

Preflop

Given stacks, in a regular FT this peel preflop would be questionable. However this is a PSKO and the money jumps are quite small. ERGO, it's only 50% of the prizepool. Money gained by doubleing up is much more important than in a regular FT because it increases the likelihood of busting people. So I like the flat.

Flop
This is a easy call. He will probably cbet most his range with given stacks and with 35-45% opening range we are way ahead. Only getting action from better hands or hands with 45%+ equity.

Turn
This card is good for our perceived range. We mostly defend with suited and/or connecting cards (we aren't defending 94o).

When he jams 1,4x the pot, we can safely assume he isn't at the top of his range (2p+) but that is the only assumption we can make. He can have AA which has trouble improving but given he is in position that is a little bit less likely. Tx is also quite unlikely because the turn improves some of our range to top pair. Some people can jam Jx that way, trying to stack Tx because of the bounty equity but like I said, we can't assume much of his range.

I think it's far to exploitable to fold Tx to that jam and if he isn't doing that with Tx than 97 is a call imo. In a regular FT this is a fold because of the ICM but because of the small pay jump and the equity of doubleing up, I'm calling. This is exactly the reason we called with 97o in the first place.

On the hand challenge:
Pre - probably too loose of a peel vs. aggressive reg because not so good equity and difficult to realize. ok vs bad players.
Flop - our hand is clear flat call. With a middle strength hand like this and around 17 big blinds to play behind, this is always a call unless we have a read that villain is cbetting ridiculous amount (85%+) and folding a lot to raise.
Turn - For value part of his jamming range, they are mostly two pairs(T9/TJ), sets, and overpairs that want some protection because there are so many bad river cards that would kill the action/they are forced to check back. 78 and KQ less likely as they warrant less protection. For bluff range, i give him most of the club/diamond draws without a pair. I discount AKcc/AQdd/AJcc types of stuff a bit because they are better checked on the flop. Versus {99+, 55, Ac8c, Ad8d, Ac7c, Ad7d, Ac6c, Ad6d, Ac4c, Ad4d, Ac3c, Ad3d, Ac2c, Ad2d, JTs, T9s, 8c6c, 8d6d, 7c6c, 7d6d, JTo, T9o } we have 27% equity which is clearly not enough for a call. If we add in some KQ/78 we are crushed even harder. Our calling range would be turned two pairs(we raise T9 on the flop), straights, one pair plus straight flush draws types of hands (9d8d, Td7d, 5c7c etc), QJ maybe.

I remember that and also looking at some of your hands and going "wtf is he doing" !

turn - hand is probably close to the nut worst hand for calling you can have even vs 35-45% range which i doubt tbh.

just posting for charity dollar.

2 options:

1:fold pre
2:raise to 'bout tree fiddy

I'll take a shot at answering as well. I'll use ICM explorer and I adjusted the payouts assuming Hero would win about $10K more in total if he won the tournament:



Preflop ICM tax is only 1.7% we only need 30.57% equity to call assuming villain will be agro but Hero is shallow and will get it in pretty wide and realize a decent amount of his equity lets say 80% vs a 45% RFI: (30.57/0.8=38.2%)



97o falls outside of that range but within a 85% equity realization range. I'm guessing Hero is a boss so it must be fine.

Flop not much of an icm tax or anything call is best.

On the turn I'm guessing villain shoves a range that looks something like this:



The ICM tax is pretty high for this about 14% and the equity needed as suggested by ICM explorer is 52% vs that range.



I assumed in that range that villain wouldn't shove the nuts so it's a pretty optimistic range but what I think is realistic. EDIT: Adding KQo doesn't change our calling range much. Also including the fact that I adjusted the payouts for a more top heavy structure I think it's a clear fold on turn I imagine most of villains bluff shoves are decent-high equity bluffs.

A visualization of a range we can call with:
( a bunch of those might not be in preflop flatting range)



The darker shaded suited hands are the club flushdraws.

If villain shoved his whole preflop range except some Tx it's still not quite enough equity:



I'm not sure how to to quantify the future bounty value of doubling up in this spot. I thought maybe changing payouts to the most optimistic $60K for first and it reduces ICM tax to 12% or 50.6% required equity still not enough except against the most optimistic of villain shoving ranges.

Pre and flop call is okay I guess but against aggro chip leader I'd consider c/r ai many flops instead of call-call as our hand is very easily dominated by many cards on turns and we can safely assume we won't get to an easy showdown. This one however is not really the type of hand I'd c/r here so just call and hope to improve and/or that MP3 slows down.

Turn he shoves which I think is his only size if he is not checking behind. He'll be shoving every value type hand alongside his bluffs even nuts are gonna be shoves as the bounty on our head is only winnable if he stacks us obv and many rivers can be a scare card to us after ch-ch on turn and we'd ch/fold some of those rivers for sure even tough we'd correctly/mistakenly (like you did ) would've called on the turn. His money will come here from knocking people out and getting it in with good equity against any smaller stacks on this table. So he's gonna be shoving here all kind of J+ pairs, straights, sets, club and diamond draws, some straight draws (most got a pair as well) and two pairs with a few combos of weaker bluffs like A5o.
Against above mentioned range on the turn and given the 1.4-1.5 bubble factor we need serious equity here, a lot more than 97o has. More exactly it issomewhere around 45% (could be less if we add more air bluffs) which is pretty hard to achieve here but a range like this:
5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c KQs, Q8s, 87s, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, KdTd, QdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Qd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Jc8c, Td8d, 9d8d, Jc7c, Jh5h, Js5s, Jc5c, Th5h, Ts5s, 9h5h, 9s5s KQo, Q8o, 87o, KhJc, KsJc, QdJc, JhTd, JhTs, JsTd, JsTh, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jh9d, Jh9s, Js9d, Js9h, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Td9h, Td9s, Th9d, Th9s, Ts9d, Ts9h would get us there.
However due to the nature of PKO tournies we should consider our future EV with our stack we'll have after this hand which should lead us to calling looser here with hands such as 9d7d or Q8o.

edit: 7:01 pm /facepalm

hand challenge

pf and flop std. Vilain is CL and we have a pretty big bounty, so I'll assume he is gonna open really wide on our bb and agree with the 35-45 RFI.

Turn : I think in bounty mtts, when aggro regs overbet shove they are weighted more towards bluffs than value hands, because it looks so much like they don't want to miss your bounty and want to make sure you get all your stack in, and with the icm pressure here, we should expect him to bluff even a wider range. however in value hands, I don't agree with some people above. I think their value hands are often nutted like 78-KQ in this spot.
It is 1 181k into 1888k so we need roughly around 38% equity.
Let's think about value hands that beat us

Tx : I'd imagine he never ever value jams Tx here
QQ-AA : It seems a bit thin for me here to overjam here
55/99/TT/JJ : very plausible, eventhough he is blocking our calling range super hard with TT and JJ
T9/TJ : possible too, again he is blocking our calling range
78/KQ/Q8 : most of his value range imo

I'm going to break this down into combos

QQ-AA : I'll give him 6 combos
55/99/TT/JJ : I'll give him 9 combos
T9/TJ : I'll give him 12 combos
78/KQ/Q8 : I'll discount 78dd 78cc KQdd KQcc Q8dd Q8cc. I'll give him 50% of the 78o so 8 combos of 78, 14combos of KQ and 14 combos of Q8

Total 63 combos

Now lets think of some hands that could be bluffing

Ac2c,Ac3c,Ac4c,Ac5c,Ac6c,Ac7c,Ac8c,AcQc,AcKc,Ad2d, Ad3d,Ad4d,Ad6d,Ad8d,AdQd,AdKd
that's 16 combos, plus the same for the suited Kx and some Qx, 76, and more combos if we thinks he can jam a wider range of random bluff.

Now eventhough we have one of the best 9x blocking 78 with Ac9x and Ad9x being the worst 9x, I think our calling range should look like 9d7d/98/Q9/K9/Td7d/T8/QT/KT + 2prs+

my 2cents

Elmerixx hand challenge 1

I think we should analyse this hand from a cEV perspective moreso than icm at this point. Bounty builders pay out 1st place ~twice as much as 2nd including bounties. On top of that you currently only cover the two smaller bounties, and doubling up will make you cover sb for example which is fairly important. Basically just the fact that it's sooo top heavy and I assume you're the best player there or top 2 will make those chips more valuable to you. If you're one of the weakest regs at that FT then I'd take a more ICM approach here imo.

Now as for MP3 like you said his range is v wide here, he is chipleader and at this point risking losing 21.3bb vs you doesn'taffect him much, because regardless if he gives up on turn he still has about same as CO and covers everyone else, so he will push his equity here quite a bit.

We have no info about villain other than he is a good lagg HS reg. Some people discounted strong hands from his range but I disagree with that and will assume he has all 78/Q8 some QK straights, as well as both bottom sets/two pairs etc. One reason is balance and the other is just to get the money in before board gets too nasty for villain to call thin anyway.

I spent like 5-10min on Equilab adding/removing condo and I'm sick of it already but don't think equity should change that much from here and reads/timing tells are prob more valuable here than debating combos.

Board: 5dTc9cJd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.05% 58.67% 0.38% { QQ+, 99, 55, AQs+, A8s, K8s, JTs, AdJd, AcJc, AdTd, AcTc, Ad9d, Ac9c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qs8s, Ad7d, Ac7c, Kc7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, Ad6d, Ac6c, Kc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ad5d, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ad4d, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ad3d, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ac2c, AQo+, A8o, Q8o, JTo, 87o, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KsQd, KcQd }
MP3 40.95% 40.57% 0.38% { 9s7d }

So seems like a breakevenish spot to me, but if we remove some more nutted hands like the population suggest (which means its prob correct..) then it becomes an easy call.

I think am folding here, since there appear to be softer spot, even though we have outs. But not committing to draws in this spot.

Villain range includes overpairs QQ, KK, AA, sets, lot of Qx combos(Q10,QJ) some broadway club draws, even some Ax clubs (A5 could play like this). When he over bet shoves the turn he is usually trying to protect his hand from being outdrawn some times besides, occasionally putting us under immense icm pressure and obviously includes some bluffs. It should be not a lot of bluffs though as the board hits our defending range.

Hero has some 10x,9x in range that will pay the villain off occasionally

.

Ok, we need a little bit of help.

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