Quote:
Originally Posted by FTSITTTD
Ok, post the math I guess.
Do you have any giraffes? What results have you had in the past? Why do you consider yourself a far above average player?
And fwiw, no, this is not an "easy task for alot of people", this is one hell of a challenge
Not going to estimate exactly the amount of days each stake move up will take.
Also as you can see in this estimation out of the 300kish hands I expect to play I've accounted 100k of these to dealing with downswings and variance.
If poker was without Variance my goal would be achieved in 200k hands at my expected winrate.
Also if I have not accounted for enough variance I can easily play an additional 170k hands in my 6 month time frame.
MATH
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10nl - 400nl in 5 Months ($200 - $10,000)
Starting Bankroll = $200
Moving up stakes when have 25 BI's
Moving back down when drop under 20 BI's
80k hands per month
AVG = 20k per week
= 2857k per day
** Taking 10k hands for downswing period or breakeven patches and another 10k
hands for making up for money lost during the downswing**
*So adding 20k hands to every number of hands to the
the number of hands it will actually take at 'my hoping
to achieve bb/100 rate'.*
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1st February = $200
*10nl*
Hoping to achieve 10bb/100 = $1/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 25nl($500) = 50k
Amount needed to be made = $300
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Sometime in February = $500
*25nl*
Hoping to acheive 8bb/100 = 2$/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 50nl($1250) = 57.5k
Amount needed to be made = $750
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Sometime in March = $1250
*50nl*
Hoping to achieve 6bb/100 = $3/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 100nl($2500) = 61.5k
Amount needed to be made = $1250
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Sometime in April = $2500$
*100nl*
Hoping to acheive 5bb/100 = $5/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 200nl($5000) = 70k
Amount needed to be made = $2500
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Sometime in May = $5000
*200nl*
Hoping to acheive 5bb/100 = $10/100 hands
Hands estimated to reach 400nl($10,000) = 70k
Amount needed to be made = $5000
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Estimated Date of completion = July 1st
(I estimate I will reach $10,000 somewhere in the
middle of june but I'm giving myself some wiggle
room with the completion date).
Bankroll June 1st = $10,000
Total hands = 309,000
AVG hands per month = 77,250
AVG days taken to move up stake = 24.2
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