NH ^

And re 50nl rake if it's about 7-8bb/100 for 6m, you're prob looking at 5-6bb/100 for FR?

Think the new NL50z HU rake is something like 13-15 bb depending on your style (was under 10 before changes), so it's pretty difficult to have a decent winrate there anymore. It's still beatable tho, especially if you are pool selecting just a bit, there are plenty hours of the day where there are many recreationals in there.

Jesus ^

Cool, I wass gonna pm him but looks as if he already replied below.

Ty

Thanks for the input. ~15bb/100 is what I had heard other people say. Sounds huge to me. Do you know what the rake is HU on other sites or is it pretty similar to Stars?

Makes you sick doesnt it.


I have played 16k hands HU lifetime, mostly on FR tables. 16k hands is a lol sample size and I wouldnt be shocked if my winrate was BE or losing after 100k hands.

In my 16k hands HU my winrate is EV 16 bb/100. Now I was just about to confess that I was probably paying cheaper rake cos the action took place on FR tables.

I just checked there and I paid 14.79 bb/100 in Rake playing HU on FR tables!! So there was defo no discount there. Stars must have made sure that when a FR table goes HU they crank the rake up to be the same as a normal HU table.

I have Supernova VIP on Stars so I can get decent rakeback. For me to start playing HU tables on another site for a slighty cheaper rake the difference would probably be negligible given that I would get almost zero rakeback elsewhere.

I could quit HU whilst I am probably ahead of variance.
Or play out 100k hands HU and see where my winrate is after a decent sample.

Think I just realised something. If the rake on a FR table is adjusted for the number of players sitting then the less players seated the higher the rake.

So opening on the BTN 9 handed is not the same as opening the BTN 3 handed cos the rake is gonna be sufficiently higher maybe 2 or 3x

So the bottom of my BTN opening range when 9 handed which is likely to be BE or a very small winrate. Them hands will have no chance of beating the rake when it is 3 handed!

So I should be adjusting my range based on the number of players seated.

Ill bet you my winrates are absolute awful when the table is shorthanded cos I havent been adjusting.

Ill need to have a closer look at how much the rake is for each number of seated players. This game gets more complicated every day.

Yeah the rake is huge for sure and variance will be big, but it's a very funny/educational game so it should improve your overall understanding about poker. No idea about other sites, think action is pretty much dead all over the place, if it isn't then I would expect same/higher rake but not sure. Either way, playing some zoom to get a feel for the game/different player types would be my recommendation.

HU rake will always be HU rake no matter if it's played at 2-, 6-, or 9-max tables, since the rake structure goes from 2-2, 3-6, and 7+ players at Stars.

NL50 HU = rake cap $0,75
NL100 HU = rake cap $1

Right got it. So there is essentially a HU rake, a 6max rake and a FR rake. On a FR table I will pay one of the three rake brackets depending on how many people are seated.

In my HEM @50NL

7 to 9 Players
Rake = 6.96 bb/100

3 to 6 Players
Rake = 7.8 bb/100

There isnt that much difference between the 3 to 6 and 7 to 9 rake to worry about it. But HU is a different story.


Yeah I would defo agree that playing HU will improve your game. I played a very high VPIP HU so I got plenty of experience of playing a much wider range of hands than my FR game. Now that I realise how the high rake is HU I might fold a few more hands.

I am not sure how the fun/educational aspect of HU, which fwiw I dont necessarily agree with, is an argument for playing it, even more so on a site like Stars who charges by far the most rake HU than any other site?

You should look at rake first and I don't think 15bb/100 in rake is very beatable at any stake quite frankly.

15bb rake is defo very off putting. From what I am hearing HU is pretty much dead on other sites and Stars are doing their best to kill any action still surviving there.

Doug Polk was on Chicago Joeys Podcast again last night. About 15 to 20 mins in he discusses HU

I had a look at some data yday and this post about 3 bet pots reminded me of it. When I compare my results to the winning players in my database (which I usually refer to as the benchmark) they generally have better results when they open and then face a 3Bet.

For example for BTN steals and then face a 3bet my winrate seems to be worse than the Benchmark. However, when I break it down the players I am comparing myself to generally open smaller to around 2.5x

So when they face a 3bet and fold they can fold cheaper @ -250 bb/100 where as I am -300 bb/100 cos I open to 3x. But this is balanced out by the fact that my 3x open takes down more pots Pre flop so I have a much bigger edge there. When you add everything up my winrate is almost identical from BTN steals to the Benchmark players so really it is just two ways of getting almost the same results from slightly different strategies.

Again I am paranoid that I will have to change to a 2.5x open when I move up in stakes as most of the good players seem to do it but right now I cant see any evidence in my data which suggests it is better.

Thought this was quite funny. vs Reg.

When he bets small on flop and checks the Turn I am thinking he has missed with 2 overcards so I am looking for a cheap showdown. I am sometimes tempted to bet the Turn in these spots so the villain cant draw out on me with overcards for free. Recently I have had a lot of XR Jams shoved down my throat on the Turn in spots like this so I opted to just check back the Turn.

When he jams the river I just thought you MF, something doesnt make sense about this. I reckon with AA or KK he would triple barrel on that board and defo bet bigger on the flop. But with 66 can I call this?

I pinged the table to the other monitor so I could tank for a bit and I had multiple tables requiring action. My attention then moves to the next table against a big fish. Then all my Stars tables freeze. I remember panic clicking the mouse trying to play a premium against a fish. Nothing happens for a few secs while I continue pushing hotkeys to breathe some life back into the software.

Then action resumes and I have somehow clicked to call the river jam.



I looked over and seen the chips getting moved my way and a few recreationals complimented me on my monster call

Monthly results for July, think I am the same as everyone else in July and have had a pretty average/bad month. Havent looked at the actual results yet and think I will leave it so I dont tilt myself.

I have been working on redoing all my ranges and trying to patch leaks. I have been moaning about my BB game being sh#t since the beginning of time so I think I have to fix this before I can progress any further.

There are a lot of BB scenarios where I am not sure how wide to call. Playing my normal game isnt getting the BB winrate any better than -50 bb/100. Trying to work out what hands I can flat with using Equilab is difficult because a lot of my BB flats will under realize their equity due to me being OOP in the BB. So I figured that in order to improve things I am going to need to start building samples on some of the borderline hands. Once I have played a sufficient amount to get an idea of winrate I will know what to fold and what to call with. Only problem with that gameplan is that things may get worse before they get better as I will be playing some hands that are -EV.

Thats the reason I dont really want to check results right now as I know this is bit of an experimental phase, but it should plant the seeds for a better winrate in the future.

DFS Soccer will be starting up again this month so my attention will be divided once again but I reckon I can do both.

August Goals:
Work on Leaks
Try to figure out how to improve BB game
Prepare early for the next DFS Soccer season

Reg Opens, Fish call, Hero flats in the BB

A few things dont make sense to me.

If Reg has the nut flush why doesnt he continue to barrel the turn?
If he has the nut flush why doesnt he XR 3bet on the turn, is he not worried about me having a set and the river pairing?

I block AK, 75, and no way he has T7 for the straight flush. So he is down to like AJ, AQ and i am not sure he has too many more Ax

I was worried about getting raised before I bet the River, however the guy is bit of a call station and very good chance he would look me up with a straight so I didnt want to act scared and let him check back a straight.

I also didnt want to bet too small on the river so it didnt encourage him to jam. Was a XC on the Riv the play here?

I was suspicious at the time that he has AA with the and he planned to bluff me off the river when he sees me min raise the fish on the Turn.

But at the same time when he does jam StarsHelper was telling me that I only need to be good 16% of the time to call the river here. Given them pot odds I have would he still bluff AA here??

As played should it have been a bet call for the times he does bluff holding the A without the nut flush?

I almost clicked call but only 3 secs timebank I didnt have time to recap everything so timed out

this is vs a fish... how are you folding here? It's probably fairly close tbh but I just wouldn't fold vs a fish. Also I raise turn slightly bigger to set up sizes for river.

Its vrs a reg ...

That is a tough fold although probably the correct decision.

Hap is correct it was vs a Reg on the river. The fish bet folded on the Turn.

tbh I kinda expected the Reg would get out the pot when I raise the Fish Turn bet. I didnt want to call the Turn as I am OOP, so had to raise really to set up river play.

I min raised the Turn cos I fully expected the Reg to fold. My min raise doesnt look scary enough for the Fish to send him running. A lot of times Fish will just spazz the f**k out here and jam the Turn with a pair and flush draw.

And given that stacks were huge between me and Reg and I have the 2nd nut flush I am still a little bit concerned about him having A so I dont want to raise huge before I see what the Reg does. He may stick around with a straight or he might jam his nut flush if I put enough of my stack in on the Turn.

Not to worry anyway, its a rare spot and just one of the things you need to deal with in this game. Pretty sure my River play was incorrect given circumstances. I probably should have planned to XC vs a reasonable river bet and if he overbet jams I can fold a lot cheaper.

Haha still thinking about this.

If we count combos of Villains possible holding on River and we assume he has to have the A to bluff on the River and assume he is not opening ATo in UTG+1

Bluffing Range:

3 Combos
AA
AA
AA

Likely Value Range:
3 Combos
AQ
AJ
AT

Still Possible For Villain To Have, Value Range
4 Combos
A 7
A 4
A 3
A 2

On the River he would have 3 combos of Bluffs and maybe 7 combos of value.

So Villain has 30% Bluffs and 70% Value bets on the river (assuming villain is balanced and has bluffs in his range here)

Again it starts to look like I should have XC the river.

And given that my pot odds were 16% to call the jam, he can have 30% bluffs here so looks like it should have been a bet call as played.

Well Excel is spazzing the fcuk out and I dont want to risk corrupting the sheet so thought I would update this while I wait on it.

Pokers
In an attempt to boost my wr I changed a lot of my preflop game. There are a lot of spots pre especially in the BB where I am not sure what to flat with and fold with. So I started playing a wider range in order to build up some stats.

Another change I made was to play less tables and concentrate on playing my strat effectively. Now and again I will need to check some notes or a hand chart in a spot which takes up a few extra secs, so playing less tables is good for this. However, action does feel really slow at times and it will probably take forever to build up some stats on the marginal hands I am unsure about.

Steps Backwards
Trying to improve my game I have defo went backwards in some spots. I watch some training videos in order to improve. At some point I decided to experiment with my opening ranges based on the advice and hand charts that other Pros recommend.

My logic was, this person is a better player than me, has more money than me and plays higher than me so when he gives opening range advice I should take note and alter my game accordingly. I add in some hands that I dont usually open and guess what happens? Yep, I butcher my winrate in Unopened pots and my overall winrate takes a nose dive.

Numbers Dont Lie
Although somebody may have more money, be a better player, play higher stakes than me, that does not mean that ALL the advice they give will suit my playing style or the games I currently play in. They may be giving generic advice on what they think is good to open but they dont even play Full Ring on Stars at the stakes I play in and if they played these games in the past it is likely that the games have changed a lot since then. I have good numbers in HEM for what is good to open and what is not, so I dont need anybody else's starting hand chart.

DFS
As previously stated I have been playing DFS which has eaten up considerable amounts of my time. My plan was to drop MLS and LMX soccer this season, which I did do. However, La Liga got introduced as well as International European World Cup Qualifiers and South America. So I have been kept busy with that. I remember playing 100NL deep stack tables and feeling the pain of losing $300-$400 in one hand. Well in DFS I have lost over $2k in a day sometimes so I think any future stackings on the Poker felt wont feel quite so bad compared to that.

Pokerstars/Supernova
Supernova will be gone next year and replaced by some bs VIP program which comes as no surprise to anyone. Based on that I dont think there is any point in me making a push to retain Supernova this year and the focus should be less tables and higher winrate. I heard UK bookmaker William Hill were in some 5Billion merger talk with Amaya, dont see it happening and also some rumors about Scheinberg wanting Stars back. Either way the future looks uncertain for Poker as ever which is slightly demotivating but comes with the territory these days.

Moving Onwards
Given all the changes I have made to my poker game some of which were defo -EV I have lost track of where my WR is in this game. Fixing some of my preflop play I think I can get my winrate to around 4bb/100 at 50NL. From there I will need to work on getting better at postflop play and when I pull things together start taking shots at 100NL again. I think to keep myself motivated and for it to be worth playing in the current climate, I need to be moving on from 50NL.

Excel has regained consciousness.

Time for a look at some good old fashion Giraffes and some reflection about the 50NL journey.

First off, when I moved up from 25NL to 50NL I was probably a pretty weak poker player with a lot of leaks and tricks that were no longer going to work against a stronger field of players.

I banged some numbers into Excel to make some quick graphs as the HEM graphs can be a bit noisy sometimes and can be hard to draw conclusions from and see improvement. Plus I like that "trendline" feature in Excel.

Unopened Pots


Some Giraffe details first. Stats are taking from HEM giraffe by hovering over the graph then plotting the numbers in Excel. I looked at orange line EV stats from HEM and used these.

Vertical axis is EV bb/100
Horizontal axis is # of Hands

The blueline is my EV bb/100 after that many hands.
The greenline is the Excel trendline to see if we are improving any.

So Unopened pots at 50NL starts off pretty poor at 8.4 bb/100 after 50k hands of Unopened pots. I do seem to remember running like death when I first moved to 50NL however my game would have been littered with leaks that poured petrol on that fire.

Over time, (200k hands later) the winrate is up to 10.7 bb/100 and the trendline shows a general improvement. Check what hands are not profitable to open at 50NL and remove them, EZ game.

Recently the improvement in Unopened pots has stagnated a bit during my tilted period of adding in some -EV hands to my opening range cos I seen somebody else do it in a video or two.

Good to see improvement, but 10.7 isnt good enough here. I reckon I can make some tweaks and get this to 12.6 bb/100. IMO the good players have a winrate of ~13.5 bb/100 here .

Next up the action facing us is:

vs 1 Limper



It is much easier to show improvement when you start off this bad

After 10k hands playing against 1 Limper (i.e Fish) my winrate was a miserable EV 6.2 bb/100. I defo have/had some leaks whereby I wasent good at folding to fish raises.

There were also occasions were I would get in a personal battle with these whales and start thinking that because the whale is opening so wide I can play him in position with a wide range myself and thus I become the whale idiot and spew a lot of chips tryna win with mediocre hands.

The Girrafe shows improvement over time, but the winrate is still miles off where it needs to be. Perhaps the winrate was affected by such bad play to begin with it will take a long long time to show decent numbers.

However, if I take my winrate from the last 5k hands or so and take a measurement starting here going forwards it should be much closer to where it needs to be.

vs 1 Raiser



vs 1 Raiser, so facing pots that have been already opened.

Not so sure this giraffe shows any improvement although it does improve and the trendline might indicate this. However, I think this one shows more of a case of runbad to start with then regression towards the mean.

A lot of the problems here lie in how I play from the blinds and the lack of knowledge of how to play optimally preflop given that alot of hands and situations are gonna be borderline.

at 100k hands it looks like things might improve then it dips. This is the stage where I get frustrated about my Big Blind game being awful and start to play a wider range of hands in case I am making folds pre that are +EV to play. The reality is that most of them probably are -EV to play and should be folded so when I play these hands to build up a sample on them I lose worse than -100 bb/100 it would be to fold. So perhaps the leak is lack of post flop skills playing from the Big Blind and if anything I perhaps need to tighten up pre rather than play looser. But not 100% sure about anything here tbh

Then onto:

vs 1 Raisers and Caller(s)



Not sure this giraffe tells us a whole lot. 30K hands in total of facing this scenario and intervals are plotted at 5k spells so a lot of up and down in there just from variance.

Again the problems here are similar to above, I am pointing fingers at the Big Blind as the problem. I just dont know how wide to call in the BB facing 1 Raiser and Callers(s). Kxs Qxs Jxs Txs, suited 1 gaps, suited 2 gaps etc. I do not know where the cut off point lies between folding and seeing a flop. Obv game dynamics of how many Regs and Fish are involved will affect things and position of the original raiser will effect how strong of a range we are up against.

I think my squeeze ranges are more likely to be ok here and it is the wide multitude of marginal call or fold type hands that I am unsure what to do with. Unless I stumble upon some good answers to these spots the only thing I can do is play a sample of the hands in these spots and then start to figure out what is a fold and what is a call by looking at the winrates of the hands I have played.

But given that these are some of the less frequent spots in NLHE it takes aaaages to build a sample up. So this is why progress is taking so long. Given that edges are so small nowadays and Stars increase the rake and cut rakeback every other month I feel I need to get every part of my preflop game closer to optimal if I am going to survive and move up in this game.

Once I am more confident I have preflop more finely tuned I can get to work more on postflop play and look into PIOSolver and GTORB. I believe I can figure things out but its just a case of how long it will take me and if online Poker is still around by that point.

I will drill down further at these problem areas, clean up some leaks and try to put in a 50-100k hand stretch with a decent winrate.

Just had a look at my own database and my ev is +18.15bb when facing one limper. However winning regs are winning at 30bb in this spot.

Yo,

how was the Vegas trip. I was checking out your thread although I stopped reading at the bit where you stayed in the bar to watch the Barcelona v Celtic game. Im a Celtic fan so watching that game was bad enough, I didnt want to hear anymore about it. Think the Hoops regained some credibility with the performance against City though.

Anyway back to Poker. Your winning Regs are winning at 30bb vs 1 Limper, seems about right. The winning Regs I studied are winning at 28.6 bb in this spot.

When I looked at winning Regs it was interesting the similarity between the stats they play in a lot of spots, seemed as if they were playing a very similar strategy. Maybe that is because alot of these guys are in the same Skype groups or come from the same stable where they are backed and given a preflop strategy to follow that has been passed down. Or maybe people get there by trial and error. But it seems to me there is defo a sweetspot for a lot of the numbers and %s in the preflop game. Then you can maybe play slightly looser or tighter depending on your postflop skills.

I have also been thinking recently that it might be GTO to raise bigger pre vs Fish limps. The standard 4x raise probably does fine but I think Fish are well used to this now and they just flat often. Given that Fish dont like to click the fold button postflop and if we take it down Pre we dont pay Rake. When I am frying a Fish HU I usually test him to see what his break point is for folding his open limp and alot of people still want to see a flop for 4x.

Right after I wrote that I was thinking that a lot of the winning "Regs" that I looked at, which also have very similar stats are potentially a bot ring. The bulk of these guys are from Russia, Belarus, Ukraine... from what I recall.

It would make sense to have some slightly different Vpip and pfr numbers so as not to raise any red flags then play largely the same winning preflop game. I had a scan thru the lobby yday and noticed alot of the same regs that I played with all still playing the same stakes. I acknowledge its hard to move up stakes these days but I still get puzzled when I look at a Regs Hud and see he is winning at 5bb over like 80k hands yet he never shot takes to move up stakes.

But there would be no point in moving your bot up stakes if you already have a few playing the next level anyway. No doubt Stars know all this and just take the rake anyway.