Right not sure where to start off this update so I'll just dive right in and start going through things. Might have to do a lot of thinking/reflecting as I type so this could be a long post.

First off I'll start by saying that I am taking part in the Stars strike for Dec 1st to 3rd.

Next, November was easily my worst month of the year. Defo feel I had some run bad but will take a closer look at where it went wrong.

Here is the monthly graph for every hand played:

Net Won -$2,441



I roughly worked out I would have made around $1,000 from FPPs and Stellars so my bankroll took a -$1,500 hit in November which feels pretty brutal.

So what happened? Well I did have a minus 10 BI session on my last session of the month, that did not help.

I started playing 6max Deep this month. I started playing this game because my best winrate so far was coming from the FR Deep tables but those games dont run very often so I figured I would try 6max and see if I could continue a decent winrate on the Deep tables there as more games run.

Obv the slightly different format and not having any history on the Regs was -EV.

Ok graphs:

6max Deep 100NL and filtered for 3 to 6 players as I dont want HU action effecting results as its a complete different game:


^Not many hands but its not like I was getting killed, EV 0.19 bb/100

6max Deep 50NL:



EV there was -1.83 bb/100, the graph also has a very poor start prob due to not having hands on people and mistaking a few loose regs for fish etc and making some poor calls.

Down around $800 from 6max Deep and I run poorly there and run under EV.

FR Deep I lost around $500 in 11k hands.

100NL normal 100bb tables I only managed 4k hands but lost $500 there.

And then lastly as I table start usually end up playing a bit of HU action, which also been one of my best winrates. Not so in Novemeber, possibly variance catching up with me a bit. Remember taking a few coolers and missing a lot of draws but I dont recall being hugely angry with myself for any bad play.

HU Graph:


Down what, another 600 from HU action.

What the f*** conclusions can I draw from all that? And what do I do moving forward?

Think the problem with all them graphs/results are that the sample sizes are too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from.

Think my last results at 25NL I was winning at 5bb over a decent sample. Then at 50NL think I was around 1bb. Then I quickly moved up to 100NL mainly to get more VPPs to secure Supernova but at 100NL normal tables I am -2.64 bb/100.

Deep Stack FR 50 & 100NL This Year Graph:


100NL FR Deep 14k hands @ 4.47 bb/100
50NL FR Deep 35k hands @ 5.82 bb/100

^Not very big samples there so right now kinda thinking I am running good in them games and by the time variance catches up my winrate on Deep tables will be more similar to normal tables??

Looked at this last night before I went to bed and ended up laying awake for about 4 hours thinking what to do next month.

Dunno whether I should give 6max a miss and concentrate on FR. If I do concentrate on FR then I should prob go back to 50NL for a while?

I think one of the problems with this month has been I have been pulling my brain in too many different directions between playing normal tables and ante Deep tables, both 6max and FR and then add in HU action too.

Here is something I noticed earlier, the big problem I had in the "BB vs 1 Raiser on Btn" problem, I had manage to patch the leak quite a bit.

When I checked this again last night, guess what my winrate has divebombed here again from being a straight line. It took a massive nosedive only on the Deep stacks tables!

I am now thinking I started over-compensating on the Deep tables because of the antes there is more to fight for in the big blind. This led to me playing too loose and bleeding a lot of money. No doubt I have done this in countless other scenarios.

Anyway I have a few days to think about things before choosing what games to play in December.

On a positive note, I did manage to get a new badge to sew on my sleeve:







So I had enough FPPs to cash in 2x of the following:




I got to add around $4k to the BR from the bonuses. But dont want to be losing another $2,500 next month so gonna need to have a think about where I should be focusing my attention. Prob wont get any sleep thinking about this again tonight but perhaps by the morning I may have some answers about what to do.

My current BR is ~$6k

My advice would be to play regular 6max tables at 50nl. Just get a feel for the different ranges and pre and postflop and the different dynamics. I think it's expecting too much to make the switch at 100nl, where you're already losing at the FR games. What sort of sample size did you have at 50nl when you were winning at 1bb? And was that FR only or does it include some 6max?

Yeah I agree it was expecting a lot to make the switch to 6max at 100NL when I was struggling at 100 FR. Only real reason I wanted to try 6max was to see if I could hit the ground running at the Deep tables cos my FR Deep results were looking good.

FR 50NL - 100k hands at normal tables @ 1bb/100
FR 50NL - Deep Stack tables - 35k hands @ 5.82 bb/100

I think for me to play 50NL normal 6max in December is maybe too much of a gamble right now, lol.

I already have Supernova in the bag now so there is no immdetiate pressure to play 100NL. I have a couple more days to think it through but prob leanings towards doing this in December:

FR Deep 100NL
FR Deep 50NL
FR Normal 50NL

Think another problem I had last month as well was trying to get the right balance of number of tables to play. I know myself as soon as I have too many tables my game goes downhill and I make more mistakes. So when I was juggling the 6m and FR I was never sure how many of each table to be playing. Sometimes I would have too much action and others not enough.

If I go back to playing only FR I can play my usual number of tables and that is one less problem to rock the boat.

Need to do some thinking out loud for a minute. Been having a good look at HEM last few days due to Stars strike.

Been feeling for a while I had leaks within my opening ranges. I have went through them all and tightened some things up. I noticed that I have leaks from UTG+1, +2, MP, HJ and CO when I open and then face a 3bet. Compared to the winning players I looked at, when I 4bet I get way less folds from villains and I face a 5 bet a lot more often!

Why is this?

Because I have adopted some bad habits from the Micros where I have been overly scared of 5Bets unless I have like a powerhouse hand. But at the same time I will check a villains HUD stats and if he folds to 4bets too often, like over 60% I will happily 4Bet bluff.

Then all that happens is Villain checks his HUD and realises this guy 4bets a bit and folds to 5bets too often. Villains are then already planning to 5bet bluff me before they 3bet me.

The end result is a big leak from not having well thought out enough ranges and 4betting too much/folding to 5bets too much. Hopefully, I have somewhat patched this leak by having more solid ranges and dealing with 3bets better.

Right as I was thinking about this I realised this might also been another factor as to why my winrate is better on Deep Stack tables. Because when I face a 3bet I can flat a wide range due to the bigger stack depths and implied odds. If I do 4bet light on a Deep table and the villain checks his HUD and decides to 5bet bluff me - guess what? I dont fold on deep stack tables as often cos I can flat the 5bet or even 6bet. Thus it is a lot harder for villains to 3bet/5bet and push me out a pot on the deep tables and I dont get exploited as much.

Found a few other leaks too but I reckon the above paragraph is a big one. Will have another look at things 2moro, set some goals and get this show back on the road.

Picked up a couple Ed Miller books on the cheap via eBay so off to do some reading.

Congrats on reaching Supernova mate ... really impressed.

I will start the catch up early next week

stop wasting your money on those useless books

they suck

Thanks mate, shoot me a msg after you have had a session or 2 back see how it went.

Do you think Poker books in general are a waste of money, i.e time is better spent studying training videos or HEM. Or is it that you think those books by Ed Miller in particular are useless?

You could argue that they may be a waste of "time", but the fact that I paid under £10 for the two of them is hardly a waste of money imo. I dont have to learn a whole lot from them to get £10 worth of value.

I think for the amount of time I already spend looking at a computer monitor while grinding, watching videos, HEM, 2+2, reading a book is a decent rest for the eyes and a break away from the computer.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

First session back on the grind for a while.

vs 1 Reg and 1 pretty big Fish who was in the BB. Timebanked for a bit here, then figured this was QQ v KK v AA, my radar must be slightly off..

Review of November Goals:

December Goals:

• Concentrate on FR this month
• Keep an eye on main leaks and check over before playing
• Leak Busting: Use new open ranges, along with 4bet ranges and 5Bet call ranges, to improve winrate in unopened pots.
• Make sure my "Big Blind vs 1 Raiser on the Button" game stays solid and doesn't drift downward the way it has done on Deep tables And fix this leak on the Deep tables.
• Fold to River Raises when we are beat
• Go over my notes on playing against fish and learn to recognise their bluffs from their value bets.
• Improve winrate at 50NL FR
• Keep a positive mindset
• Check results this month if we need to and also review winrates of Leak scenarios in HEM to see how improvements are going
• Do not play too many tables at the same time! Find the balance of Quality and Quantity.
• Get thinking about goals to set for 2016

Boooom lets do it.

Maybe should be folding to the 3rd barrel? Think the bet size enticed me to call.




Easy Game




vs Reg.

I dont like the flop here and X. If I get raised on the flop I dont fancy getting it in as he can have all 3 sets, and combo draws.

I should probs fold the river right? But by this point this thought runs through my mind "....hmm..he could have a missed draw or even KK.."

Hand 2 you always want villain to have the nut flush just so he has a wtf moment on the river

Yeah he prob deserved some chat abuse for not having the nut flush there.

I finished reading that article you linked itt. Kinda already knew most of that stuff from Matt Janda material, but going over things again never hurts. I see the article referenced Matt Janda videos. I was sure I had watched them videos so went and dug out my notes. Was shocked to see my notes were dated April 2014! Feels like it was only a few months ago I watched them Janda videos but guess the months have been flying past.

Good old bottom set.

vs Reg




This is a hand I would usually post with a comment like the following: "Yeah I knew he had TT or QQ on the flop but I thought I would stack off anyway.."

vs Reg (Flop Raise in 3bet pots 0/10)





vs same Villain as above. 5Bet Range 2.1

Kinda awkward one. Last month I would have prob folded pre but trying not to fold to as many 5bets. Figured his 5bets fromt the Btn may be a little looser, but as he squeezed an UTG opener I am not expecting him to have trash either.




Aiming to get my winrate in unopened pots to ~14.7 bb/100 this month. On target so far but looks as if I am running pretty well on the Btn. SB improving from being more disciplined.

Can't say I'm in love with your AQs 4-bet when you could flat his 3bet and see a flop in position heads up.

I play 6max, so maybe ranges play differently but I'd think in general your 4bet range is generally pretty capped in this situation.

Ian

I agree. I am not in love with it either, nor comfortable with it.

However, what I have been banging on about the last week is that I am folding to too many 5Bets.

Initially I thought I had opened this hand and faced a 3bet. When I viewed the replay I was surprised to see UTG in fact opened the hand. I maybe just forgot this overnight.

Anyway, this maybe confused me at the time and I didnt adjust to playing vs a squeeze. I played it as how I would have played if it were me opening on the Btn and facing a 3bet from the BB.

• On the button I have tons of hands I am flatting 3Bets with.
• I dont however have tons of hands that I can 4bet with and call off a 5Bet
• AQs is the nut worst hand I am flatting a 5bet with here
• Against a 2.1% 5bet range (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs) AQs has 33% equity
• My pot odds were exactly 33%
• Against his actual hand JJ. AQs has 46% equity
• AQs has blockers to AA and QQ

It seems to make sense to flat as we are in IP.
But AQs still gets dominated by AK, AA, KK, QQ, so what are we hoping to hit on the flop? Best chances are gonna be to float the flop and hope he gives up turn.

If the villain had a 5bet range of like 0.9% then I am sure I would have adjusted and flatted the 3bet cos I would know that I cant 4bet and call off the 5bet shove.

As it was, I had blockers to AA and QQ. I felt as he was in the BB I would have some fold equity when I 4bet, plus with the 2.1% 5bet range I felt I could just about call the 5bet.

I dont know. Maybe I will rethink the ranges here to get AQs out of the "4bet/call 5bet range" but from what I can see winning players are using a similar range % wise, although I dont know if that includes AQs.

If I drop AQs from the call vs 5bet range what do I replace it with?

I am already calling with AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AKo,

If I simply remove AQs from the call vs 5bet range, I then need to lower my overall 4bet range on the Button or I will get exploited by folding to the 5bet too often.

If I then lower the 4bet range, the 4Bet range starts to get tight and really value heavy and villains can then adjust and just fold anytime I 4bet cos my range is too strong.

So although there is gonna be a few moments of cringe when I have to call off 5bets with AQs on the Btn I am not expecting to win all that often but it helps balance my ranges and stops me getting 3bet/5bet all the time cos villains can see on the HUD I fold too often to a 5bet.

That is my thinking right now anyway, but I am pretty unsure tbh.

The play certainly feels a lot better to me if you had misread action and thought it was a BB 3bet vs BTN.

I saw your earlier post about folding to 5bets too much. What's not clear to me is why you don't polarise your 4bets in the bb vs btn scenario, ie balance your 4bet value hands with hands that you would otherwise fold to the 3bet,eg k2s.

If we flat AQs, we may get stacked by dominating hands, but that was happening anyway if we were 4bet/calling. If we whiff completely we can just fold, but there are a lot of boards where we will have good equity giving us the optio to float or raise depending on villain tendencies.

But hey, I'm a breakeven player so don't take my word as gospel, just trying to advance the debate.

Ian

Right ok, we are on the Btn the pot is unopened and we raise and face a 3bet from the BB.

The thing is I have polarised my 4Bet value hands with "bluffs". Any hand that I 4Bet and subsequently fold to the 5Bet would technically be one of my "4Bet bluffs".

Your argument is that rather than 4Bet Bluff a decent hand such as KQo, we should use a trashy hand like K2s.

Well 25% of the time in FR the villain will flat the 4Bet and we are now playing a very inflated pot with a hand that can only really hit the King or a FD as the 2 is practically useless. Granted a cbet will take down the pot sometimes, but you could say that for any hand.

I get the point that when we face a 5bet we can happily fold K2s cos it is weak. However I would also say that K2s only has the K for blocker effects, where as KQo obvs has a K and a Q. This would suggest to me that due to blocker effects K2s would face a 5bet more often than KQo would.

When we 4Bet bluff we want to win the pot preflop, not face a 5bet.

The point is when we 4Bet we are looking to call a 5bet around 62% of the time.

Due to position we will be opeing the Btn wide. If we open say 50% on the Btn and then we respond to the 3bet in the following manner:

Fold: 60% (Fold Range: 30%)
Call 3Bet: 30% (Call Range: 15%)
4Bet: 10% (4Bet Range: 5%)

We need 5% Range to 4bet with. Then when we face a 5bet to avoid getting exploited and having villains 5Bet ATC to turn a profit against us we need to defend around 62%.

5% * 0.62 = 3.1%

We need to stack off on the Btn with around 3.1% of hands

AA, KK, QQ, AKo, AKs, = 2.6%

We still need to add 0.5% to that range and that is why I have AQs (0.3%) in there. I put in there mainly for its blocker effects to AA and QQ in the hope that it doesnt have to face the 5bet too often.

No doubt somebody smarter than us has the solution to this, but this is just my current thinking.

It prob depends alot on the games and stakes. At the micros you are prob better off keeping a very tight stacking off range, which is what I did. But at 50-100NL I am getting 5bet a lot more than the average.

If I want to keep a 2.6% stacking off range then I need to lower my 4bets. If I lower my 4Bet range, that range becomes very value heavy and obvious. Thus I dont get paid off when I have AA and KK cos villains will just fold to the 4bet if I have nitty ranges.

I think there is a bigger picture than just worrying about having to call off the 5bet the odd time with AQs. It prevents villains from having a plan of 3bet/5bet with ATC when they see we dont fold often enough to make that profitable for villain. It allows us to bulk up the 4Bet range, which makes us harder to play against and also helps get our AA and KK paid off.

I think if I keep an eye on the pot odds I am offered when facing the 5bet and the villains 5bet range then I should know roughly if I can stack off or not. Then perhaps if I am forced to fold AQs some of the time where it doesnt look good to stack off then I would be as well checking this when facing the 3bet and I can then say, I cant stack off here with AQs I will adjust this time and flat the 3bet IP.

Back to my conspiracy theory that I think villains are 5betting me more than the average bear.

Hand from last night, we are on the Btn with AKs and face a 3bet. The villain is a reg and the bad news is he has a 5bet Range of 1.1%, given that AA and KK make up 0.9% that means this guy only gets it in with the nuts and perhaps very rarely as a bluff - when he thinks his opponent folds to 5bets too much.




A3s lovely. If I was paranoid before that I am getting 5bet often I am even more para now. The fold to 5bet stat is slow to develop and takes a lot of hands to get any samples on. Yet most villains seem to 5bet me way more often than the avg reg. I face a 5bet 38% compared to others who seem to face a 5bet only 20% of the time.

My 4bet range may have been a bit un-disciplined at times but I dont think it was wildy off the charts to attract so many 5bets. Would lead me to think a lot of regs data mine to get the info that I was exploitable vs a 5bet.


Oh look somebody else queuing up to 5bet me, join the club buddy

I'd prefer using JJ to be honest. Okay it doesn't have blockers so it's probably going to face a 5bet a bit more but it'll do better against a 5betting range than AQs imo

I think you are right. I was just calculating some stuff for JJ as you sent this.

Everything I have tried to calculate so far seems to show JJ as being better to 4bet and call the 5bet compared to AQs.

I think JJ does a lot better against the villains 4bet call range when we go to a flop.

Although JJ doesnt have any blockers to villains hypothetical 5bet range (AA, KK, QQ, AKo, AKs) The blocking effect only wins us a small pot preflop (around 13.5bb) when villain folds his 3bet to our 4bet.

But against that 5bet range JJ has 36.19% equity
compared to 28.61% equity for AQs

so although AQs blocks 10 combos from that 5bet range it doesnt compensate for how poorly it does in the 200bb pot when we are both all in.

JJ takes 36.19 equity of the 200bb pot which is pretty significant.


Might have to adjust my ranges at least villains will be confused as fk when they play against me. Villains must have been note taking along the lines of "Idiot stacks off with AQs pre"

And then I guess that prob backs up what Ian_944 was saying about using K2s as a 4bet bluff as opposed to AQs or KQs or KQo or whatever.

Although hands with 2 broadways have better blocking effects, the blocking effects only win us a relatively small pot when villains folds to the 4bet.

Where as your AQs, KQo, KQs are prob best flatting the 3bet and taking a flop especially IP.

Might have to rethink my 4bet bluffs. Back to the drawing board.

I'd be more likely to use something like K2s and I'm 4betting 12% on the button versus resteals. It may be different if we're against villains who are calling 4bets more though but that isn't really happening too much at my stakes.

Think I am 4betting on the Btn ~9% and the benchmark winning players are ~11%.

I remember a Matt Janda video or article where he was promoting the idea of calling 4bets pretty wide and then just dealing with the situation on the flop. If most people are constructing their 4bet range to be very polar with all the nut hands and 4bet bluffs such as K2s then they wont have too many medium strength hands in their 4bet range.

That would back up that theory that it could be good to flat 4bets quite wide, for example if we are in the BB and facing a Btn 4bet. I usually worry that my KQo, AQo, AJo, KJo etc are going to get dominated by the Btn's AK AA KK, but in actual fact we prob dominate alot of the Btn 4bet bluff range.

Just thinking about this 4Bet Bluff range on the Btn again, vs BB 3bet.

If we are thinking of 4bet bluffing a hand like K2s. Are we using K2s rather A2s because villain is more likely to flat vs a 4bet with big A hands like AJs where as he may fold KJs KJo KTo etc, therefore we dont get dominated as often using K2s compared to A2s.

Then also, if we go with Kx for reasons above. Then why is K2s preferred as 4bet bluff as opposed to K8s??

Same blocker value with the K. Then is the 8 not gonna win us more pots the times villain decides to flat the 4bet with 22-66 to set mine, and we hit the 8 and make top pair??

Or can we really use any Kx suited to 4bet bluff and when we are saying "K2s" it is just to emphasize that we should be using something semi-trash with a good blocker??

From my point of view K8s and K2s are pretty much the same and I will use both to 4bet bluff, depending on villain. I'll also 4Bet A2s sometimes but I'd say it's strong enough to have in a 3bet calling range.

Yes, I was just making the point that we want a hand that we are happy folding to a 5bet. I would use the top of my folding range and work down, so if K8s is the first hand that falls into your fold range, then move it to your 4bet, then K7s, etc.

In your earlier post you raised a concern on villain flatting our trash 4bet bluff hand. Sure, not an ideal outcome for us. But remember that they're playing against our entire range OOP, we also have AA, AK, etc. in that same range on the flop. We need some air to fire at A high flops anyway

Ian