thanks mate

The last few sessions have been loss loss loss

My bankroll had dropped to $590 so I cashed in my fpps via the Sunday Storm Sattys and my bankroll is now $650 so still on the verge of dropping down.

Feels like I have been really up against it lately, here are all my stacking from my last 4 sessions when the bad run started:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $10.35
UTG+1: $26.10
UTG+2: $31.57
MP1: $10.25
MP2: $27.65
Hero (CO): $26.00
BTN: $25.00
SB: $26.20
BB: $30.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 6 6
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, UTG+2 raises to $1.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50

Flop: ($5.35) T 3 6 (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets $2.25, MP2 calls $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($12.10) 9 (3 players)
UTG+2 bets $4.75, MP2 calls $4.75, Hero raises to $22.50 all in, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls $17.75

River: ($61.85) 5 (2 players - 1 is all in)




Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $8.51
Hero (BTN): $26.50
SB: $20.88
BB: $25.00
UTG: $23.76
UTG+1: $33.81
UTG+2: $23.86
MP1: $17.72
MP2: $21.90

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with K Q
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.10) Q 5 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($12.10) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls $3.75

River: ($19.60) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB raises to $15.50 all in, Hero calls $5.50




Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $27.20
BTN: $26.84
SB: $13.89
BB: $23.42
Hero (UTG): $25.68
UTG+1: $27.05
UTG+2: $21.97
MP1: $26.20
MP2: $23.90

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises to $1.25, 6 folds, Hero raises to $3, UTG+2 calls $1.75

Flop: ($6.35) 8 J T (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG+2 raises to $6, Hero raises to $22.68 all in, UTG+2 calls $12.97 all in

Turn: ($44.29) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($44.29) A (2 players - 2 are all in)



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $27.15
SB: $16.06
BB: $25.35
UTG: $27.40
UTG+1: $15.52
MP1: $25.00
Hero (MP2): $25.00
CO: $12.34

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with K K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to $7.10, Hero raises to $25 all in, UTG+1 calls $8.42 all in

Flop: ($31.39) 7 Q T (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($31.39) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($31.39) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.00
Hero (UTG+1): $25.35
MP: $25.97
CO: $38.47
BTN: $30.79
SB: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN raises to $30.79 all in, Hero calls $20.85 all in

Flop: ($51.05) 2 4 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($51.05) A (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($51.05) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)




Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $42.31
BB: $22.99
UTG: $10.00
UTG+1: $10.00
MP: $10.62
CO: $43.18
Hero (BTN): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q Q
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, SB raises to $42.31 all in, Hero calls $20 all in

Flop: ($50.25) K J 8 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($50.25) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($50.25) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: $11.12
CO: $35.33
BTN: $9.65
SB: $11.47
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $25.74
UTG+1: $26.60
MP1: $10.92

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with J J
4 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, CO raises to $5.30, Hero calls $3.05

Flop: ($10.70) 8 5 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5.40, Hero calls $5.40

Turn: ($21.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11.10, Hero raises to $14.30 all in, CO calls $3.20

River: ($50.10) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Still alive and just had one of them profit session things, thats positive right.

I could post some more disgusting bad beats but dont want this turning into a moaning hard luck story so lets just get on with it.

Hey, just reading your thread! Subbed & GL, I'm in a similar boat.

Thanks and GL to you too

You're clearly running really bad and from the HH's you can't do much more about it. I know it's seriously tilting to run bad, but when it ends you'll be a much better player for it. Trust me I know! I was 120bi below ev at one point last year and thought it wouldn't end but it's well on it's way back now obv ev isnt the only for of run bad but you see what i mean

glgl mate

Thanks for the continued support.

129 BI under EV wow you must have developed some mental strength after that. I run 30 BI under EV @ 10nl and it felt like the world was against me.

In truth i did hit a bad patch of variance recently at 25nl but in reality im only running 4 BI under EV so its nothing major really. I think the main point is that I am basically a BE player at 25nl just now for these 35k hands I have played. I have basically swung between being 8 BI up or 6 BI down depending on how variance is treating me. Bottom line is I need to improve before I can move up.

Been doing a lot more studying of the game right now. I believe that something like 50% of our winnings are from AA and KK.

Well I was looking at my winrate for both these hands:

AA: 1200 bb/100
KK: 900 bb/100

and I looked at other high winning players in my database and their winrates were around:

AA: 3600 bb/100
KK: 1800 bb/100

^I am significantly behind these stats so I am going to look to improve my winrate with AA and KK. I occasionally cold call with these hands but looking at my stats I am 3betting or 4 betting a huge % of the time. So based on some training videos Ive been watching Im gonna look for more spots to cold call PF. Perhaps aim for something like 20% cold call preflop and 80% 3 bet with these hands.

I tried this today with AA and cold called PF and the villain flopped a set and stacked me lol. I accept there will be a lot of variance in this.

Bloody hell mate ... your running good or im running bad.

This year so far

AA - Zoom 605bb/100 , Regular 943bb/100

KK - Zoom 754bb/100 , Regular 789bb/100

In gl op. Check your hh with aa kk. Idk how it is at nl25 but at nl5-10 if i had overpaid facing flop raise and i called i lost 90%+ maybe u can check your hh for that

Not sure of your overall sample sizes, but it can take 500k-1milly hands to even out ev/AA/KK true bb/100 etc. Just keep playing good!

U could also try comparing your aa kk bb/100 stats to yourself at nl10 to see how you did at that stake

Bankroll = $775

Figured that with villains stack size here it wouldn't be too difficult to get the money in post-flop and given that I was UTG and the villain had a high fold to 4bet I figured it would be best to call his 3bet rather than 4bet and reveal my hand strength.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $15.42
BB: $10.00
Hero (UTG): $29.88
UTG+1: $27.54
MP1: $25.00
MP2: $18.30
CO: $14.74
BTN: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, CO raises to $1.80, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.05

Flop: ($3.95) Q 4 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, CO raises to $5.50, Hero raises to $15, CO calls $7.44 all in

Turn: ($29.83) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($29.83) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Excellent of read and good job getting his stack

ty

btw to recap when I stated:

"and I looked at other high winning players in my database and their winrates were around:

AA: 3600 bb/100
KK: 1800 bb/100"

^I realised that those win rates are totally inaccurate. They were from opponents in my HEM. But obv this isnt a true reflection of the AA KK win rates as I only get to see their cards when these hands go to showdown. So everytime they have AA pf and they raise and every one else folds pf I dont get to see their cards.

Schoolboy error by myself.

I have tried Googling win rates for AA and KK but really cant find much on it.

Ah thats true too, i have 150k hands rush nl5 from 2011, I'll take a look in a bit and tell u my bb/100

AA 5542bb/100 686 hands
KK 3233bb/100 769 hands
And this is fr rush this so over playing them as over pairs also. Had a hard time letting them to to a flop raise and most of those times i was bad so it should be higher had i played with more discipline and folded when villain told me i was behind...
Total hands of this database is 154,448

Haven't checked on this thread since i posted originally but the progress is really good. That red line you got going is pretty nice, gl bud.

Wooow awesome winrate with AA and KK thanks for sharing that with me. Confirms that my game needs a lot of work in this area. No wonder I am only BE if this what regs are getting from these hands.

Im gonna pm you about this subject when I have more time if you dont mind.

No problem man glad to provide any help i can. I mostly was a losing reg but found a guide that helped me start winning when i was able to follow it to a t.

Thanks mate.

Tbh my red line was positive for a long stretch. However im often paranoid that Im not playing optimally if my stats are not fitting into the ranges suggested by leakbuster and books. My turn cbet was quite high at over 50% which was a big factor in having positive non showdown winnings. However, i was led to believe this was a leak and my turn cbet should be around 35-40%

Thus I worked on looking for situations to not cbet the turn, for example with Medium PP in position complying with small hand = small pot theory. I reduced my turn cbet to 40% which has increased my showdown winnings but sent my red line crashing.

I was doing my own analysis in HEM last night, I created several merged aliases from winning players at over 3bb/100 and they all had turn cbet of around 49% and this was with a very large sample of hands and players.

So i now feel inclined to increase my turn cbet again. I feel more natural playing aggressive and I dont like to check the turn when there is a flush draw on board.

I found a post from Blackrain79 stating his win rates:

"I have used a big sample from NL5. It's 1/2 million hands. I actually did this recently with a friend and our numbers weren't off by that much with premiums. There was a much bigger difference in non-premium hands. The discussion was in this post if you missed it.

I used EV bb/100 like you.

AA 1235
KK 678
QQ 462
JJ 271
AKs 195
AKo 159
AQs 149
AQo 58"

I wouldn't worry about tryna get your stats to match a specific number. Just exploit villains as much as possible and take the line u feel is best given the situation and let the stats fall where they fall. Your style is a lil diff than most that I've seen. Most have flat or downslope red and upslope blue but u keep your blue flat and red goin up. So u are likely to have diff post flop stats due to diff way u make ur profit.

I forgot, u kinda switched your play but u said u used to have positive red flat blue right?

This was my last 100k hands @ 10NL

3.2 bb/100
Agg% 42
Flop Cbet: 70
Turn Cbet: 53

Red Line is only slightly decreasing