Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnotronic
Sick results ITT.
What advice would you give a 5nl player who wants to make it up to 200/500z some day? What's the fastest way to do it?
I've actually thought more than once about the situation where one is about 18-20 years old and has no money, but wants to start in poker and the following is what I came up with. Let's face it, 5nl is essentially starting in poker. What I think the best path would be if you are serious about poker, is to combine live poker, online poker and an hourly-paid job such as working in a supermarket / cleaning etc. I would get my real life job for a start to make money and deposit some amount online, let's say $200. I would, with the experience I have about the poker world now (which I did not have when I started), use online purely for getting better and live as means to make money.
The most optimal path in my opinion is to start at microstakes online (start at 2nlz), and move up once you know you beat it. Don't stick to 2nl when you easily beat it, even when you haven't won money there. It's okay to move up if you are down 50bi's at one point, but won 30bi's back. It's okay to move up in my opinion, despite still being a lifetime loser. There's no need to waste time at lower stakes than you can beat, just for the sake of 'proving' you can beat it. Then, once you reach 10nlz / 25nlz, you start playing live 1/2. Anyone that beats 10nlz online, I'm convinced will win at essentially any 1/2 live lineup.
Once you start playing 1/2 live and have a comfortable roll from both 1/2 and the real life job, you quit the real life job. I'd consider comfortable roll as something in the region of 5-8k, assuming the player 100% crushes 1/2. You want to quit the job, as 1/2 live will earn way more than the real life job and money at this point can be used to improve one's game effectively by getting coaching. From this point onwards you just keep playing live to build the roll and spend parts of it on online poker and coaching, and at about 20k you take shots at 2/5 live whilst still playing online to get better, and move up to 5/10 and above depending on how good the game is / your confidence etc. Once you're at this point, there isn't really any pressure anymore as you should be overrolled for 2/5 live, and that game will make more money than essentially any real life job could that is in reach for most people.
I think, to my knowledge, this is the fastest way of moving up in poker. Now, once you reach 10/20 live, you will struggle to always find a good 10/20 game and this is where online comes into play again. This is basically the point where you decide to either keep playing the higher stakes live, as the games above 10/20 won't run without a spot and therefore a fair few players that are happy playing 50/100, will be in the 10/20 games a fair bit. Therefore, if you beat 10/20, you should theoretically beat 50/100. However, these games don't run very often whereas 5/10 online will run and the best 5/10 online players will earn more than 10/20 live players. So, now that you've reached the point in your poker career in which you play 10/20 live, you also reached the point where your networth is going to be around 6 figures. If you want to keep making your hourly higher and are prepared to work hard for it I'd suggest at this point to study a lot and start playing the 5/10+ online games. This is where it gets really tough though and for some of us I'd imagine impossible.
With regards to the real-life job part that I suggested, I really believe that if 2 players that are broke and playing micros, both want to play poker as a job and one gets a real life job to support the first few months and the other does not, then the one that has the real life job will make it to the higher stakes quicker. Having 5k compared to 0 is just so important and having like 5k combined with beating 1/2 live is so profitable, however for most 18-20 year olds out of reach and I think this is a big part of the reason why they don't end up playing poker as a job.
With regards to your specific question, I realize my reply here doesn't exactly answer it and I just wrote a story on how to most efficiently, in my opinion, 'make it' in poker. I guess what that means and, if anything, what you can take from my reply, is that you should probably not necessarily focus on beating 200z/500z online, but rather on making most money in poker, as beating especially 500z is really damn tough and will take a very long time and for most of us, not be near as profitable as live poker. You should take into account that for a very big part of the journey of playing purely online, you won't make ANY money. the first 5 stake jumps that you make, will likely take 100s of thousands of hands and you will make no money at all. This is why I suggest adding live poker.
For me personally, I did take the path which I believe is suboptimal and just played lots online and multitabled. The following graph is my lifetime results at 2nl, 5nl and 10nl.
This is essentially the first 300k hands of online cash I played. That means altogether probably 600 hours of playing and after rakeback I made $900. Keep in mind that most of this money was spend on playing 25nl, and you realize that a very long period of starting in poker will result in zero profit, hence I believe adding the lowest stakes live is the quickest path to moving up in stakes even if you plan on playing online in the long run. A big part of this is also that if you don't play live, you won't see results and won't make money and likely give up before actually haven given it a real chance, due to pressure from parents / environment / money issues etc.
I hope this helped...
I know I wrote a wall of text but it is what I think is the best thing to do. Let me know if there's anything else I can give my opinion on... I'm happy to write!