This is my third day playing at Winstar. Table is most solid I've faced, with two or three decent players, a couple regfish, and some bad LAGs. Villain is one of the better LAGs and has a big stack. He is very aggressive and pretty loose but plays fairly transparently. I have seen him raise in position over limpers several times, then C-bet, often firing again on the turn and river. Over the ~2 hours I've been at the table, villain has C-bet 100% when PFR. I am convinced he often has air.
I've been involved in one hand with villain, in a small raised pot, where I had 87s and he had Q7o and we split the pot after hitting a straight. In this pot on the flop, I had top pair + a gutshot, while villain had a gutshot + flush draw. We got it in when the turn made the straight, and villain seemed upset not to have won the pot. He chastised me for not folding on the flop, saying he had more outs. I mention this hand because it tells me three things:
- villain will play a wide range of hands in a raised pot (e.g, Q7o)
- villain has some level of understanding of outs and pot odds but does not seem to grasp that a made hand does not necessarily need outs to continue, and there are likely other serious holes in villain's theory and approach
- villain sees me as a weak/tight fish
OTTH
Winstar $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
SB: $250.00
BB: $250.00
UTG: $250.00
UTG+1: $250.00
UTG+2: $250.00
MP1: $250.00
MP2: $250.00
CO: $600.00
Hero (BTN): $250.00
Pre Flop: ($2.00) Hero is BTN with A
K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, UTG+2 calls $2, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2,
CO raises to $10,
Hero raises to $35,
6 folds, CO calls $25
Flop: ($80.00) J
2
2
(2 players)
CO checks,
Hero bets $50,
CO raises to $100, Hero ?
I figured since villain checked, and since I had been playing insanely tight villain would put my 3-bet range on {JJ+, AK} or even tighter, and therefore I most likely have an overpair while he most likely has nothing, so I C-bet, and he check-raises.
This is a really crummy spot to be in. I have $165 behind. I don't think I'm deep enough to float effectively, plus this villain is likely to barrel most turns anyway. My options appear to be shove or fold. I think on this flop, villain has nothing or very close, but I don't feel good about shoving with nothing but overcards. Also, villain plays trashy hands so I can't completely discount he has a 2, but I think it's unlikely.
My read is villain sees me as a weak tight fish, or a nit, since I'd been playing very few hands (card dead), that villain is insightful enough to see this flop misses most of my range, that villain thus interprets my flop C-bet as mostly air, and that I will likely fold to a check-raise.
If I raise all-in to 215, villain will have pot odds of 395:115 or 3.43:1. With pot odds this good, villain could well call down with his air like QT which is only a 2:1 dog. Of course, villain should assume if I shove I have JJ+ almost always, given my table image is super tight, so he might fold everything but a random 2.
A) Flat or 3-bet preflop?
B) AP, check or C-bet flop?
C) AP, shove or fold?
D) Does the decision change significantly with deeper stacks (300-400)?