$2/$5 NL

2 limps. I raise to $30 with KsQc. SB goes all in for $40. First limper folds. Second limper (V1) calls and I call obviously.

V1 ($600) he plays about 50/50 2/5 and 5/10. Hes pretty solid but more on the nitty side. He gets paid off a lot with big hands at 2/5 and complains that 5/10 is too tight (my translation is 5/10 guys are too smart to pay him off because they know hes a nit).

Hero ($450)

Flop ($125) Ad Tc 7d. V1 checks. Im not sure what a nitty guy limps with in EP and then calls $40. I assume its a pocket pair, possibly AK, JTs type hand?

Do you bet this flop and if so why or why not?

Hard to have a view on this without some read on SB. If he can have ATC here, then bluffing here may make sense, because we can possibly beat SB unimproved. If he usually has Ax, Broadway, pocket pairs and some SCs, there's no real good reason to bluff here. We're basically ahead of only KJ, 98 and (maybe) 65 or 54 out SB's range, so we're going to have to improve to win even if V1 folds. Not going to risk a 1/2 PSB in order to take down the pot on some rare occasions that SB whiffed this flop.

Would also be different on some raggedy low flop. For instance, if flop is 443, we're now ahead of more of SB's range and a bluff may make more sense.

Basically, I am also never betting this flop. Hard to see what it accomplishes. Only reason to bet IP is to bet small and hope it buys us a free river trying to make Broadway.

No. Lighting money on fire.

He calls if he has an ace and he (maybe) folds if he doesn't. There is also a high chance Mr. $40 has an ace or pair too, so why would you bluff your only potential customer out of the pot? If you turn a jack you'll kick yourself.

Check it down. Hope to make the nuts or a pair on the turn/river.

What if V1 has a pocket pair like 99 or lower that he would fold to a bet? I have no idea what SB has but KQ could easily have him beat.

Last I checked there are two more betting streets after the flop.

It's not like this is your one and only chance to bet.

The longer I wait to bet, the less chance he folds a pocket pair

What's your range for SB's shove? There actually aren't a lot of hands that KQ is ahead of on this flop. Say he has all pocket pairs, all aces, all broadway, connectors 54+ and suited one-gappers 64+. That's about 37% of hands. Out of all of that, we can only beat KJ, QJ, 98, 86s, 65, 64s and 54 without improving. If I did the math right, we're currently ahead about 25% of the time against that range, some of which has a lot of outs to improve, and all of which has a meaningful number of out. We have a total of 36.5% equity, but a lot of that is when we improve turn or river. So effectively we're bluffing to win the pot some percentage of the time that V doesn't already have one pair.

And you can't see any potential positives in waiting to bet until a future street?

Definitely not betting this flop. More likely to bluff into a dry side pot when I have good equity, like two overs to the board or overs and a gutter.

I'd bet 40 w my gtr + 2 overs to middle pair + FE with intent on betting most turns to free roll the main.

Never betting here.
In regards to dry side pots I usually keep them dry unless I have a hand worth getting value with.

That's exactly what I did.

I've thought about this more, and pretty much the only reason I'm betting here is if I think V1 can fold an ace. If I can get V1 off of an ace, then even though I probably still am behind the SB, I pick up 6 extra outs to win the whole pot when SB has a pair below QQ, which gives a ton more equity.

Mike - What's your estimate on how often you win the pot unimproved if V1 folds. I think it's probably only about 20% of the time.

That's probably pretty close. Preflop I'm thinking Im probably a coin flip with SB but now that an ace flops and no K or Q, Ive got to be way behind. Probably better to check the flop I guess.

That's how I see it. You basically have all the downside of a semi-bluff here (if V1 calls, you probably need to bink your J to win) but only 20% of the upside in taking down the pot if he folds. Of course, sometimes V1 folds, and you end up improving and beating the SB, but in that case unless V1 can fold an ace you probably improved to beat V1 too. Finally, sometimes, V1 folds and even if you're ahead of SB he has a lot of outs and binks.

The reason to bluff here is because you can take the pot down now. That's a lot harder with the other guy in. Check.

I'm surprised no one is advocating a 4 bet pre to pick up the dead money and iso against the small-all in.

Probably because we can't raise

So I bet $40 on the flop and he beat me into the pot. Turn was a J and he led $45 into the $200 pot. I couldn't for the life of me put him on a hand here.

Hes fairly nitty.

He limped and then called $40. That makes me lean towards a pp or maybe AK/AQ. Not sure he he raises big aces in EP.

He check/called my rather small flop bet on a Ad Tc 7d flop and then leads out on a Js turn? He shouldnt have a flush draw here since the Ad is on the board. I dont think he could have 98 and limp/call $40.

I think he has to have a big ace. Maybe hes leading the turn so I cant check behind?

Raise to $150 and shove river. Absolutely must build the side pot now.

I raised to $200 and he insta folded.