I was a "mathlete" in school growing up( such a classic lol term). Won a few contests, placed in several others. I have always had a knack for math - able to multiply numbers while in preschool and such. I took math classes with the grades above me - i.e. would walk to high school for math class when I was in middle school. I am far far from what you see on 60 minutes with those "rainman" savant type guys. I can do simple math in my head pretty well to a certain degree, but nothing that is extremely rare.

In college I majored in computer engineering - kind of a mix between electrical engineering and computer science. Engineering major comes with a lot of Calculus and such... but I did not pursue any kind of math minor/major. FWIW - I don't get any kicks out of differential equations and ugghh math like that... but odds are a fun challenge. Problems like the one above (the high hand one) take me ~couple of hours, and I am using a calculator or even excel when necessary (for numbers the calculator won't fit). So if I am giving off the impression I am typing that on the fly - sorry, that is not the case.

I continue to work in software/electronics for my job. I have to use math most days in my job, and the use/practice definitely helps keep skills sharp.

Restricted SF ways (no counterfeit card, needed hole card, or "double count" card on board)
I missed one here:
4suits * 9ranks [QJTxx - 432xx] with [K9-5A] * 46*45/2 xx

= 1035 * 4 * 9 * 10 categories = 372,600

9 seats * 372,600 / (2,598,960 * 1,081) =

So odds (*slightly exaggerated because of double counting when two people get SF at once) = 1/837.80

... which changes the overall result a little too:

You have 180 hands for these three things to happen in order. On the other 177 hands these three things must NOT happen... 1 - (1/600.76) = 0.998335
1/7219.33 + 1/837.80 + 1/3008.056 = 1/600.76

(0.998335)^177*1/7219.33*1/837.80*1/3008.056*180!/(177!*3!)
Grand total odds of this happening in 6 hours of play at a 9 handed table are = 1/25,563

Hi Bip!

Last session I played 10.5 hours without flopping a set!

Now for me, I know the chances of that ever happening again are less than 0%. But what about for normal players?

GI'mtoolazytoodothemathmyselfandyoulookedboredG

lol. To put this in perspective, APD claims an 88 hour set-less streak. That and some claims by ILCD in the chat thread are what led to this thread.

Mr. Sunrunner,
To get a PP = 1/17
I will assume you see all flops
To "dodge" a set on the flop = 48/50*47/49*46/48 = 0.882449
To get a set (or quads) on the flop = 1 - 0.882449 = 0.11755

So the odds of hitting a set on hand X are 1/17 * 0.11755 = 0.006915 ~= 1 in 144.6

So the odds of missing a set on a hand are 1 - 0.006915 = 0.993085

The odds of missing a set for 10.5 hrs * 30 hands / hr = 315 hands =
(0.993085)^315 = 11.23% ~= 1 in 8.9

So about every 9th 10.5hr session you will be set less.

Keep crushing GG!

Wow, every 9th session without flopping a set! I don't know if I could mentally handle a run bad like that! How do you guys manage?

Gthanksbip!G

*mpethy estimates players see ~80% of flops when they have a PP (missing flops either through us folding or everyone else folding).. this actually makes it longer odds to make a set 0.0055318 ~= 1 in 180.77

Thus odds to miss a set+ on hand X are 1 - 0.0055318 = 0.994468
(0.994468)^315 = 17.42%. .. ~1 in every 5.74 sessions.

Or in GG odds... every leap year.

Just showed some peeps from the game with the high hand you worked out for me.
Table is in awwwww of your astonishing werks...
They applaud you and we all agree
"BIP FOR PRESIDENT"
Thanks again sir.

Hey bip. Another somewhat meaningless problem I have been trying to figure out for fun. Mostly I have just been messing around with the holdem odds calculator.

What set of 9 hands and a flop give the flopped "nuts" its lowest possible equity? Simply by messing around with the calculator I have come up with this:

[IMG]http://s24.************/ti324b751/worsteq.jpg[/IMG]

Already I am perhaps seeing flaws though as I don't think we want the meaningless hands to share cards as it gives AA less running outs. Give it a shot!

Good question - I will see what I can find

Beat that

My example has the nuts, with 5.67%, yours is 18.23%. Perhaps you are thinking of it differently.

Does it go down even more if you give one of the other useless hands two hearts (for runner runner flush outs)? ETA: Whoops, just saw that you do have a heart/heart hand, nevermind.

46hh is already there.

I found 0% equity (will post pic in second)

Rly? I found 0% but only on turn, with set of tens and T945 double suited run out.

Anything that doesn't make the other straights or a FH has to include either a diamond or two hearts - the nuts is drawing dead

Good question CWhite - I love these kind of "what if" scenarios.

I posted one in the chat thread a while back where AA was -EV putting money in preflop... anyone welcome to search and repost if interested.

Am I missing something? 76 holds up when it comes A 2 , no?

ETA: Damn, flush came in. I'm going to look some more, seems unbelievable!

GmissingsomethingG

C=== mind blown

bip! for mod, obv


Edit: if I ever get an avatar, that pic is high on the list in consideration

Lol, that's nuts. After spending a couple of minutes, I can't spot any, so I'll take your word for it.

Gfromnowonwaitinguntilrivertobetmynutsinordertomak esuretheyholdupG

Here's nuts drawing dead on turn.

Lol, the ol' set over set over set over set with top set being the only set drawing dead situation.

Gfoldingtopsetonaregularbasisnowaddedtomyalreadyim pressivearsenalG

Lesson of the day, don't slow play

(in the dead on the flop, only the other straight draw hands have to continue... the PPs (except for 99) can fold and you still lose)

All the brick brick runouts are blocked by other cards he has included in other players hands. My thoughts: "How can this be 0 what about 2-3 not making flush?" Black 2s and 3s both in players hands. Well done bip